2023 UC Football Game-By-Game Predictions Part 2

Cincinnati has a tougher slate down the back half of the season.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Aug 24, 2023 10:58 AM EDT

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CINCINNATI — UC football kicks off the 2023 season next week making it a perfect time for Part Two of our game-by-game predictions. I have UC getting off to a nice 4-2 start in the Scott Satterfield era, but the Big 12 gauntlet starts taking its toll in Part Two.

Let's dive into the back half of the schedule.

Game 7: Baylor - 30-21 Bears

Another year with starting quarterback Blake Shapen should spell better results for the Bears. Shapen was up and down in 2022, passing for 2,790 yards and 18 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. If Shapen can play up to expectations then Baylor could be the best team UC faces all season.

The defensive line should be just better enough to bring the defense closer to 20 PPG allowed instead of the 26.6 allowed last year and give them a two-score win over UC.

Game 8: @ Oklahoma State - 34-31 Cowboys

Transfer quarterback Alan Bowman has the offense humming by this point in the season. The big question will be on defense with OSU's rough showing on the ground last year (Went 6-0 when allowing fewer than five yards per carry and 1-6 when allowing more). A repeat of that would be disastrous against a run-heavy team like Cincinnati.

New defensive coordinator Bryant Nardo tightens that issue up enough to get the home win in a fun game.

Game 9: UCF - 30-27 Bearcats

A familiar foe. UC takes the lead in the all-time series against UCF 9-8 with a home win here.

Cincinnati capitalizes on a questionable secondary and staves off one of the better pass rushers (Tre’Mon Morris-Brash, the team’s returning sack (six) and TFL (13) leader) to take out their transferred conference rival. If UC can control the potent UCF ground attack, they'll win.

UCF went 5-0 last year when averaging 5.5-plus yards per carry, and they were 7-0—including a win over Cincinnati—when rushing for more than 210 yards.

They went 0-4 in games that didn't hit 160 rushing yards.

Game 10: @ Houston - 30-28 Cougars

Games 10 and 11 were probably the toughest for me to gauge on the entire slate. Houston's home-field advantage just barely edges this one for me, but UC could easily win this game.

Houston has to replace its top RB and WR while fitting in a new quarterback, but I think those pieces gel enough by this point in the season to allow a bend don't break defense enough leeway to get the win. Transfer QB Donovan Smith was great before injuries derailed his 2022 season at Texas Tech and I think he'll be a hit in Houston

Game 11: @ West Virginia - 23-21 Mountaineers

Another game that slightly tilts me towards the home team. West Virginia is consistently getting picked at the bottom of the league but I think they barely get a win here.

It's all about the ground game for Neal Brown's offense (4-21 in his tenure when they don’t get to 100 rushing yards, 5-0 in 2022 when running for 200 yards or more). Sophomore RB C.J. Donaldson is one of the best backs in the Big 12 and I think he helps control the pace here alongside the other two WVU rushers. QB Garrett Greene is just accurate enough to create a few big plays through the air in one of the lower-scoring Big 12 games this season.

Game 12: Kansas - 38-27 Bearcats

Cincinnati gets the win behind a big offensive performance.

I expect Kansas (124th in 2022 points allowed) to be one of the worst defenses nationally again. They have to replace all four defensive line starters with a few different transfers, but I don't see it making enough of a difference for one of the better offenses in the league to come out on top.

QB Jayden Daniels leads an offense with plenty of continuity from last year, but Emory Jones & Co. get the victory.