Analytics Reveal Colorado Buffaloes' Chances Of Winning Big 12 Conference Title

One year removed from the Arizona State Sun Devils shocking everyone by winning the newly expanded Big 12, the same conference appears wide open ahead of the 2025 season.

The Kansas State Wildcats and BYU Cougars have garnered arguably the most buzz this offseason, but the Colorado Buffaloes, TCU Horned Frogs, Baylor Bears and others also hold ample talent in a crowded Big 12. Plus, the Kansas Jayhawks' strong finish to last year makes them a threat to win the 16-team conference.

According to ESPN's latest Football Power Index, Kansas State has the highest chances of winning the Big 12 at 19.9 percent, followed by Arizona State (13 percent) and Kansas (11.3 percent). Surprisingly, Colorado owns the fifth-lowest mark at a mere 2.4 percent. The predictive ratings system also gives coach Deion Sanders' Buffs a 3.1 percent chance of reaching the College Football Playoff and a 0.1 percent chance of reaching the national championship game.

Nov 29, 2024; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders calls out in the second quarter against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Colorado's unfavorable analytics are likely due to losing quarterback Shedeur Sanders, Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter and other key players to the NFL. "Coach Prime" is now overseeing a starting quarterback battle between Liberty Flames transfer Kaidon Salter and incoming freshman Julian "JuJu" Lewis, who are each entering their first season at the Power Four level.

Fortunately for Colorado, ESPN's FPI is 69.5 percent confident in the Buffs reaching their second straight bowl game, although a six or seven-win season would likely be considered a bust by "Coach Prime" and his staff. Still, the FPI gives Colorado a projected record of 6.5-5.5.

While appearing on two-time Super Bowl winner Asante Samuel's "Say What Needs To Be Said" podcast last week, Deion Sanders doubled down on Colorado being a better overall team compared to last year.

"I feel as though we're going to be better because we had individuals that were phenomenal, as well as the receivers — Jimmy (Horn Jr.), LaJohntay (Wester), Will (Sheppard) — we had some dawgs, but now we're going to have a better team," Deion Sanders said. "The line is better, offensively and defensively, the backfield is better."

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Apr 19, 2025; Boulder, CO, USA; Colorado Buffaloes quarterback Kaidon Salter (3) during the spring game at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Questions still remain at running back and linebacker, particularly in terms of depth. Colorado's rushing attack will be led by Micah Welch, Dallan Hayden and Incarnate Word transfer DeKalon Taylor, while UTSA transfer Martavius French and Jacksonville State transfer Reginald Hughes are favored to start at inside linebacker. Staying healthy at those two positions will be critical to Colorado finding success in Deion Sanders' third season.

The Buffs will face each of the top two Big 12 teams in ESPN's FPI rankings during the final two weeks of the regular season. With Big 12 title hopes likely on the line, Colorado will host Arizona State on Nov. 22 before visiting Kansas State on Nov. 29.

The Texas Longhorns are currently the top overall team in the FPI, followed by the Georgia Bulldogs.