2023 UC Football Game-By-Game Predictions Part 1

Cincinnati has an easier first half slate than during the back half of the season.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Updated:
Aug 18, 2023 9:01 AM EDT

In this story:

CINCINNATI — The 2023 UC football season kicks off in a little over two weeks, making it the perfect time for Part 1 of our game-by-game record prediction.

Oddsmakers don't project much out of this team as they hold a 5.5 win total (+140 over/-165 under) on DraftKings Sportsbook as of this writing. Still, they have one of the easiest schedules of any power conference team and get to six wins in 65.9% of ESPN FPI simulations.

The offense likely determines this ceiling.

Bryan Brown's defense is filled with talent at all three levels, while the offense returns one starter. If Emory Jones can find his 2021 heights and the run game comes together, there's no reason why this program shouldn't punch another bowl ticket in 2023.

Check back on Aug. 24 for Part 2 of our predictions.

Game 1: Eastern Kentucky - 49-14 Bearcats

The Colonels went 7-5 last year and did beat an FBS school (59-57 7OT win over Bowling Green), but they don't have much hope against Cincinnati.

The Bearcats have won all three FCS games this decade by 35-plus points and that trend could continue to open the 2023 season. EKU's offense should be a nicer test than normal FCS opponents as they return one of the FCS's best quarterbacks in Parker McKinney, their No. 1 wide receiver, No. 1 running back, and five offensive line starters. Still, their defense ranked 101st in FCS points allowed last year as Jones and Co. get a nice on-ramp into the season.

Game 2: @ Pitt - 24-21 Panthers

Pat Narduzzi's crew has flip-flopped reliable units in recent years, riding a hot offense in 2021 and a hot defense in 2022. That defense does just enough with some new pieces to get the win at home.

I don't expect Boston College transfer quarterback Phil Jurkovec to light things up in his second game—but the defense has consistently harassed QBs this decade (46 sacks or more in each of the last four years) and they return one of the better corner duos in the ACC with MJ Devonshire (75.3 2022 PFF Grade) and Marquis Williams (84.2 Grade).

The Panthers rely on that crew to get the win.

Game 3: Miami (OH) - 24-13 Bearcats

Brett Gabbert is back for Miami at quarterback, but that's the only big factor in an offense that couldn't run the ball well last year, has a patchwork line after portal entries/graduations, and lost top receiver Mac Hippenhammer.

Miami's defense should be a good test for UC—but if they can't get the ground game going against Dontay Corleone and Jowon Briggs they are dead on arrival. UC's top rival averaged 3.8 yards per carry last year and went 1-6 when they rushed for fewer than 120 yards.

Game 4: Oklahoma - 31-30 Sooners

Dillon Gabriel returns as the Sooners quarterback but doesn't have his top 2022 receiver and rusher in Marvin Mims and Eric Gray. Cincinnati should keep things close with that and more turnover from a 6-7 2022 Oklahoma team, but it won't be enough for the upset.

I don't see the UC offense having a ton of trouble against the second-worst Big 12 defense last season. Oklahoma allowed more first downs per game than any team in the country. As long as UC's new offensive line can hold up against a nice group of pass rushers, this game will come down to the final minutes.

Game 5: @ BYU - 27-24 Bearcats

A true coin flip game under the Friday Night Lights in Provo.

BYU has a similar amount of turnover and question marks as UC, albeit more so across the whole roster not just offense. A horrific 2022 defense onboarding a new staff and identity has me rolling with UC here.

BYU ranked 97th in points (29.5) and 94th in yards allowed (408.1) last season. Head coach Kalani Sitake brought in a new coordinator and multiple new coaches to fix the issue. QB Kedon Slovis moves from Pitt to BYU as a replacement for Jaren Hall. The 31.3 PPG unit last year is losing Hall and it's three other top players. They have just enough fits and starts early in the season for UC to get its first road win of the Scott Satterfield era.

Game 6: Iowa State - 20-16 Bearcats

An old-fashioned defensive war in the hardest game for me to pick so far. Iowa State's offense was a disaster in 2023, averaging the worst yards per carry among Big 12 teams (3.3 YPC) and 23 total turnovers (103rd nationally).

They return quarterback Hunter Dekkers, but he won't have his security blanket in WR Xavier Hutchinson making it hard for me to see this offense being a whole lot better in Year 1 with in-house OC promotion Nate Scheelhouse. The defense was the opposite last year and should be one of the Big 12's best once again. They will need to find another good pass rusher with the exit of Will Macdonald, but return one of the country's better corner duos in T.J. Tampa (83.1 grade) and Myles Purchase (63.1 grade).

UC's offense finds just enough success on the ground to pull this off.

UPDATE: Decker's has been caught up in a tampering probe related to sports gambling and did not participate in fall camp at Iowa State as the program turns to transfer Tanner Jughes or freshman JJ Kohl.