What the Advanced Analytics Say About Colorado vs. Texas Tech

The reigning Big 12 champs, the Texas Tech Red Raiders, head to Boulder, and the FPI has handed the Colorado Buffaloes this number.

Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders on the sidelines in the second quarter against the Arizona Wildcats at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Colorado Buffaloes enter Oct. 3 facing their most one-sided pregame spread of 2026.

No. 12 Texas Tech is anticipated to steamroll the now 2-2 Buffaloes. And Colorado reportedly plans to hand backup quarterback Isaac Wilson the starting reins over Julian Lewis. That move in itself paints the national picture that this contest inside Folsom Field will become one-sided in favor of the Red Raiders.

The FPI (Football Power Index) paints a similar story too when taking a deeper dive.

What FPI Says About the Colorado vs. Texas Tech Matchup

Sep 26, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Colorado Buffaloes quarterback Julian Lewis (10) passes the ball against the Baylor Bears during the first half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The ESPN FPI index hands the 13.5-point underdog Colorado a low number.

This FPI released on Sept. 30 handed the Buffaloes a -0.6 score, which now hands Colorado the lowest mark among Big 12 Conference teams. Kansas is the only one slightly in front of the Buffaloes, with an FPI of -0.4.

Sep 26, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Colorado Buffaloes quarterback Isaac Wilson (16) is sacked by Baylor Bears linebacker Kedrick Walker (36) during the second half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The power football index doesn't give CU much of a puncher's chance either when it comes to the next two areas: Bowl projection and Big 12 title chances.

Colorado presently owns a 15.4 percent shot at making a bowl game this December. Along with TTU, the rest of the schedule grows tougher for Colorado. No. 13 Utah follows the Red Raiders on Oct. 17. The Buffaloes also still must host No. 20 Houston. Arizona State rises as one more daunting conference game, which takes place down in Tempe. And there's current unbeaten Cincinnati on Nov. 21, too, for the Buffaloes.

These scenarios hand Colorado a low 0.1 percent chance to make it into the Big 12 title game. The Buffaloes' chances to make the College Football Playoffs are presented as a similar number, with a 0.1 mark there too. Overall, Colorado is now predicted to finish with a 4-8 mark at worst, but only going 7-5 the rest of the season at best.

Can Colorado Confidently Turn Around Season?

Colorado head coach Deion Sanders speaks to reporters during Big 12 Conference Football Media Days at The Star. | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

Once again, coach Deion Sanders and the Buffaloes are getting written off. They're now carrying a two-game losing streak back home and have the reigning conference champions in town.

Sanders deciding to hand the quarterback keys over to Wilson now fires off the signal that there's urgency in Boulder. The now fourth-year Buffaloes coach dove into how confident he feels about Wilson behind center ahead of the conference home opener.

"Isaac is going to go out there and try it … you can check him, and he’s going to be ready to go," Sanders said during his appearance on the coach's show released on Sept. 30.

He also added that Wilson looked locked in following some scolding from Sanders after a missed deep throw during the 23-13 loss to Baylor.

Now Colorado must ride its hopes of an upset on this sudden change behind center. Lewis had produced just one 300-yard outing during the early portion of 2026, which came against Football Championship Subdivision foe Weber State. Wilson stepping in isn't oozing much confidence from the rest of the nation, and certainly the FPI rankings for the Buffaloes.

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