Game Preview: UC Welcomes an Explosive UCF Attack to Nippert Stadium

The Bearcats are underdogs once again this weekend.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Nov 2, 2023 8:54 AM EDT

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CINCINNATI — Something's gotta give in this weekend's matchup between Cincinnati football and Central Florida. The two sides enter the latest rivalry contest in a bad way amidst fresh conference runs.

They have lost a combined 11 games in a row and whoever holds the L on Saturday will be the last Big 12 team to get a conference win this season.

"We’re going to do everything we can to come out here and win this game this weekend," UC head coach Scott Satterfield said. "We’ve got a great opportunity in our stadium, in Nippert in front of our fans that are unbelievable, to come out, put on a very good product on that field and go out and get a win. These two teams right here are in very similar situations. You think about two programs over the years who have done a great job of winning a lot of football games. We're sitting here in very similar positions here toward the end of the season and are both in their first season in the Big 12. It's been difficult obviously, for both programs."

The all-time series is tied 4-4 since the two sides first met in the AAC back in 2015. UCF is a 3.5-point favorite as of this writing and ESPN's Matchup Predictor has UCF winning 41% of the time.

When UC Has The Ball

Another opportunity for the Bearcats' offense to match up well...

These two offenses enter as top-10 rushing attacks in the nation, with UC's run defense showing to be much better throughout the season than UCF's (although Ollie Gordon II just baptized them for 270-plus yards).

Cincinnati needs to take advantage of play-action and open passing windows with an offense powered by the run. UCF allows 207 rush yards per game (129th nationally) and 0.148 EPA/rush (127th).

Any way you slice it, the Knights are a horrific run defense. UC has to be able to find the end zone multiple times on the ground against a unit hemorrhaging rushing scores (21 rushing TDs allowed, 127th). It's a great chance to let quarterback Brady Lichtenberg ease into his first career start (if they go that route) and not have too much pressure on his arm.

"Their defense can really run and somehow have not won games," Satterfield said. "Same for us with turnovers. It has been a big factor for both teams. It’s very similar. When you look at it, both teams can run the football. I think we're sixth in the country in rushing yards but we're number three in the Big 12 and they're number one. So, there's only a six-yard difference there. They can run the football very well. It really does come down to turnovers for them in some of their games."

The pass defense isn't a whole lot better out of this unit that has a third of its top-12 targeted defenders allowing passer ratings of 106 or higher. This team is in the middle of the pack nationally in big plays allowed, and red zone touchdown percentage. The only real headache they present is a pass rush headlined by Big 12 sack leader Tremon Morris-Brash (six sacks).

That could be a path UCF wrecking this game as Morris-Brash is complemented by Malachi Lawrence (five sacks, fourth in Big 12) on the other side. UC's weakest part of the offensive line is at the tackle spots and they'll have to play well for Cincinnati to pull the upset.

When UCF Has The Ball

This is where the matchup starts to get messy for Cincinnati and its horrific cornerback play this season. UCF's offense is chock full of speedy playmakers with the rushing attack driving things as I mentioned above.

Quarterback John Rhys Plumlee is a familiar foe for UC fans at this point and he's one of six UCF players averaging at least 5.7 yards per carry this season. Six players over 5.5 yards per carry...I had to double-check the astounding number.

“He is as talented as anybody we have played," Satterfield said about Plumlee. "He was one of the fastest players at Ole Miss and he is probably one of the fastest players at UCF. He did go out a couple of weeks ago with an injury, but he had come back wearing a knee brace and was still just as fast. He is very confident in throwing the football as well and he keeps you worried about the run game, but he is a true dual-threat quarterback and one of the best in the country. When he throws the ball, [John Rhys] Plumlee has a lot of confidence and that is what makes him tough as well. UCF has one of the better offenses in the country because of this (33.1 PPG: 33rd nationally).”

RJ Harvey is the workhorse with 712 yards and six scores on 126 carries.

All in all, it's a balanced scoring attack with 17 passing touchdowns to 16 rushing touchdowns this season. Running, passing, either way, UCF can create big plays consistently. That's been a huge problem for UC this season (20 plays of 30-plus yards allowed: 97th nationally).

"It helps to have an idea of how they play but you still have to go out there and execute," Satterfield said about playing them while at Louisville. "We have not done a good job on defense stopping the explosive plays, and they have done a good job of explosive plays on offense. So that’s not a good matchup for us this week, but we have to do all we can to keep them contained and not give up the big plays. I think defensively there are some similarities to what they have done in the past. Overall, we are familiar with them because we have played them in the past.”

Javon Baker and Kobe Hudson could have a field day against Jordan Young and Justin Harris. Those two corners own the 27th and 28th best grades among 29 Big 12 corners to play at least 300 snaps this season.

They should've been benched already, but the backup options have seemingly not shown enough to make that move. Baker (20.2 yards per catch, five scores) and Hudson (21.6 yards per catch, four scores) might prompt that roster move regardless midgame.

All in all, UCF's amassed 26 plays of 30-plus yards this season (ninth nationally). Of those 26, 17 have come through the air (23rd nationally).

Prediction: 33-27 UCF

Give me the better offense and quarterback in this matchup, as UC may very well roll out both Emory Jones and Lichtenberg this weekend.

The pass defense has given me no reason to believe in them at any point this season, especially so against an offense this explosive. UC's passing woes continue as they waste another palatable secondary matchup and stall one too many times in the red zone with a failed fourth-down conversion that makes the difference in a tight contest.

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