Three Storylines to Follow For Duke Against Virginia

The Blue Devils need a big response after a narrow loss and weeks of close contests.

Sep 26, 2020; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; The Duke Blue Devils offense lines up against the Virginia Cavaliers defense in the third quarter at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Every game from now to the end of the regular season is paramount for Duke's chances to not only earn a bowl bid but to secure a spot in the ACC Championship game.

Duke is still just 5-4 this season, needing one more win over its final three games to make it to a bowl game. It's weird to talk about this team in potential College Football Playoff scenarios with four losses and not having qualified yet for postseason play, but that's the situation the ACC is in right now.

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) throws a pass against the UConn Huskies in the second half at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

The Blue Devils miraculously have an inside track to the conference title game. Just win, and they will very likely find themselves in Charlotte.

This week, that means knocking off No. 19 Virginia, which is also coming off a heartbreaking loss at home to Wake Forest.

The Cavaliers have some question marks coming into this Saturday's showdown, but they also have to line up against Duke's defense this week, which has been giving away points for almost nothing over the past few weeks.

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz watches from the sideline as they take on the UConn Huskies at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

The Blue Devils and Cavaliers have a lot to prove this week, with much of the country watching to see how the ACC could factor into the national discussion. Here's what to watch for Duke on Saturday.

Who Starts at QB for Virginia and How Does Duke Respond?

Sep 6, 2025; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) prepares to throw the football during the first half of the game against North Carolina State Wolfpack at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

Virginia has questions at quarterback this week after starter Chandler Morris went down against Wake Forest with a concussion. He has been in concussion protocol this week, but Virginia offensive coordinator Des Kitchings said Morris would be limited during Wednesday's practice.

Morris is a big piece for the Cavaliers, mainly because he's been around the college game for a while and seen everything during his previous stops at Oklahoma, TCU and North Texas. He's thrown for 2,088 yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions. He's also run for 214 yards and four scores.

Nov 8, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Daniel Kaelin (10) passes the ball to Virginia Cavaliers tight end Sage Ennis (0) against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons during the second half at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Virginia has scored 33.7 points per game this season, which is a terrible sign for Duke's struggling defense. If Morris can play, Duke will have to contend with that number.

If not, Daniel Kaelin will start. He played fine in relief of Morris, completing 18-of-28 passes for 145 yards. He also ran six times for 49 yards. If he plays, the Cavaliers may run more option plays that give Kaelin the ability to run with the ball in his hands, which the Blue Devils have little tape to prepare for.

Oct 25, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers wide receiver Trell Harris (11) breaks a tackle and scores a touchdown in the second quarer at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Virginia has playmakers on offense to help whichever quarterback plays. J'Mari Taylor is a strong and shifty back nearing 800 yards on the year and is the definition of a workhorse. Trell Harris leads the receiving room with 43 catches for 605 yards and four touchdowns as well.

Will Duke's Defense Rise to the Occasion?

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils cornerback Landan Callahan (21) reacts after a play against the UConn Huskies in the second quarter at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Manny Diaz's defense has been missing in action for about a month now. Since having a strong start against Georgia Tech, the Blue Devils have been incapable of getting a stop.

There have been a few standouts, most notably Chandler Rivers at corner and Wesley Williams on the edge, but Duke has not been able to get the entire unit to work together down the stretch.

Oct 18, 2024; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils defensive end Wesley Williams (97) celebrates a down during the first half of the game against Florida State at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

To put it as simply as possible, the defense has to string together a couple of stops in this game to provide any optimism that the Blue Devils are capable of winning the rest of the way.

Duke has allowed 29.1 points per game this season and 82 points in its previous two games against Clemson and UConn. The secondary was picked apart for big plays down the middle of the field because safeties DaShawn Stone and Caleb Weaver can tend to play closer to the box at times.

The Clemson Tigers celebrate after scoring a touchdown Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025, during the NCAA football game against the Duke Blue Devils at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Blue Devils allow 269.1 passing yards and 137.9 rushing yards per game this season. Neither is a great number, but this could be more favorable for Duke against a run-heavy Virginia offense.

Despite the numbers, Duke did a decent job wrangling in the UConn rushing attack a week ago. A few scrambles by Joe Fagnano and a fake punt boosted the Huskies' numbers. Without those plays, the Blue Devils limited the Huskies to less than four yards per carry.

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; UConn Huskies wide receiver John Neider (80) runs the ball against Duke Blue Devils safety Dashawn Stone (8) in the second half at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

It's a step in the right direction, but the Cavaliers rush for 184.3 yards per game. It won't be an easy task, but I think Diaz and defensive coordinator Jonathan Patke would much rather take their chances trying to stuff the run this week than defend another air raid attack.

Sep 30, 2023; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils linebacker Tre Freeman (12) reacts to his sack during the second half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Tre Freeman has been great inside at linebacker since getting healthy, while Josiah Green and Aaron Hall have been tremendous at knocking linemen back and creating chaos in the backfield. Duke will need a big day from the front seven and secure tackling to win this one.

Will Nate Sheppard Continue to be a Factor?

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) scores against the UConn Huskies in the first quarter at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

A couple of dormant weeks for the running game finally ended last week. Nate Sheppard hit the 100-yard mark on the ground against UConn on 16 carries and scored two touchdowns.

Sheppard has been dying to get the ball a bit more and finally made the most of his opportunity. Duke is always going to prefer to air it out with Mensah before turning around and giving it to the true freshman tailback, but that is more so because of the strengths of the offensive line being in pass protection rather than the ground game.

Oct 4, 2025; Berkeley, California, USA; Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) runs for extra yards against the California Golden Bears during the third quarter at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images | D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

Anderson Castle even got involved with eight carries for 43 yards last week. Part of that was UConn's poor run defense, but it was good to see the Blue Devils do something different offensively and not be as predictable.

Virginia allows 114.6 rushing yards per game, so this won't be an easy week for Duke. Sheppard has a good combination of speed and toughness with the ball in his hands. Defensive ends Mitchell Melton and Daniel Rickert have combined for 13 tackles for loss this season, meaning bouncing runs to the edge won't be easy.

Nov 1, 2025; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) hands the ball off to Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) during the NCAA football game against the Clemson Tigers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Alex Martin-Imagn Images | Alex Martin-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

However, Duke's right tackle Brian Parker II has been solid at reaching around and getting edge rushers to collapse inside. That's a matchup worth watching this week, and whether Duke can run the ball or not should be evident early on.

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