Week 6 FCS Football Preview & Predictions

As I've done over the past few years, I'll preview the biggest games of the weekend and give my official predictions. Let's keep this season going and preview the biggest Week 6 games from across the FCS landscape.

2026 Prediction Record: 74-23
2022-25 Prediction Record: 540-175 (75.5%)

No. 25 Southern Illinois at No. 10 South Dakota

Storylines to Watch: I hate saying that games this early in the season are must-win games, but whichever team loses will be in a really uncomfortable position in the MVFC race. Due to an early loss to West Florida, the Salukis have to win this game because a loss will leave very little room for error if they want to earn an at-large bid.

For the Coyotes, they had a nice rebound win over Indiana State last weekend after losing to Youngstown State in their MVFC opener. South Dakota needs this win for its playoff resume, but a loss will also put them in a tough spot with notable games against North Dakota, South Dakota State, UNI, and Illinois State remaining.

Matchup to Watch: Southern Illinois Run Defense vs. South Dakota's Rushing Attack

A lot of this game comes down to whether the Salukis can force South Dakota's offense into 3rd-and-long situations. The Salukis lead the FCS with 10 INTs, including 2 INTs in each of the past two games. They also rank 2nd in the MVFC with 14 sacks and also have recorded 34 TFLs. If they can keep the Coyotes in those obvious passing situations, it'll allow their front seven to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback, which could force some mistakes from Austyn Modrzewski.

South Dakota's offense also operates at a different level when they are able to play action off the run game, which creates opportunities to take deep shots. On play-action concepts, Modrzewski is averaging 11.3 yards per attempt with 11 passing TDs and an 8.5% big-time throw rate.

The Coyotes are also 4-0 when rushing for 200 or more yards this season. It starts with Charles Pierre Jr., who leads the offense with 447 rushing yards and 6 rushing TDs on 6.0 yards per carry. They can also lean on Carson Fletcher and even bring backup quarterback Jackson Proctor in for special packages. He's been a very dynamic weapon, averaging 11.2 yards per carry on his limited touches.

X-Factor: DJ Williams (Southern Illinois, QB)

The Southern Illinois offense has not been able to reach the same level as last season's unit. They rank 9th in the MVFC in yards per play (5.4) and points per game (26.5). If this offense is going to take a step forward, they are going to need more from DJ Williams at the quarterback spot. He's only completed 54.5% of his passes for 992 passing yards, 4 passing TDs, and 3 INTs.

Not only does he need to be more efficient through the air, but I want to see the Salukis utilize his legs more than we've seen. Since coming back from injury, Williams has been held to under 15 rushing yards in three of the past four games. He still has 6 rushing TDs, which leads the team, but his ability to create explosive plays in the plus-one run game is something that could threaten this South Dakota defense.

Prediction: South Dakota (27-21)

No. 2 Montana at No. 13 Northern Arizona

Storylines to Watch: Both of these teams carry some positive momentum into this major Big Sky matchup. The Grizzlies have started to look like one of the best teams in the country, which started with a dominant win over UC Davis two weeks ago. The Lumberjacks suffered their first FCS loss to Montana State in Week 4, but rebounded with an impressive road win over Idaho State last weekend. This game is crucial for NAU if the Lumberjacks want to keep pace in a competitive Big Sky race.

The health of Northern Arizona quarterback Ty Pennington is something to monitor leading up to Saturday. He was wearing a boot earlier this week, which he downplayed as a precautionary measure, but even if he plays, will he be at 100%? He's a crucial piece of this offense, especially with his presence in the plus-one run game, which was one of the keys to last week's win. Pennington has thrown for 1,299 yards, 9 passing TDs, and 3 INTs this season.

There are also questions about the overall health of Montana's secondary, which saw multiple key contributors go down against Northern Colorado in Week 5. All of them are listed on the two-deep going into this game, but as we have learned, depth charts at the FCS level are very unreliable. Two of the biggest key players will be Braeden Orlandi and Sage Salopek, especially Orlandi due to his ability to make open-field tackles against an NAU passing attack that relies on its WRs to make defenders miss in space.

Matchup to Watch: Northern Arizona's Secondary vs. Montana's Passing Game

The Lumberjacks have not been very good against the pass this season, which is something we highlighted last week. They allowed nearly 400 passing yards to Idaho State, but they continued to force turnovers in key moments, which has been their recipe for success all season. NAU currently ranks 4th nationally with 9 INTs, posting at least one in every game this season.

The question becomes whether the Lumberjacks can force this Montana offense into those uncharacteristic mistakes. Keali'i Ah Yat has been extremely efficient this year, completing 67.6% of his passes for 1,595 passing yards, 14 passing TDs, and 1 INT. He only has 1 turnover-worthy throw in 204 passing attempts, which came in Week 1 against Southern Utah. I don't think the Lumberjacks are going to be able to rely on turnovers to win this game.

Montana wide receiver Brooks Davis has been impossible to guard this season. He's looked like the best wide receiver in the country this season, leading the Griz with 53 receptions for 772 receiving yards and 6 receiving TDs. He can make plays at all three levels of the field, but his ability to take the top off the defense is the biggest threat in Montana's passing attack. On passes 20+ yards downfield, he's averaging 34.9 yards per reception with 5 receiving TDs.

X-Factor: Eli Gillman (Montana, RB) & Jeter Purdy (Northern Arizona, TE)

Montana's passing attack has a chance to steal the headlines, but if the Lumberjacks unload the box, that could lead to another massive game for Eli Gillman. If Gillman is on the field, it creates a problem for defenses because you have to respect Gillman's ability to take over a game, which creates those downfield shots for Ah Yat. Gillman currently leads the Griz with 783 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs.

The Northern Arizona passing attack struggled to start the season, but the Lumberjacks have changed their attack and have found some success in the past 2-3 games. A lot of that is due to Jeter Purdy, who is the No. 1 target for Pennington in this offense. Not many tight ends at this level can stretch the field vertically like Purdy. On deep shots (20+ Yards), he's averaging 37.2 yards per reception with 3 TDs on only five receptions. NAU needs another big performance from Purdy and this offense if they want to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Montana (35-28)

No. 3 Tarleton State at No. 9 Austin Peay

Storylines to Watch: Not only does this game potentially have major postseason implications, but it's also the first Top 10 matchup in UAC history. The winner of this game will have a clear path to a Top 8 seed plus will establish themselves as one of the top national contenders in the FCS.

The Texans enter this game at 5-0, which includes an FBS win over Bowling Green, but this team has seemed to be on cruise control through the other four non-conference games. We've seen this program struggle to get going in big games, which has led to multiple disappointing losses, even dating back to its Division II era. Will Tarleton State come out flat, or will we see a motivated, focused team make a statement?

On the other side, Austin Peay sits at 5-0 against FCS competition, 5-1 overall, with its only loss coming against Vanderbilt. The Govs currently have a 10-game winning streak inside Fortera Stadium, which dates back to the season finale in 2024. They will be looking for their second-ranked win of the season after knocking off West Florida three weeks ago.

Another key storyline will be the health of running back Tylan Hines, who hasn't played since Week 2. He's one of the most dynamic athletes in the country and can turn any play into an explosive play for the Texans. He's averaging nearly 200 rushing yards per game this year, plus had over 200 rushing yards in last year's win against Austin Peay. There hasn't been any official word on his injury, but he's not listed on this week's depth chart for the Texans.

Matchup to Watch: Austin Peay Passing Attack vs. Tarleton State Secondary

The Govs have the most explosive passing attack in the FCS, averaging 16.9 yards per completion this season. Even with limited down-to-down success, Austin Peay's offense has been extremely effective at stretching the field vertically and turning those deep shots into touchdowns.

Chris Parson is putting together another outstanding season after his All-American campaign in 2025. He's completed nearly 70% of his passes for 1,396 yards, 11 TDs, and only 1 INT. He hasn't had to utilize his legs as much as last season, but still leads the team with 4 rushing TDs.

Freshman Denver Harper is a dangerous weapon, averaging a team-high 27.6 YPC and 5 receiving TDs. In fact, all three of Austin Peay's top wide receivers are averaging over 18.7 YPC. Marvin Sims and Jaden Robinson have combined for 750 receiving yards and 5 receiving TDs this season.

This could be an issue for a Tarleton State secondary that's allowing 280.2 passing yards per game. The Texans have the worst passing defense in the UAC, while their 7.15 YPA allowed ranks 5th, so what does this defense need to do against this Austin Peay offense?

It starts with the pass rush, which has been abysmal for the Texans. They rank last in the UAC in sacks, posting 3 in five games, and have yet to have a game with more than one total sack. Tarleton State's front seven just isn't generating enough pressure, which puts the secondary in terrible situations. Luckily, the Govs have allowed the most sacks in the UAC (18) this year. Will the Texans be able to take advantage? It's one of the biggest keys to the game for Tarleton State.

X-Factor: Turnovers & Negative Plays

In a projected high-scoring game, the team that can steal 1-2 possessions gets a significant advantage. Will either of these defenses be able to force a key turnover or get a crucial red zone stop? The Texans may not have forced the most turnovers in the country, but they do rank Top 5 nationally with a +7 turnover margin, while the Govs rank in the middle of the pack at +3.

A lot of Tarleton State's success is due to the offensive efficiency with Kaden Anderson at quarterback. There were some concerns about his ability to protect the football, but that hasn't been an issue over the first five games. He has thrown for 1,346 passing yards and 12 passing TDs with zero turnovers. In fact, the Texans have only turned the ball over once this year, which was a fumble against Bowling Green.

Austin Peay's defense has been one of the best in the country, ranking Top 15 in yards per play allowed. A big part of this success has been generating negative plays and pressure in key moments. The Govs rank Top 10 nationally with 41 TFLs, plus have recorded 2 or more sacks in five of their six games. The Tarleton State offensive line has been really good this season, so whoever wins this battle on the LOS will have a good chance to win this game.

Prediction: Austin Peay (41-38)

Quick-Hit Week 6 Predictions:

No. 4 North Dakota 38, Northern Iowa 21

Northern Iowa is fresh off a bye week and defeated Illinois State two weeks ago at home. Could we have another upset alert this weekend? The Panthers took advantage of Illinois State's inability to push the ball downfield, which hasn't been an issue for Jerry Kaminski and the North Dakota offense. Kaminski ranks 12th nationally in yards per attempt (8.72). I think the Fighting Hawks had their wake-up call in the first half against Murray State, and they come out firing on all cylinders this weekend.

No. 11 Lamar 27, Incarnate Word 24

This is one of the biggest matchups of the weekend, especially since Lamar could be fighting for a Top 8 seed if they continue to win. Incarnate Word is a handful of plays away from being 4-1 with wins over NAU and SFA, but turnovers and missed opportunities have cost the Cardinals in those games. I think UIW has plenty of offense to challenge Lamar, but I trust Lamar's defense to make a few key plays when the game is on the line. Aiden McCown is also playing his best football right now, which has unlocked a new level for this offensive attack.

Western Carolina 31, No. 20 Mercer 21

This is a massive SoCon matchup, especially with both of these teams already having one conference loss. Mercer has won two consecutive games after a tough 2-2 start, while the Catamounts are fresh off an impressive upset win over Tennessee Tech. We honestly never know which Western Carolina team we are getting, and I'm not sure if I completely trust Mercer's offensive production. I'm going to slightly favor the Catamounts to build on last week's performance and get the road win. Keep an eye on Josh Perry, who has really emerged as a dangerous rushing threat for the Catamounts with 405 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs.

Other Notable Week 6 Predictions:

No. 15 Tennessee Tech 28, Furman 10

No. 18 Harvard 23, Cornell 13

No. 22 Jackson State 31, Grambling State 20

Abilene Christian 38, Central Arkansas 17

Yale 24, Dartmouth 17

SEMO 20, Lindenwood 17

ETSU 24, The Citadel 14

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