Three Bold Predictions for UC Basketball in 2022-23

Cincinnati tips of the season in just three days.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Nov 4, 2022 2:59 PM EDT

CINCINNATI — The Bearcats men's basketball team tips off the 2022-23 season this Monday against Chaminade with raised expectations in Year 2 of the Wes Miller Era.

The team turned over about half the roster from last season and now houses an interesting mix of transfers, veterans, and freshmen. That still includes six of the top-seven scorers from last season.

They also got into a full-scale strength and conditioning offseason program—the first for the team since the pandemic started. That should save them from another tired finish like last year (eight losses in the final 10 games).

Round it all up, and you get the AAC coaches picking UC to finish third in the AAC, while KenPom has the Bearcats in the same spot among AAC teams and 51st nationally. There are strong ingredients on this team for bold prediction recipes.

Here are my top-three bold thoughts three days before game's tip-off.

Landers Nolley Makes First-Team AAC

I have loved watching one of the newest Bearcats at practice over the past few weeks. Landers "Chezz" Nolley has fit in nicely on this roster, he conducts himself like a veteran, but knows how to keep things light during intense sessions.

The dude is a walking bucket-getter that has the stability he needs to reach his ceiling. Nolley has now transferred twice in college, struggling to fit in at Virginia Tech and Memphis. The latter brought on plenty of issues regarding his fit alongside Emoni Bates on offense. Still, Nolley averaged 9.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.8 assists last season.

From what I've watched at practice, he will get every opportunity to be the go-to offensive weapon on a higher-floor roster than UC sported last season. Nolley pursues the tough shots and moments that all UC greats have gone after.

He averaged 14.4 FG attempts per game his redshirt freshman year at Va Tech, and I see him hovering close to that mark on much better efficiency (38.6 FG% overall in his career). Miller won't give him a whopping 33.9% usage rate (first in 2019-20 ACC) as he had with the Hokies, but he should lean on Nolley.

I think he returns the favor with the best season of his college tenure surrounded by teammates who believe in him. The Georgia native makes first-team All-AAC, just like he did in 2020.

AP Top 25 Heading Into AAC Play

Cincinnati has the right mix of top-tier competition and buy games to vault from the 50-60 team range into the top 25 before they start AAC play. I wrote a few weeks ago about how this team will be more versatile, and thus harder to gameplan for in 2022-23.

I like the talent floor enough to think they'll be favored in 10 of the 13 games on the slate, including Maui. UC should at least be a slight favorite in their one true road game against Northern Kentucky (151st in KenPom).

The fulcrum games are the three contests in Maui, and the Crosstown Shootout at home against Xavier on Dec. 10. Call me crazy, but I think UC has the mentality and the overall talent to bounce back from a likely loss against Arizona (10th in KenPom) and win two more games in the loser's bracket.

The bottom of the field (Ohio State, Louisville) is not as daunting compared to the top five teams. If UC pulls an upset over the likes of Arizona, San Diego State, Arkansas, Creighton, or Texas Tech, they'll likely be in the rankings (or close) as the calendar turns to December.

All five of those teams have high expectations this season, and not one is outside the top 19 in KenPom. They define the second signature win opportunity UC is looking for under Miller after they beat Illinois in last year's holiday tournament.

In December, the Bearcats face one team inside KenPom's top-185, Xavier. Cincinnati hasn't beaten them on the road in the past 20 years and has dropped 7-of-9 games against the Musketeers. This is a good time to take advantage of a transition year for Sean Miller.

Xavier will be good (38th in KenPom), but I don't see them being great in Year 1 of Miller's return. UC needs to get it done to set up a path to the top 25 by the start of the new year.

Daniel Skillings Will Be A Key Rotation Player

The Bearcats' top-rated freshman on 247Sports impressed me in the preseason. At 6-foot-6, 205 pounds, Skillings hit the Monster Factory hard this offseason to help himself find playing time as quickly as possible.

He is coming off a strong AAU career, averaging 24.6 points and 10 rebounds for the Philly Pride, and was All-Pennsylvania out of Roman Catholic High School. The rebounding is what makes me confident he can play a role this season.

Energy, energy, energy.

That's how UC is going to make up for a size deficit in the frontcourt and beyond. UC players have to swarm like hornets to overcome the vertical challenge, and few players attacked the glass with more focus than Skillings in the practices I watched.

He is not a hero ball player, and it's clear he knows the gritty factors of the game are how he'll have to earn playing time. Skillings is going to be a huge piece of this program's future success in the Big 12, but he has a decent chance to impact the AAC as well.

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