Illinois On NCAA Tournament Upset Alert vs. Colorado

The Colorado Buffaloes are facing a tough challenge as a No. 10 seed, set to take on the No. 7 seed Illinois Fighting Illini on Saturday night. Even with the task ahead, coach JR Payne’s group has a real shot to pull off an upset.

Despite the seeding gap, this matchup is much closer than it looks on paper. Colorado (22–11) and Illinois (21–11) come in with nearly identical records, which points to a far more even battle than the bracket suggests.

There’s also a noticeable edge on the sideline. Shauna Green is still searching for consistent NCAA Tournament success, holding a 2–5 record between her time at Dayton and Illinois, while Payne brings a stronger 4–3 mark in postseason play.

Colorado Buffaloes Illinois Fighting Illini JR Payne Shauna Green March Madness Tournament Big 12 Basketball — Colorado Buffaloes head coach Jr. Payne yells out during the second round game of the Big 12 Tournament inside T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri on Thursday, March 5, 2026. | Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

That experience could matter in a game like this.

If Colorado stays composed and leans into that edge, the opportunity to flip this matchup is very real. In a contest that feels tighter than the seeding implies, the Buffaloes have a legitimate chance to make a statement and keep their season alive.

Can Colorado Turn the Tables on the Fighting Illini?

Even with Illinois coming in as the favorite, that doesn’t mean much once March begins. With how evenly matched these teams are, Payne and the Buffaloes have every reason to believe they can pull off the upset.

It starts with the opening tip.

Colorado needs to start strong, particularly on defense. Containing sophomore forward Berry Wallace will be key. She averages 18.4 points and 6.2 rebounds while shooting efficiently from both the field and beyond the arc.

Wallace is more than capable of taking over a game early.

Containing her from the start will be critical. If the Buffaloes can limit her impact while staying disciplined on both ends, they’ll give themselves a real chance to control the flow.

If the Buffaloes can set the tone early and not have to play from behind, the pressure then falls squarely on Illinois’ shoulders. In such a close game like this one, the Buffaloes could make the statement win they need with a strong performance out of the gate.

The Difference-Maker If the Buffaloes Want the Win

While as good as Desiree Wooten is, the Buffaloes cannot count on her alone to get the job done. In order for the Buffaloes to win, they will need the efforts of the entire team, and that is where Zyanna Walker comes in.

While Walker is a defensive specialist, averaging 2.1 steals per game, she will need to be more consistent on offense. She is the team’s second-leading scorer. Both Wooten and Walker will have to lead the charge if Colorado hopes to win against Illinois.

In six of the last seven games, Walker has been able to score in double digits, and if she is going to do that again on Saturday night, the Buffaloes may just have what it takes to control the game with Walker’s defense and offense.

If Walker can bring that same energy on both ends of the floor, the Buffaloes have a legitimate chance to set the tone early and establish the pace. With her defensive intensity and scoring prowess, the Buffaloes could make believers of everyone with an upset over Illinois.