Advanced Analytics Predict Upset Chance Of Colorado vs. Arizona State

The Colorado Buffaloes will host the No. 25 Arizona State Sun Devils in the final home game of the season at Folsom Field on Saturday, Nov. 22. Kickoff for this Big 12 matchup is scheduled for 6 p.m. MT and will be broadcast on ESPN2.

Do the analytics say that “Coach Prime’s” team can pull off the upset?

Colorado vs. Arizona State Preview, FPI Prediction

Colorado Buffaloes Arizona State Sun Devils FPI Score Prediction Betting Odds Big 12 Deion Sanders Coach Prime Julian Lewis — Nov 1, 2025; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders on the sidelines in the second quarter against the Arizona Wildcats at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Colorado a 36.8 percent chance to beat Arizona State. The Buffaloes have the 14th highest Big 12 rating at -1.3. The Sun Devils are 9th with a rating of 6.6. Colorado has just one win this season against a power conference team and the FPI thinks the losing will continue against Arizona State.

The Buffaloes are 3-7 on the season with a mark of 1-6 in Big 12 conference play. That one win was a home upset over the Iowa State Cyclones, who were ranked No. 22 at the time. Colorado coach Deion Sanders hopes that Saturday will result in another upset.

Colorado’s last game before their bye week was a close 29-22 road loss to the West Virginia Mountaineers. It was the first start of freshman quarterback Julian Lewis’s career. He showed flashes of why Colorado and the recruiting databases thought so highly go him. Lewis finished going 22/35 passing for 299 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Now, he gets a chance to start at home for the first time in college.

Arizona State is 7-3 overall and 5-2 in Big 12 play. The Sun Devils need to win out if they want to have any hope of making it into the Big 12 championship game to defend their conference title from a season ago. They won the Big 12 in 2024 and earned a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Colorado vs. Arizona State Betting Odds

Colorado is a 7-point home underdog vs. Arizona State according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The Buffs have odds of +220 to win outright while the Sun Devils are at -270.

The over/under is currently at 48.5 points.

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Colorado vs. Arizona State Score Prediction

Colorado being a home underdog of a touchdown should come of no surprise. It’s been a real struggle this season in Boulder. The biggest reason for optimism in this game is that Julian Lewis will be starting.

Off a bye week, the Buffs had even more time to prepare for a good Sun Devils team with Lewis in line to be the starter.

However, it is unfair to just assume that Lewis will be able to put on a superman cape in his second ever collegiate start. The Sun Devils, despite all of their quarterback drama of there own, will go into Folsom Field and cover to improve to 8-3 while dropping Colorado to 3-8.

Arizona State 38, Colorado 17

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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