Storylines for Duke's Rivalry Visit to North Carolina

Duke and North Carolina both began the season with high expectations. However, both have underperformed and are still fighting for bowl eligibility deep into November.

A rivalry showdown adds an extra layer of intensity to Duke's search for a bowl bid. The Blue Devils need one more win to qualify for a bowl, while the Tar Heels need to win both of their final two games to get into the postseason.

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz on the field for warm up before the start of the game against the UConn Huskies at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

This is also the first time this series will feature North Carolina coach Bill Belichick, which should add a wrinkle of complexity for Duke coach Manny Diaz. When Belichick was with the New England Patriots, Diaz used to visit their camp often. Now, he has a chance to attack the complex Belichick defense.

That could be the key to this entire game. While Duke's defense has stumbled all season long, North Carolina is actually middle-of-the-pack in the ACC in most defensive categories.

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) throws a pass against the UConn Huskies in the second half at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Darian Mensah could use a boost after two poor outings against UConn and Virginia. The Blue Devils turned the ball over four times in the past two weeks, all coming from Mensah. As a result, Duke dropped another shootout and then had a stinker offensively at home against the Cavaliers.

Without question, this is the best chance Duke has to turn the season around and finish strong heading into bowl season. Here's what to watch on Saturday.

1) Will Duke Throw RB Nate Sheppard A Bone?

Nov 15, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarter back Darian Mensah (10) hands the ball to Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) against the Virginia Cavaliers during the first quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Calling Duke an air raid offense might be a stretch, but offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer understands his strengths. A quarterback with a rocket arm, an offensive line that prefers to drop back and a veteran receiving core with speed all make Duke's play selection understandable.

However, Duke is capable of running the ball. They just choose not to. The Blue Devils rank last in the ACC in rushing attempts (293) while ranking fifth in pass attempts (362).

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) scores against the UConn Huskies in the first quarter at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Nate Sheppard hinted at his displeasure with his role in the offense, which makes sense while the team is losing. The true freshman tailback has been a monster this season with his opportunities. Sheppard won the job early in the season and has taken 112 carries for 700 yards and seven touchdowns and added 24 catches for 157 yards and another score.

Against Virginia, Duke ran the ball twice during its first nine plays, which resulted in a trio of three-and-out punts. On the fourth possession, Sheppard finally got a chance to work, and the Blue Devils scored.

Sep 27, 2025; Syracuse, New York, USA; Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) carries the ball in the second quarter against the Syracuse Orange at the JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

It's not as simple as just giving him the ball, but there does need to be more consistency. The Tar Heels have done a good job against the run, allowing just 114.5 yards per game. However, this is a good opportunity to give Sheppard what he wants.

Sep 6, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels linebacker Andrew Simpson (2) celebtates his sack along with linebacker Tyler Thompson (40) during the second half against the Charlotte 49ers at Jerry Richardson Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

North Carolina has one of the best pass rush groups in the ACC, so running the ball would keep some heat off of Mensah, and Sheppard could carve out chunks on the inside. Andrew Simpson is the guy to worry about on the second level of the UNC defense, but one linebacker shouldn't deter the Blue Devils from being aggressive on the ground.

2) Can Duke's Defense Get On Track?

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; UConn Huskies running back Cam Edwards (0) scores against the Duke Blue Devils in the second half at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Stop me if you've heard this one before. The Blue Devils just can't seem to solve their problems on defense. With good defensive minds on staff in Jonathan Patke and Manny Diaz, there is no reason for the consistent lapses against the run and pass to continue.

Sep 28, 2024; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils linebacker Tre Freeman (12) and cornerback Chandler Rivers (0) run the field and celebrates with fans during the second half of the game against North Carolina Tar Heels at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

Yet, it has. Duke allows 29.6 points per game and 420.3 yards per game, both near the bottom of the conference. The Blue Devils have good players. Chandler Rivers is one of the better corners in the conference. Tre Freeman and Luke Mergott are reliable tacklers. Vincent Anthony Jr. and Wesley Williams can be freaky athletic off the edge. Aaron Hall and Josiah Green are space eaters on the interior.

For one reason or another, it hasn't come together. But this week, it must.

Oct 18, 2024; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils defensive end Wesley Williams (97) celebrates a down during the first half of the game against Florida State at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

North Carolina is the worst offense the Blue Devils have seen in conference play, averaging just 18.7 points per game. Gio Lopez at quarterback is susceptible to pressure and doesn't always see the field well, and the Tar Heels are nonexistent on the ground.

Sep 13, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Gio Lopez (7) looks to pass in the third quarter at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

If there were ever a week to turn things around, this is it. Diaz needs to control the defense this week and put pressure on Lopez, while the secondary works to take away receiver Jordan Shipp. The Tar Heels are decent up front, but Duke has way more talent.

If the Blue Devils can't shut down a mediocre North Carolina offense this week, who can they stop?

3) Is Darian Mensah Out of Gas?

Aug 28, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) throws a touchdown pass against the Elon Phoenix during the second half at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-Imagn Images | James Guillory-Imagn Images

Mensah has been one of the best passers in the country in his first season in Durham. throwing for 3,007 yards, 25 touchdowns and four interceptions. When he's on, the Blue Devils score at will.

After giving the ball away three times against UConn, Mensah threw for a season-low 212 yards and one touchdown against Virginia, while completing just 51% of his passes. He's faced some more pressure in the backfield the past few weeks, and North Carolina can put the heat on as well. The Tar Heels have 28 sacks (second in the ACC) and 10 sacks from defensive end Melkart Abou-Jaoude.

Sep 13, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels defensive lineman Melkart Abou-Jaoude (9 ) celebrates with defensive lineman Smith Vilbert (8) after making a sack in the first quarter at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Pressure is one thing, but Mensah has generally been late and less aggressive downfield over the past two weeks. Duke doesn't need to hit the home run every play, but it does need its sophomore quarterback to step up.

One could hope that with the Blue Devils' chances in the ACC unlikely at best, maybe that takes some of the weight off of Mensah's shoulders, and he can play more relaxed. Duke has asked him to play a ton of hero ball this season, and it's fair to wonder if he's running on fumes.

Aug 28, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) throws the ball against the Elon Phoenix during the first half at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-Imagn Images | James Guillory-Imagn Images

Whether he is or isn't, Mensah is not going to quit on this team. But a rivalry matchup on the road while fighting for bowl eligibility should show just how much resolve Mensah has to finish this season. I expect a big day from the Tulane transfer in Chapel Hill.

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