The Historical Trend That Gives Clemson a Shot Against No. 4 Miami

Clemson will host No. 4 Miami on Saturday night, a matchup that may be even tougher than its Week 1 game against No. 11 LSU, which ended in a 51-10 loss.

Bringing down the ACC's top contender will be a major challenge, but history offers the Tigers some hope.

Under head coach Dabo Swinney, Clemson has been a home underdog of three or more points only twice in the past 13 years: against Florida State in 2013 and Notre Dame in 2023. Based on the outcomes, the trend gives Clemson a 50/50 shot at upsetting the Hurricanes.

Disclaimer: Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

That said, let’s break down what went into each contest as well as what the Tigers will need to do against Miami this weekend.

Clemson vs. Florida State

Heading into the Week 8 contest, Clemson was the higher-ranked opponent, sitting at No. 3 nationally, while Florida State sat at No. 5. However, the Seminoles still entered the contest as -3 favorites with quarterback Jameis Winston leading the charge.

The matchup was filled with future NFL talent, including Winston, Devonta Freeman, Kelvin Benjamin, Jalen Ramsey, Telvin Smith, Lamarcus Joyner, Sammy Watkins, Mike Williams, Martavis Bryant, Grady Jarrett and Vic Beasley, among others.

Many thought the matchup would be a very tight contest, as evidenced by the spread, but it didn’t turn out to be that at all. While the Tigers were mostly successful in stopping the run, allowing just 3.2 yards per carry, they couldn’t do the same through the air, with Winston throwing for 444 yards and three touchdowns.

Not to mention, Clemson couldn’t get anything going on offense, with all-time passing yards leader Tajh Boyd completing just 46% of his passes for 156 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. The backfield additionally struggled, totaling just 123 yards on 41 carries for an average of three yards per carry.

The Tigers were simply outmatched in every facet of the game, losing 51-14. In retrospect, though, the Seminoles were just that good, as they outscored their remaining ranked opponents — No. 7 Miami and No. 20 Duke — 86-21 that season.

Florida State finished 2013 undefeated at 14-0, winning the BCS National Championship over No. 2 Auburn, 34-31. Winston also took home the Heisman Trophy after finishing the season with over 4,000 passing yards and 44 total touchdowns.

Clemson vs. Notre Dame

10 years after the Clemson-Florida State matchup came the Tigers’ 2023 game against the Fighting Irish, who were 3.5-point favorites.

Entering the Week 10 contest, the Tigers sat at 4-4, coming off back-to-back losses to Miami and NC State. The two other defeats came in the first four weeks against Duke and No. 4 Florida State.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame entered with a 7-2 record, ranked No. 15 in the country and was fresh off back-to-back wins over No. 10 USC and Pittsburgh. Its pair of losses came at the hands of No. 6 Ohio State and No. 25 Louisville.

For Clemson, the key playmakers on offense were first-year starter Cade Klubnik, Phil Mafah — Will Shipley was out due to injury — and true freshman Tyler Brown. Defensively, they boasted tons of future NFL talent, such as Jeremiah Trotter Jr., Barrett Carter, Nate Wiggins, Andrew Mukuba and Peter Woods, just to name a few.

On the other hand, Notre Dame boasted offensive playmakers such as now-Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Hartman and running back Audric Estime, who finished 12th in rushing yards and third in rushing touchdowns that year.

While their offense was good, it was the defense that drew major attention, as safety Xavier Watts and cornerback Benjamin Morrison — both of whom went on to be top 100 draft picks — headlined that side of the ball. The secondary duo helped the Fighting Irish finish as a Top-7 defense, allowing just 15.9 points per game.

The numbers and rankings stopped mattering once the game began, though, as the Tigers built a 24-9 halftime lead. Notre Dame answered in the third quarter, outscoring Clemson 14-7 to make it a game, but the rally stalled there. The Tigers' defense shut the Fighting Irish out in the fourth quarter, allowing just 35 yards and no points.

While the defense played outstandingly, so did Mafah, who carried the offense, finishing the 31-23 win with 36 carries for 186 yards and two touchdowns.

Clemson vs. Miami

With both sides of the home-underdog spectrum covered, it's time to look at what Miami brings to Death Valley and what the Tigers can do to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the 2026 season so far.

Obviously, Miami is currently undefeated and ranks No. 4 in the country, hence why they are a 17.5-point favorite. Additionally, the Hurricanes are the No. 1 offense and No. 2 defense in College Football, and while they’ve played pretty terrible teams outside of Wake Forest in Week 3, it’s still something you can’t look past.

Offensively, they boast a Heisman contender and arguably the best quarterback in the nation, Darian Mensah, who threw for 361 yards and four touchdowns against Clemson last season. Additionally, they carry one of the best wide receivers in the country, Malachi Toney, as well as Cooper Barkate, who was Mensah’s No. 1 target with the Blue Devils in 2025.

They also have a backfield tandem of Mark Fletcher Jr., who finished with nearly 1,200 rushing yards last season, and true freshman Javian Mallory, who's currently averaging nine yards per carry.

Miami's defense isn't as dominant as its No. 2 ranking suggests, as Wake Forest showed two weeks ago by putting up more than 330 total yards and 20 points against the Hurricanes. Even so, the Tigers can't afford to take Miami lightly, especially in the trenches, where junior edge rusher Marquise Lightfoot, who already has four sacks, headlines the defense.

Clemson, who sits at 3-1 with wins over Georgia Southern, North Carolina and Cal entering the contest, doesn’t even compare to the talent the Hurricanes have, but that doesn’t mean they can’t put up a fight.

Similar to the 2023 team, the Tigers have a first-year starter — except a true freshman this time — in Tait Reynolds, who’s had up-and-down performances over the past two weeks since he assumed the role.

While they don’t boast as experienced a running back as Mafah in 2023, the Tigers do have sophomore Gideon Davidson, who’s shown vast improvements over the past two weeks, totaling 264 yards and three touchdowns in the short span.

Clemson's receiving corps is also much deeper than years past, with stars T.J. Moore and Bryant Wesco Jr. headlining the room. Considering this, and that the Hurricanes' passing defense is marginally worse than their rushing defense, it would be smart for offensive coordinator Chad Morris to attack them vertically, possibly even pulling trick plays out of his bag.

Defensively, the Tigers are nowhere near as strong at linebacker and on the interior defensive line, but they still have one of the best cornerbacks in the country in junior Ashton Hampton, as well as Penn State transfer Elliot Washington, who was most recently named the ACC Defensive Back of the Week, and transfer safeties Corey Myrick and Jerome Carter on the back-end.

But, it still begs the question: What can Clemson do to overcome the skill gap and take home a win?

Well, it all starts at the line of scrimmage, as that was the strong suit for the Tigers in their 2023 upset win over Notre Dame.

While both the offensive and defensive units for Clemson have been underwhelming due to a lack of experience and injuries, the offensive line had its best performance last weekend against Cal, with three of five starters grading out among the top of the offense. Redshirt freshman Gavin Blanchard also replaced Elyjah Thurmon at left guard due to injury and excelled in his first major action; depending on Thurmon’s status, Blanchard might get his first career start this week.

It’ll be a tough challenge for Davidson and co., as the Hurricanes have allowed just 39.5 rushing yards per game (No. 1 in the nation) through the first four weeks, but with both the line and backfield getting better every game, it’s not impossible.

The interior defensive line needs to play with physicality and put as much pressure on Mensah as possible to force him into uncomfortable throws, as he’s only been pressured 19 times this season. Wake Forest, which gave the Hurricanes their hardest challenge yet, totaled seven pressures — the most Miami has given up in a single game so far.

Edge rushers Will Heldt, Jahiem Lawson and London Merritt also need to succeed in setting the edge, as they struggled against LSU in Week 1, allowing over 300 rushing yards. Similar to the interior, they need to be physical when doing it, as Fletcher sits at 6-foot-2, 225 pounds and is one of the most well-known bruiser backs in College Football.

The most comfortable matchup for Clemson on defense is in the secondary, with Hampton likely on Toney and Washington covering Barkate. While neither has faced receivers like the Hurricanes’ duo, Saturday will be a test for just how good this Tigers secondary truly is.

Going back to the offense, they cannot start the game cold as they have all season, or the game will quickly get out of hand, given how volatile and explosive Miami can be at any moment. That’s not saying Reynolds has to play perfectly to begin, as he can only do so much, but Morris needs to draw up some of the best plays he has if he wants to compete.

Most importantly, Clemson needs to control the time of possession, limiting Miami's momentum on both sides of the ball, and win the turnover battle. Those two factors made the difference in the two earlier games: against Notre Dame, the Tigers won time of possession (31:48 to 28:12) and the turnover battle (two to three), while against Florida State, they lost both.

At the end of the day, it's going to be a tall task, but not an impossible one. Some of these keys also may seem obvious, but the simple things are exactly what Clemson has struggled with so far this season.

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