Why Duke Might Turn the ACC CFP Race Upside Down

The Duke Blue Devils have the most important game of their season this weekend against their ACC rival, the Virginia Cavaliers. This game could determine which team makes the ACC title game and can cause more chaos elsewhere.

For Duke, getting to the ACC Championship game was one of their goals this season, and it is still in front of them. They will be back home for this weekend's game, and it's going to be rocking in that stadium on Saturday.

Duke is coming off a loss, so you know they want to get back on the winning side of things. That means they are looking at all the things they did wrong and aiming to improve on them in this game. If they can do that, they will give themselves a great opportunity to win this game.

This is the biggest game of the season for both teams. Someone is going to come out with a massive win, and the other team is going to be mad that they could not get the job done.

dew — Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz on the field before the start of the game against the UConn Huskies at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

The ACC has been a conference that has been unpredictable all season long. That is something that we have not seen in a long time. Since you do not have a dominant thing this season, that means that the ACC could have only one team representing them in the College Football Playoff.

ACC conference tiebreakers

Contenders: No. 12 Georgia Tech (5-1), No. 19 Virginia (5-1), No. 23 Pittsburgh (5-1), SMU (5-1), Duke (4-1), No. 21 Louisville (4-2).

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) throws a pass against the UConn Huskies in the second half at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

"Georgia Tech ends with Boston College and Pittsburgh. Two wins in guarantee the Yellow Jackets head to the ACC championship game for the first time since 2014," said Paul Myerberg of USA Today.

"Even if Tech takes care of business, there’s the high probability of multiple teams tied with two conference losses, which would trigger the use of the SportSource Analytics formula to decide who faces the Jackets."

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) warms up before the start of the game against the UConn Huskies at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Saturday’s matchup between Duke and Virginia could be a tipping point. Should Duke win and Louisville beat SMU next weekend, the Blue Devils could finish second even with a loss to North Carolina or Wake Forest because of a higher common opponent winning percentage than Louisville, Virginia, Miami and SMU.

The Cardinals would finish second with a win against SMU combined with a Virginia win against Duke and a Virginia loss to Virginia Tech. Should Virginia beat Duke and SMU beat Louisville, the Cavaliers would finish ahead of the Mustangs based on common opponent winning percentage.

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