FPI Predicts BYU vs Baylor, Updates BYU's Playoff Chances

Despite losing to Utah last weekend, the no. 10 BYU Cougars appear to be in control of their own College Football Playoff destiny. While winning out won't guarantee a playoff spot - the committee has proven they will make big changes to their rankings every week - BYU will have a great chance to make the playoff if it wins out. The Cougars host a dangerous Baylor team on Saturday that has played very well since firing Dave Aranda.

Here's what ESPN FPI says about BYU-Baylor and the remainder of BYU's schedule.

BYU FPI win probabilities for final games: vs Baylor 68.5%, at Kansas 72.5%, vs Cincinnati 84.3%. — BYU's win probabilities for the final three games of the season | BYU On SI

ESPN FPI gives BYU a 68.5% chance to beat Baylor at home. According to FPI, Baylor is the most difficult game remaining on BYU's schedule. If BYU can avoid a letdown after an emotional loss to rival Utah, the Cougars will be in great position to win out.

The Odds to Win Out

BYU no longer controls its own destiny to the Big 12 title game. To reach the title game, BYU will need to win out. To make the College Football Playoff, BYU will need to win out. If winning out is the only path to BYU's goals, what are the chances BYU wins out? According to FPI, BYU has a 42% chance to win out and finish the regular season 10-2. If BYU beats Baylor, its chances to win out will jump up to 61%. There is a lot riding on BYU-Baylor on Saturday.

BYU FPI regular season win probabilities: 8+ wins 98.6%, 9+ wins 84.8%, 10 wins 41.9%. — BYU's chances to reach each win threshold | BYU On SI

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The Latest on the Big 12 Title Race

BYU's chances to win the Big 12 dropped substantially after losing to Utah. To make the Big 12 title game, BYU needs to win out, and it needs both Texas Tech and Houston to lose at least one more game. Because Houston owns most tiebreakers over BYU, Houston has the same odds to win the Big 12 as BYU. Utah is the clear favorite with a 56% chance to win the league.

Big 12 title probabilities: Utah 55.8%, Texas Tech 17.5%, Houston 8.2%, BYU 8.1%, OSU 4.6%, Arizona 4.1%, Baylor 1.6%. — The chances for each Big 12 team to win the Big 12 title | BYU On SI

Oklahoma State, Arizona, and Baylor are still in contention for the conference title as well. All three of those schools would need to win out to make it to Arlington. Baylor is an interesting case. The Bears could knock down the door and force themselves into the conference championship game over the next few weeks. They take on title contenders BYU, Texas Tech, and Houston to close out the season.

College Football Playoff

Even though BYU has just an 8% chance to win the Big 12, it has a 41% chance to make the CFP. If that 41% figure sounds familiar, remember what BYU's chances are to win out? 42%. In other words, FPI believes that if BYU wins out, it will make it to the College Football Playoff.

Big 12 Playoff probabilities: Utah 89.7%, BYU 41.0%, Texas Tech 39.3%, Houston 21.8%, Arizona 8.7%, OSU 4.9%, Baylor 1.7%. — Chances for each Big 12 team to reach the College Football Playoff | BYU On SI

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