Best and Worst Potential Outcomes for Colorado Buffaloes on Selection Sunday

The Colorado Buffaloes women’s basketball team had a great regular season with a 22-11 record, including an 11-7 mark in the Big 12. However, the real challenge begins tonight on Selection Sunday.

According to CBS Sports analyst Connor Groel’s projection, Colorado is currently an 11 seed.

This means they could potentially play teams like Fairfield, Virginia, or BYU. This also gives them a chance to play teams like Nebraska or Arizona State later on. The task ahead of Buffaloes coach JR Payne and her team is a tough one.

Colorado Buffaloes JR Payne NCAA Tournament Selection Sunday March Madness College Basketball — Mar 6, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach JR Payne reacts to a play against the Baylor Bears during the first half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Nick Tre. Smith-Imagn Images | Nick Tre. Smith-Imagn Images

Every game in the tournament will be a test, and there’s little room for error.

March Madness has a way of rewarding teams that catch fire at the right time. This is what Colorado is hoping to achieve. The challenge is going to be a tough one every night, but they know they need to be ready to tip off.

Selection Sunday, however, is all about finding out what seed they are and then moving forward to the opportunities that lie ahead.

Colorado’s Worst Possible Outcome

The worst-case scenario for the Buffaloes would be staying at the No. 11 seed heading into tonight. That would mean a tough path right from the start, with little room for error in the tournament.

Even with impressive wins over Kansas and No. 20 Baylor in the Big 12, Colorado’s floor could still land them at 11. That seed would pair them against tough opponents right away, making every game feel like a must-win.

Back in late February, the Buffaloes were projected as a “Last Four In” team, which could have meant playing in the First Four just to reach the main bracket. That would have added an extra game and made March an even steeper climb.

Despite that, Colorado’s late-season surge shows just how tight the tournament bubble can be.

This also shows just how quickly things can turn. A lower seed doesn’t have to define its tournament. If the Buffaloes play their best basketball, even the toughest road can become a chance to make a statement in March.

Colorado’s Best Possible Outcome

The best-case scenario for the Buffaloes would be landing around a No. 8 or No. 9 seed, though that path wouldn’t be easy. Losses to UCF and Montana State could still come back to haunt Colorado when it comes to seeding.

Still, the Buffaloes have shown they can compete with some of the toughest teams on their schedule.

Making a deeper run in the Big 12 Tournament would have improved their chances. A strong finish to the regular season, combined with a solid showing in the conference tournament, could make the difference between a mid-level seed and a more favorable draw.

Every game is important down the stretch.

The Buffaloes understand that the key to a better seed in the tournament could lie in their ability to close games. A better seed will allow the Buffaloes to have a better chance at making some noise in the tournament if they are able to carry their recent success into March.