How Louisville’s Loss Boosts Duke’s ACC Chances

Despite losing this past weekend, the Duke Blue Devils' positioning in the ACC standings was not altered, as the defeat occurred in a non-conference contest. The Connecticut Huskies are an independent program, meaning they are not represented by a conference.

Although the loss is damaging to Duke's overall record, the most important thing is that the Blue Devils' current in-conference record remains intact.

That cannot be said for a couple of ACC competitors, who slipped up in costly losses, deterring their chances of reaching the ACC Championship game.

Nov 8, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; California Golden Bears quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (3) runs the ball against Louisville Cardinals defensive back D'Angelo Hutchinson (21) during the second half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. California defeated Louisville 29-26. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

One of those teams was the Louisville Cardinals, who suffered an upset loss to the California Golden Bears. Louisville entered the contest as an 18.5-point home favorite against California, which was in the midst of a two-game losing streak. The Cardinals would lose 29-26 in overtime, dropping them in the standings after two in-conference defeats.

Here is how the result of that game affects Duke's chances of qualifying for the ACC Championship game.

What Does This Mean for Duke?

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) warms up before the start of the game against the UConn Huskies at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Without playing an in-conference game in Week 11, the Blue Devils managed to move up one spot into fifth place in the ACC standings with Louisville suffering a loss.

As mentioned, the Cardinals' loss was their second defeat in ACC play, worsening their in-conference record to 4-2. Louisville's overall record (7-2) is better than Duke's (5-4), but that is not as important as the record against ACC opponents.

The Blue Devils are 4-1 in the ACC and have three games remaining in the conference. Duke still has to win out to maintain its advantage on teams such as Louisville, which has two in-conference losses on its resume.

Nov 8, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals quarterback Miller Moss (7) looks to pass against the California Golden Bears during the first half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

Nonetheless, this was a great result for the Blue Devils, who have slowly paved their way up the standings each of the past two weeks with several marquee teams in the conference coughing up opportunities to strengthen their position.

Instead, Louisville and Miami have virtually removed control of their own destiny, as they now need teams, such as Duke, to slip up at some point in the coming weeks.

Nov 8, 2025; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; Clemson Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney communicates with players in the game against the Florida State Seminoles during the second quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard - GREENVILLE NEWS-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images | Ken Ruinard - GREENVILLE NEWS-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

This loss could not come at a worse time for the Cardinals, who will host the Clemson Tigers in Week 12. Clemson is coming off an impressive 24-10 win over Florida State, and are playing with house money, as the season is a lost cause.

Despite playing at home, Louisville opens up as an underdog against Clemson. Another loss, and the Cardinals can forget about the ACC Championship game, which will benefit the Blue Devils.

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