Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Keys to the Game: UCF Knights

UC cannot afford many more home losses this season.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Jan 26, 2024 7:35 AM EST

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CINCINNATI — The Bearcats men's basketball team is jumping off and on the NCAA Tournament bubble this season as a massive fulcrum game awaits next against old AAC foe Central Florida.

The Golden Knights are 3-3 in the Big 12, marked by a signature top-10 win over Kansas at home. They are also fighting for their tournament lives and could take a big leap into contention with a win on Saturday. They are currently ranked 67th in the NET and are the first Big 12 team projected not to make the tournament, with Cincinnati ranked eighth in the NET among Big 12 teams (37th overall).

UCF is ranked 69th on KenPom, to Cincinnati's 32nd overall mark. ESPN's Matchup Predictor has UC winning 77.6% of the time. The two teams have met 19 times in the regular season (UC is 14-5 in the all-time series).

When UCF Has The Ball

Constant attack mode.

That's how UCF plays offense as a downhill-focused team with plenty of solid finishers around the rim. Those players do a great job of hunting contact and overcoming poor shooting marks from most areas of the floor.

UCF shoots just 41.3% overall (324th nationally) and 47.4% from two (320th nationally), but they live at the free throw line (16.3 made free throws per game, 49th). Lead guard Jaylin Sellers (17.1 points, 4.4 rebounds) is their best and highest-volume free-throw shooter.

Containing his driving lanes and forcing the ball out of his hands is crucial in this contest. He holds the eighth-highest usage rate in the Big 12 and is third in the conference in total free throws made (82), so that won't be easy. Guarding without fouling is massive in this game as UC's frontcourt has to go straight up when defending shots and force UCF to overcome its rough shooting trends.

It's going to all happen at a quick pace as well. UCF tries to help its 200th-ranked offense by efficiency with a high tempo to induce more havoc from its defense. It leads to easier offense on the other end for a team that's shooting a measly 30.9% from deep (304th nationally). A few players can hit the deep ball efficiently, but this is a team that's made nine-plus threes in a game just three times this season.

Slow the game down, limit fast break chances, force Sellers to pass, and drive shot choices to the outside. Do that on defense and Cincinnati should be in great shape.

When Cincinnati Has The Ball

This is where UCF can control this game and pull off the upset. The Knights have one of the best defenses in the country, ranking sixth in adjusted efficiency on KenPom and 23rd in overall PPG allowed (64.3).

Every rotation player has a defensive rating of 96.3 or better and the unit bands together to create a ton of havoc. UCF ranks among the top three Power Conference teams in block/steal rate this season. Sellers (1.3 steals), Darius Johnson (13.2 points, 1.8 steals), and Shemarri Allen (7.2 points, 1.9 steals) bring the pressure on the perimeter.

While, 6-foot-10 forward Ibrahima Diallo (6.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.1 blocks) is a black hole around the rim. Cincinnati cannot be loose with the ball like it has been in two-thirds of its Big 12 games so far this season.

UCF thrives off of chaos and is willing to take chances if it means uncomfortable possessions and turnovers. Opponents average 15.4 turnovers per game against this nasty brick wall. Cincinnati is averaging 13.2 turnovers in its past six games (10 turns per game in non-conference). They have to be closer to single digits on Saturday night.

Sound ballhandling, and better shot-making. Cincinnati cannot keep bricking threes at this current rate. UCF boasts an elite 44.1% two-point rate allowed thanks to Diallo and company, but allows opponents to hit 33% of their threes (172nd nationally). No CJ Fredrick again in this game hurts those prospects, but players like Simas Lukošius (22.2% from deep in the conference) and more have shown strong shooting stretches before this season.

It's time to find those again, especially at home in Clifton.

Prediction: 62-60 Cincinnati

A throwback rock fight at Fifth Third Arena.

Diallo is hitting a nasty defensive form of late and I think he completely shuts down the Bearcats' interior attack, but Lukošius, Dan Skillings, and other perimeter names hit 10-plus threes to get enough offense on the board to carry a win against one of the best defensive teams in the country.

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