Game Preview: UC Looks to Avoid Historic Losing Streak Against Oklahoma State

Cincinnati is moderately-sized underdog this coming weekend.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Oct 26, 2023 10:28 AM EDT

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CINCINNATI — The Bearcats are trying to avoid major history this century with an upset win over Oklahoma State on Saturday night.

Cincinnati would match its longest losing streak since 1998 with a sixth straight defeat. They enter the game as 7.5-point underdogs with a night matchup at Boone Pickens Stadium as the next test. ESPN's Matchup Predictor has UC winning 34% of the time.

Emory Jones and the Bearcats are headed into a hostile OSU environment.

“I would hope that would help him," Head coach Scott Satterfield. "Particularly being in that environment, we think about playing in that stadium. It's a really tight sideline and that stadium, it's right on top of you, maybe the tightest sidelines I've seen. As you're watching the film, there's zero room there and the fans are right on top of you so it can be intimidating, but him having played there hopefully, it won't faze him. He's beaten, he's played in SEC, he's played in some big stadiums, I don't think it'll faze him."

Cincinnati needs Jones to take advantage of a shaky defense and finally play a good game against an FBS opponent this season. The Bearcats are 1-2 all-time against OSU, but haven't faced them since 1983 (27-17 OSU win).

When UC Has The Ball

Can Jones finally play a good game against real competition? It hasn't happened this year and his level of play will largely determine UC's chances.

OSU's defense isn't anything to write home about, ranking 97th in dropback EPA and 76th in EPA/rush allowed. The Cowboys are giving up a bevy of big plays this season, ranking 111th in yards per attempt. Jones needs to take advantage of this very leaky secondary with two safeties (Trey Rucker, and Kendal Daniels) that have allowed a combined 41 catches on 60 targets for 571 passing yards, and seven touchdowns in coverage.

The receivers and Jones must take advantage of a secondary ranked 112th in 20-plus yard pass plays allowed (29 on the season).

"Anytime you can get two backs over 100 yards, it's a good day," Satterfield said about UC's offense against Baylor. "That hopefully opens up the passing game and then we're able to hit Xzavier. [Henderson] I think he had eight catches and two touchdowns; it was a good game for him. Coming off a game where he didn't have any catches. We made an effort to get Xzavier [Henderson] the ball and an effort to get the running backs the ball. It did a good job offensively with that.”

As mentioned above, OSU doesn't do a great job against the run either, allowing 4.28 yards per carry (82nd) and 10 20-plus yard runs (82nd nationally).

UC's offense is set up to thrive in this matchup if they can overcome the road environment.

When Oklahoma State Has The Ball

Slowing down Ollie Gordon II is objective A, B, and C.

Arguably the nation's best running back this season. The 6-foot-1, 210-pound freight train is averaging the most yards per carry of any running back in the country with at least 115 totes (7.03). He just capped off a win this past weekend with 282 yards rushing and four scores.

All in all, he's posted 816 yards rushing with eight TDs, and complemented it with 17 catches for 180 yards. The Cowboys own one of the most efficient running attacks in the country (13th in EPA/rush). Gordon is the OSU offense as the quarterback position lags behind in production.

"A lot of it comes up front, with what their blocking schemes are and our guys getting fitting right, and really being where we're supposed to be. He does a good job if somebody is out of position, he has good vision to be able to cut back and hit the open lane. We must have our guys be where they're supposed to be now. The good news is our guys up front have done a good job in the past with the running game this year, but this will be our biggest test to be able to stop the run this week.

"A lot of the teams we've played so far have not run as consistently as good as Oklahoma State has this season. This will be our biggest test and it will be starting up front and having said that their offensive line is good. They have a lot of seniors up front. Four seniors start up front for them, they've been leaning on those guys and letting the running back pick and choose. So, we have to do a great job with our defensive line, and our linebackers to fill in those gaps.”

Cincinnati's defensive front matches up well in this game as Gordon has miraculously produced this well, despite the offensive line ranking just 56th in Pro Football Focus blocking grade. Gaps will be open for UC to take advantage and try to take down Gordon.

UC sits in great shape if it can keep OSU to the Cincinnati season average of 100.71 rushing yards allowed (19th nationally). Quarterback Alan Bowman (6.6 yards per attempt, 58% completion, 55.3 QBR ranking 82nd) is not playing great football.

Is this finally the game where UC's pass defense doesn't get gashed on big plays? The matchup spells hope there, as OSU has just 18 pass plays of 20-plus yards this season (t-100th nationally).

Prediction: 29-21 Cowboys

Cincinnati keeps the game close for most of the evening, but Ollie Gordon's talent reigns supreme on a night where Emory Jones posts another mediocre performance like he has since Week 1 and the Bearcats fall just short again in a one-possession game.

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