The One That Got Away: Fernando Mendoza Projected as a 1st-Round Pick

Both SI and The Athletic expect the former Cal quarterback to be a Day 1 NFL Draft pick in 2026

Fernando Mendoza during Indiana spring ball / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Fernando Mendoza, once an under-recruited long-shot college prospect, now is emerging as a potential first-round NFL draft pick in 2026.

Mendoza received just one FBS scholarship offer out of high school — from Cal. He became the Bears’ starting quarterback mid-way through his redshirt freshman season in 2023 season and passed for more than 3,000 yards last season.

Then he left, transferring to Indiana, where he will replace Kurtis Rourke, who led the Hoosiers to an 11-2 record last fall and was chosen by the 49ers in the seventh round of last week’s NFL Draft.

SI and The Athletic both have published way-too-early 2026 mock drafts, and Mendoza has found his way into the first round in both of them.

SI protects Mendoza as the No. 16 pick by the Pittsburgh Steelers. 

Here’s what SI's Bryan Fischer writes about the redshirt junior from Miami: 

At 6' 5" and 225 pounds, Mendoza looks like an NFL quarterback but really has a chance to elevate his stock by playing in the Big Ten after a quality campaign as a starter with the California Golden Bears. He has a bit of moxy and could be the actual long-term Big Ben successor in Pittsburgh. 

The Steelers continue to seek an answer at quarterback following the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger in 2021 after 18 seasons with the franchise.

If Mendoza were to end up in Pittsburgh, he might also become the successor to former Cal star Aaron Rodgers, 41, currently an unsigned free agent but still considering another season or two, perhaps with the Steelers.

Fischer envisions four quarterbacks taken among the first 10 picks next year, with Penn State’s Drew Allar going No. 3, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier at No. 5, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers at No. 6 and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik at No. 8. Mendoza is next on his list among QBs.

Noticeably missing from those projections is Texas quarterback Arch Manning, expected by many to be the top pick in 2026. SI’s projections were ranked according to the latest post-draft win totals at BetMGM, the story said.

Dean Brugler of The Athletic, meanwhile, projects Mendoza as the No. 27 pick by the Los Angeles Rams in the 2026 draft. 

Here’s what Brugler said about Mendoza:

The fifth quarterback drafted in this mock, Mendoza was a pleasant surprise when watching the Cal offense this past season. He transferred to Indiana in the offseason, and it will be interesting to track his progress under Curt Cignetti.

Brugler predicts that Manning will go No. 1 to the New Orleans Saints, which he notes has not selected a QB in the first round since taking Arch Manning's grandfather — Archie Manning — in 1971. Many observers believe Arch will remain in school through 2026.

Brugler projects Sellers at No. 2, Allar at No. 5 and Nussmeier at No. 16 (to the Steelers). He does not include Klubnik among his first-round selections. 

Without Mendoza, three players — Ohio State transfer Devin Brown, freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and redshirt freshman EJ Caminong — competed through spring practice at Cal in pursuit of the starting quarterback role. 

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