Bearcats Highest-Ranked Group of Five School in ESPN FPI

ESPN's analytics model doesn't give the Bearcats much of a chance at returning to the College Football Playoff.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Apr 14, 2022 12:31 PM EDT

CINCINNATI — ESPN released its 2022 College Football Power Index on Thursday and Cincinnati boasts a significant advantage over other Group of Five schools. According to the site's definition, "Football Power Index measures team's true strength on net points scale; expected point margin v.s. average opponent on a neutral field."

The Bearcats are ranked 32nd among all 131 FBS programs heading into 2022 (9.1 FPI). UC is the highest-ranked G5 program, just ahead of UCF at No. 33 and BYU at No. 46. Cincinnati holds a 0.8 FPI edge over UCF. That is the same gap between UCF at No. 33 and Iowa at No. 38.

Diving deeper into the numbers, FPI projects Cincinnati to win 9.7 games this season and gives them a 99.7% chance of notching six wins. Head coach Luke Fickell needs just six wins to become the all-time wins leader at the program.

UC has a 39% chance to win the AAC, eclipsing UCF at No. 2 (29.9%). Among all FBS teams, the Bearcats have the seventh-best chance to win a conference title.

In terms of a return to the College Football Playoff, don't hold your breath. FPI gives Cincinnati just a 2.2% chance of going undefeated and a 0.4% chance to make the CFP in consecutive seasons. Winning their first game of the year will boost those odds.

Arkansas awaits Cincinnati in Week One, and FPI sees it as a great matchup. Arkansas is ranked three spots ahead of Cincinnati at No. 29 (9.6 FPI). The two teams kick off their 2022 seasons in Fayetteville, Arkansas on Sept. 3.

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