Recent Hot Streak Must Continue for Duke Against UNC

The Duke Blue Devils have been arguably the hottest team in college basketball over the past few weeks. Since heartbreakingly falling 71-68 to No. 17 North Carolina (24-6, 12-5 ACC), the Blue Devils have won seven straight games by an average margin of 23.4 points.

Duke is currently the No. 1 team in the Associated Press Top 25, the No. 1 team at KenPom, and the No. 1 team in the NCAA NET Rankings. As the current top projected overall seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, the Blue Devils control their own destiny in terms of their seeding in March Madness.

Mar 2, 2026; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer looks on during the first half against the NC State Wolfpack at Lenovo Center. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Jon Scheyer's club has already secured the outright ACC regular season title as well as the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament, but now looks for revenge against the Tar Heels after they handed Duke its lone loss in league play.

Duke generated double-digit leads in both halves of the contest in Chapel Hill and didn't let it slip away until the final few minutes. However, North Carolina is now short-handed in a major way, as it was reported that UNC star freshman forward Caleb Wilson will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season due to a hand injury.

Mar 2, 2026; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) guards NC State Wolfpack guard Quadir Copeland (11) during the second half at Lenovo Center. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Although the Tar Heels lost their leader in points, rebounds, steals, and blocks, they won five of the six contests that Wilson already missed.

Feb 28, 2026; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Isaiah Evans (3) reacts after hitting a three-pointer during the second half against the Virginia Cavaliers at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke won 77-51. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images | Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

Duke Will Need To Continue Hot Three-Point Shooting Against UNC

Over the course of the regular season, the Blue Devils have not been a consistent three-point shooting team. Duke currently ranks 87th nationally at KenPom in team three-point shooting percentage at 35.5.

However, Duke has been hot from three over its past few matchups, and it has translated to lopsided victories. Over the team's last three games, it has shot 35-of-85 (41.2%) from beyond the arc, hitting at least 11 in all of those games. It won those three games by an average margin of 33 points.

Feb 21, 2026; Syracuse, New York, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis reacts during the second half against the Syracuse Orange at the JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-Imagn Images | Rich Barnes-Imagn Images

North Carolina Can Be Hot With the Three or Vulnerable

Across the season, North Carolina hasn't been great at the three-point line on the offensive or defensive side. According to KenPom, UNC ranks 161st nationally in team three-point shooting percentage (34.3) and 194th nationally in three-point percentage defense (34.2).

However, similar to Duke, the Tar Heels have utilized the three more than usual as of late. UNC has won four in a row, and over that stretch, it has shot a combined 34-of-85 (40%) from the perimeter, while limiting its opponents to a combined 33-of-99 (33%) clip from three.

Feb 17, 2026; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Luka Bogavac (44) shoots the ball during the second half against the NC State Wolfpack at Lenovo Center. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Duke ranks 16th in the country in three-point percentage defense (29.9), so the three-point line could become a major advantage for the Blue Devils if they can maintain momentum from outside.