Duke's CFP Chances Evaporate After Blowout Loss to Virginia

Saturday's matchup between the Duke Blue Devils and Virginia Cavaliers was the most pivotal game in the Week 12 slate.

It was a de facto elimination game in the race for the ACC Championship game and the College Football Playoff.

Nov 15, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarter back Darian Mensah (10) hands the ball to Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) against the Virginia Cavaliers during the first quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Both teams needed a win to keep their postseason hopes alive with only a few weeks remaining in the regular season.

Virginia would receive the opening kickoff, as Chandler Morris and the Cavaliers' offense would take the field with an opportunity to apply pressure on Duke.

First Quarter

Nov 15, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarter back Chandler Morris (4) looks for an opening against Duke Blue Devils defensive tackle Aaron Hall (99) during the first quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Virginia's opening drive exposed what has hindered the Blue Devils' defense all season, which is the inability to get off the field on third downs. The Cavaliers converted three of four third downs and successfully moved the chains on their lone fourth-down scenario.

Virginia would orchestrate a 14-play, seven-minute drive that was capped off by a five-yard rushing touchdown by J'Mari Taylor. The Cavaliers would lead 7-0 with Darian Mensah and Duke's offense needing a response.

Nov 15, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils cornerback Chandler Rivers (0) attempts to swat the ball from Virginia Cavaliers wide receiver Trell Harris (11) during the third quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

That did not transpire, as the Blue Devils went three-and-out on the ensuing drive. Mensah taking a sack on the first play from scrimmage doomed Duke's chances from the get-go. After just over two minutes of possession, the Blue Devils were forced to punt.

5 Minutes Remaining

Nov 15, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarter back Chandler Morris (4) hands the ball to Virginia Cavaliers running back J'Mari Taylor (3) during the first quarter against the Duke Blue Devils at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Virginia's rushing attack continued to gash Duke's defensive front, but the Blue Devils forced a punt near midfield, which felt like a monumental stop with the Cavaliers looking primed to take a two-possession lead.

The battle at the line of scrimmage was clearly being dominated by Virginia's pass rush, as Mensah looked unsettled and was forced to take the check down repeatedly. For the first time all season, the Blue Devils' offense was held to a three-and-out on the first two drives of a game.

Nov 15, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarter back Darian Mensah (10) drops back for a pass against Virginia Cavaliers defensive lineman Jacob Holmes (23) during the first quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

After ripping a 26-yard rope to Cam Ross, Morris would follow that impressive throw with an overthrow, which cornerback Chandler Rivers intercepted on a diving catch. However, Duke's offense would continue to struggle, failing to pick up a first down for the third consecutive drive.

Second Quarter

With two uninspiring runs to conclude the first quarter, the Cavaliers would open up the second quarter with a conversion on third-and-eight, extending the drive and continuing Virginia's stranglehold on the game.

This game felt like it could slip away from Duke on this drive, as the Cavaliers gained sufficient yards play after play, but there was a potential momentum swing on fourth-and-one on the Blue Devils' 39-yard line. Defensive tackle Josiah Green blew the play up on the snap, stuffing Taylor for a two-yard loss, giving Mensah and Duke's offense its best starting field position in the game.

Nov 15, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers wide receiver Suderian Harrison (1) attempts to catch the ball against Duke Blue Devils cornerback Landan Callahan (21) during the first quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Unlike the first three drives, the Blue Devils picked up at least one first down, but after Mensah missed Que' Sean Brown for a potential touchdown and losing yards on two consecutive plays, Duke was forced to settle for a field goal.

Scoring points in that department has come at a premium for the Blue Devils this season, but Todd Pelino stepped up and delivered a deciphering 48-yard field goal. Duke would finally put points up on the board, trailing 7-3 with a little over five minutes remaining in the first half.

5 Minutes Remaining

Morris connected on passes of 29, 21, and 13 yards, including the aforementioned 21-yard completion to Jahmal Edrine on third-and-14 on the first play after the two-minute warning. The senior quarterback would deliver on another third down, finding tight end Sage Ennis for a 13-yard touchdown.

Virginia's dominant first half was finally vindicated, as the Cavaliers built a 14-3 lead with 1:39 remaining in the second quarter.

Nov 15, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarter back Chandler Morris (4) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Duke Blue Devils at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

The Cavaliers' ability to create pressure with their front four, while dropping two single-high safeties in Cover 2, continued to fluster Mensah. Duke's offense would go three-and-out for the fourth time in five drives.

Morris, who is not known for producing explosive plays in the passing game, did just that, finding Trell Harris down the left sideline for a 56-yard catch and run.

With under 30 seconds remaining, Virginia had first-and-goal from the Blue Devils' eight-yard line, but after a costly offensive pass interference penalty that wiped off a touchdown, the Cavaliers would be forced to settle for a 44-yard field goal. Nonetheless, the Cavaliers would take a 17-3 lead into halftime.

Third Quarter

Nov 15, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers wide receiver Trell Harris (11) catches the ball against Duke Blue Devils saftey DaShawn Stone (8) during the second quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Duke would receive the second half kickoff, hoping to generate any sort of offense in a must-have drive. However, as had been the case up to this point, Duke was forced to punt after just three offensive plays. If Virginia could produce a touchdown on its opening drive of the second half, this game would feel all but over.

It was a rinse-and-repeat process, as the Cavaliers successfully moved the chains on three third-down conversions on a drive that concluded with a 20-yard touchdown reception by Harris. Virginia leads 24-3, a little over the halfway point of the third quarter.

5 Minutes Remaining

Nov 15, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back J'Mari Taylor (3) scores a touchdown against the Duke Blue Devils during the third quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Mensah and the Blue Devils' offense finally showed signs of life with plays of 48 and 32 yards through the air, but in the end, Duke's drive amounted to zero points. Down by three touchdowns, the Blue Devils had no other choice but to go for it on fourth-and-goal. The sophomore quarterback would be strip-sacked, ending Duke's drive and potentially its chances of qualifying for the ACC Championship game.

Those chances were incinerated when Taylor took an option run for a 78-yard touchdown, giving Virginia a commanding 31-3 lead late in the third quarter.

Fourth Quarter

Nov 15, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers linebacker Landon Danley (32) tackles Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) during the first quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

With a 28-point deficit entering the fourth quarter, the rest of the production and scoring output in this game feels meaningless, but there were still 15 minutes left on the clock. Despite operating against softer defensive looks, it was still a struggle offensively for the Blue Devils, who slowly maneuvered down the field. The drive eventually concluded with an 11-yard touchdown reception by Cooper Barkate. It was Duke's first touchdown of the game and Virginia led 31-10.

It was a flawless performance by Morris until he was picked off by Tre Freeman, who returned it for an 18-yard touchdown. Suddenly, the Blue Devils had a sliver of hope with over nine minutes remaining. The Cavaliers still had a 31-17 lead, but a quick defensive stop for Duke, and this game could be turned on its head.

Unfortunately for the Blue Devils, Virginia would manage a field goal, giving itself a three-possession lead by going up 34-17.

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz on the field before the start of the game against the UConn Huskies at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Final 5 Minutes

It was a dress rehearsal with the game out of reach in the final minutes. Duke would fail to convert on fourth down with three minutes remaining, and Virginia would chew out the rest of the clock.

Final: Virginia 34, Duke 17

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