Assessing the Win Total Predicted for Cal Football in 2026

Will Cal exceed the 6.5 regular-season win total for Cal football in 2026?

It seems early to predict a win total, since the season is five months away, and the starters for the Bears’ offensive line and virtually the entire defense have yet to be established.

Not to mention that Cal has an entirely new coaching staff.

We’ll offer our opinion on the likelihood of Cal exceeding 6.5 wins, but first some recent history.

It seems there’s a rubber stamp that betting sites such as FanDuel apply to setting a regular-season win total for Cal.

In 2024, the Bears’ regular-season win total set by FanDuel was 6.5. In 2025, again it was 6.5. And guess what? This month FanDuel set the regular-season win total for Cal’s 2026 season at 6.5.

That suggests Cal is expected to win six or seven regular-season games in 2026, so if you believe Cal will have a winning season, you bet the over; if you think the Bears will have a losing season, bet the under.

The funny thing is that the win total set at 6.5 has been spot on for the Bears the past two regular seasons. Cal went 6-6 in 2024 and 7-5 this past season.

The 6.5 wins set by FanDuel for 2026 suggests Cal is expected to finish the regular season at 6-6 or 7-5 again.

Is that reasonable, based on Cal’s talent and the Bears 2026 schedule? Or is that underselling the Bears’ potential under new coach Tosh Lupoi. Or is that an optimistic win total given the vast number of changes Cal’s football program is undergoing?

The other variable in this equation is the strength of Cal’s 2026 opposition, which is difficult to predict.

CBS Sports' preseason prediction of Cal’s 2025 wins and losses is an example of how wrong the experts can be.

CBS Sports last year accurately picked the “Over” for the Bears, who won seven games after the betting line was set at 6.5 wins, but consider this:

CBS Sports predicted Cal would beat Oregon State, Texas Southern, San Diego State, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and Stanford.

Turns out Cal won only three of those seven games.

CBS Sports projected Cal would lose to Minnesota, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Louisville and SMU.

Cal wound up beating four of those five teams, the only correctly predicted loss was against Virginia Tech, which beat Cal in double overtime.

So eight of the 12 game predictions for Cal were wrong, but its advice to pick the “Over” for Cal was right.

So let’s look at the Bears’ 2026 season.

This time CBS Sports picks “Under” for Cal’s 6.5 win total in 2026, predicting Cal wins over UCLA, Wagner, Syracuse, Wake Forest and Stanford, with losses to Clemson, Virginia Tech, UNLV, SMU, North Carolina State, Virginia and Pittsburgh for a 5-7 regular season.

It added this comment:

Analysis: Tosh Lupoi's first priority as coach was to convince quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele to stay, and when that mission was accomplished, he hit the ground running in hopes of changing the culture throughout the program while making it his. If the Bears can navigate one of those challenging ACC road contests beyond the trip to New York, California can get to seven wins. The opener against UCLA is vital, too. Sagapolutele needs a better supporting cast, however. Pick: Under 6.5

FanDuel lists Cal as a 3.5-point favorite in its season opener against UCLA in Berkeley, and it lists Cal’s odds of winning the ACC title at 27-to-1, putting the Bears right in the middle of the pack in the conference.

While placing a lot of faith in quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, this is how we expect the season to go, noting that Cal benefits from not having ACC title contenders Miami and Louisville on its 2026 schedule:

September 5, UCLA at Cal – A matchup of UC programs with new head coaches goes to the home team. Cal 1-0

September 12, Cal at Syracuse – It’ll still be warm in upstate New York in September, and the Orange won’t have the talent to stay with Cal. Cal 2-0

September 19, Wagner at Cal – Do you even know where Wagner is located? (Psst, it’s in Staten Island, New York.) Cal 3-0

September 25, Clemson at Cal – The Tigers will be focused after last year’s disappointment, and Cal loses by a point. Cal 3-1

October 3, Cal at UNLV – The Rebels are 2026 Mountain West title contenders under second-year head coach Dan Mullen and may be too much for the Bears in Las Vegas. Cal 3-2

October 10, Virginia Tech at Cal – The Bears get a look at what new Hokies head coach James Franklin has to offer, but the Bears can win this one at home. Cal 4-2

October 17, Wake Forest at Cal – The Deacons were better than expected in their first year under Jake Dickert, but Cal will simply have more talent. Cal 5-2

October 24, Cal at SMU – The Mustangs have a decent shot at winning the ACC title, and facing SMU in Dallas may be too much for Cal. Cal 5-3

October 31, Cal at North Carolina State – Basically an even game, with the Wolfpack getting the nod at home. Cal 5-4

November 14, Cal at Virginia – The Cavaliers won a lot of tight games last year, but the odds will be reversed this season. Cal with the upset. Cal 6-4

November 21, Stanford at Cal – The Cardinal will be no better than it was last season, and Cal won’t forget that last season’s Big Game loss got Justin Wilcox fired. Cal wins big. Cal 7-4

November 28, Pittsburgh at Cal – Player availability plays a role this late in the season, and the matchup of rising sophomore quarterbacks (Mason Heintschel and Sagapolutele) will be telling. We’ll take Sagapolutele at home. Cal 8-4

This puts Cal two wins over the 6.5-win total set by FanDuel, with a ninth victory available in a bowl game.

This is simply a guess at this stage. There will be more clarity by the time August rolls around, and early-season games against UCLA and Syracuse will tell us more about Cal’s chances for success in 2026.