Colorado and Iowa State’s Betting Odds Are Surprising and Telling

The Colorado Buffaloes find themselves in familiar territory this week as underdogs at home with a chance to change the narrative. Despite a 2-4 record and an 0-3 start in Big 12 play, the betting line for Saturday’s game against No. 22 Iowa State remains closer than some may have expected.

Sep 27, 2025; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders reacts to a touchdown scored in the first quarter against the Colorado Buffaloes at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

According to DraftKings, the Cyclones are 4.5-point favorites heading into the matchup at Folsom Field. It’s a spread that raised eyebrows, given Iowa State’s strong 5-1 start and Colorado’s recent struggles to hold onto leads.

Do the oddsmakers see something in the Buffs that could point to an upset?

Vegas Still Believes in Colorado

Sep 12, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders prepares to lead the team out of the tunnel before the game against the Houston Cougars at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

For all their inconsistencies this season, coach Deion Sanders' Buffaloes have been competitive all season. They’ve led by a touchdown or more in three of their four losses and have shown they can go toe-to-toe with quality teams — at least for stretches.

Oddsmakers seem to recognize that potential.

Folsom Field has long been a tough place for visiting teams, and the atmosphere surrounding “Coach Prime” has only amplified that effect. Colorado has fed off the energy in Boulder before, and Vegas appears to be baking that edge into the line.

Sep 27, 2025; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes offensive tackle Jordan Seaton (77) pass protects on Brigham Young Cougars defensive end Hunter Clegg (90) in the second quarter at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Another element working in the Buffs’ favor is their offensive line. What was once a glaring weakness has become one of Colorado's most reliable units. Anchored by left tackle Jordan Seaton, CU's O-line has paved the way for a powerful ground attack that's accounted for over 800 yards from the backfield.

Bolstered by the efforts of a deep running back room featuring Dallan Hayden, Micah Welch, DeKalon Taylor, Simeon Price, and even wideout Drelon Miller, who have all shown up big this season, helping Colorado find rhythm and control tempo when they commit to the run. If the Buffs can lean into that identity, they’re capable of keeping things close well into the second half.

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Buffs vs. the Books

Sep 20, 2025; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders before the game against the Wyoming Cowboys at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Buffs have been underdogs in four games this season and have yet to secure a win, though they did cover the spread in their home loss to BYU.

While Colorado has struggled to close games, they’ve consistently started fast.

In week 1 against Georgia Tech, the Buffs jumped out to a 7-0 lead after the first quarter. Against BYU, they led 14-3 after one, and against TCU, they were up 14-0 with just three minutes left in the second quarter. While turnovers, penalties, and mistakes at the most inopportune times have kept the Buffs from closing, one thing is for sure: Colorado can punch first.

Iowa State, meanwhile, is coming off a tough loss to Cincinnati. The Cyclones fell behind early and couldn’t quite dig themselves out of the hole, despite a late push. That stumble seems to have made oddsmakers hesitant to overvalue the No. 22 team in the country, especially against a Buffaloes squad that has shown it can build early leads.

A Prove-It Game for Colorado

Sep 27, 2025; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes quarterback Kaidon Salter (3) looks back at the bench in the first quarter against the Brigham Young Cougars at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

For Colorado, this weekend’s matchup is an opportunity to prove that the flashes of potential fans have seen can translate into final results. Too many games have slipped through their fingers after fast starts this season.

Costly turnovers, penalties, and lapses in execution have turned winnable games into frustrating losses. If they want to keep their bowl hopes alive, that pattern has to end now.

Whether they can finally close one out remains to be seen, but Vegas clearly believes this one won’t be a blowout.

While Iowa State aims to reassert control in the Big 12 race, for Colorado, it’s a chance to flip the narrative, regain control of their season, and show that the early fireworks can finally be matched by a strong finish.

If "Coach Primes" Buff's can play clean football, lean on a steady run game, and find their killer instinct, they have a real shot at pulling off their first upset of the year.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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