Week 4 FCS Football Preview & Predictions

As we do every week, we will preview the biggest games of the weekend and give our official predictions.

Let's take a look at the biggest games of the Week 4 slate.

2025 Prediction Record: 35-11
2022-24 Record: 382-122

No. 13 Southern Illinois at SEMO

Kickoff: 6 pm CT (ESPN+)

This weekend will be the 93rd edition of the "War for the Wheel" between Southern Illinois and SEMO. The teams have split the past four meetings, with the road team emerging victorious in each. This is an opportunity for the Salukis to defeat another OVC-Big South team after dismantling UT Martin in Week 3. The Redhawks are looking to bounce back after falling to 1-2 with a blowout loss to North Dakota State.

Southern Illinois will be led by its dynamic signal caller in DJ Williams. He's played well over the first three weeks of the season, throwing for 646 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions. He also leads the Salukis with 165 rushing yards and five touchdowns. The Redhawks will have to find a way to collapse the pocket, but stay disciplined with their rush lanes, or Williams will make them pay when things break down.

SEMO's defense has shown promise at times, but has allowed way too many explosive plays. The Redhawks are allowing 7.2 yards per play and 34.7 points per game. It's going to start with the rushing defense, which has allowed over 200 yards in the past two games. Luckily, outside of Williams, the Salukis haven't really found their rushing attack yet. Chandler Chapman had a solid game last week with 78 yards and one score. The Salukis also need to find a way to get Lashaun Lester going on the ground.

The biggest positive for SEMO has been the emergence of quarterback Jax Leatherwood. He's completed 64.1% of his passes for 642 yards and five touchdowns. He's yet to throw an interception, but faces a Southern Illinois secondary that's forced four interceptions in three games. If Leatherwood protects the football and helps the Redhawks put up some early points, I like SEMO's chances to keep this close.

It's always hard to win on the road, especially in a historic rivalry game, but the Salukis have been firing on all cylinders. I expect another big performance from Williams, which is going to put a ton of pressure on SEMO's offense to score. It'll be enough to win another key non-conference road game over a top OVC-Big South program.

Prediction: Southern Illinois (38-21)

No. 18 Austin Peay at No. 14 Abilene Christian

Kickoff: 7 pm CT (ESPN+)

The UAC has made waves throughout non-conference play, winning multiple key matchups and recording two FBS wins. Austin Peay jumped into the Top 25 after an impressive 34-14 win over Middle Tennessee State. The jury is still out on Abilene Christian, which started the season 1-2, but two of the losses came to FBS programs. The Wildcats still turned heads with a comeback win over Stephen F. Austin in a ranked matchup.

Austin Peay's success has largely been tied to its defensive dominance, in which the Govs have held two of their first three opponents to less than 200 yards of total offense. They rank No. 6 nationally in total defense (250.7) and No. 8 in third-down defense (27%). It starts with getting teams behind the chains early. The Govs have already forced 21 tackles for loss and eight sacks. Defensive back Ellis Ellis Jr. is having an outstanding season, with a team-high 21 tackles.

There were plenty of new pieces added to Abilene Christian's offense this offseason, but they are finally starting to gel. Quarterback Stone Earle has played well, completing 70.7% of his passes for 655 yards and two passing touchdowns. The Wildcats are deep at wide receiver again, with three different players already over the 100-yard mark.

The biggest question will be if the Wildcats can establish the rushing attack. There's a misconception that this offense just wants to throw it around the yard, but it's actually very reliant on a downhill run game. After a slow start, the rushing attack is finding its footing behind Jordon Vaughn and Rovaughn Banks Jr. The Govs have only allowed 3.0 yards per carry this season, making this a matchup to watch on Saturday night.

Austin Peay's offense has been extremely balanced, rushing for over 200 yards per game, while Chris Parsons has found success through the air. In their lone FCS game, ACU held Stephen F. Austin to only 50 rushing yards on 32 carries. The Wildcats have only recorded three sacks this season, but have really done an excellent job controlling the line of scrimmage against the run. All-American Will Shaffer leads the defense with 29 stops, but keep an eye on Rashon Myles Jr., who is having a breakout season at linebacker.

We still have a lot to learn about these two teams. I can see this game being extremely competitive, but Abilene Christian really caught my attention with its ranked win over SFA two weeks ago. I like the Wildcats to find a way to win at home, but I expect Austin Peay's defense to keep this one competitive.

Prediction: Abilene Christian (27-21)

No. 19 Incarnate Word at No. 17 Northern Arizona

Kickoff: 4 pm CT (ESPN+)

This is one of the games you don't want to miss this weekend. Incarnate Word enters this game desperate for a signature non-conference win after a sluggish 1-2 start, including an upset loss against Nicholls in Week 0. On the other side, Northern Arizona has a chance to pick up its third straight FCS victory after one-score wins over Utah Tech and Southern Utah.

The biggest question mark in this game will be Incarnate Word's quarterback situation. The Cardinals have made the switch to UCF transfer EJ Colson, who completed 18-of-25 passes for 226 yards and three touchdowns last week against UTSA. UIW is also expected to have All-American wide receiver Jalen Walthall back from injury, giving the offense another major boost. Chedon James has thrived in his absence, totaling 21 catches for 249 yards and three scores.

The battle between UIW's offense and NAU's defense will be massive in this game. The Lumberjacks have struggled at times, allowing 39.3 points and 399.3 yards per game. More interestingly, UIW has still not found much success on the ground, which has been one of NAU's biggest weaknesses. Linebacker Travis Arena leads the Lumberjacks with 25 tackles, four tackles for loss, and four sacks. Also, Lindenwood transfer Jaylan Wesley will be a player to watch, as he leads NAU with two interceptions.

With Colson getting the start, this may be one of the most exciting quarterback battles to watch in Week 4. Ty Pennington has lived up to the preseason hype, throwing for 799 yards, five touchdowns, and only one interception. Senior Kolbe Katsis has been his No. 1 target, catching 15 passes for 293 yards and three scores. UIW's defense has only recorded one sack this year, giving me some concern about their ability to make Pennington uncomfortable in the pocket.

This game has a lot of the ingredients for a potential upset, especially with a quarterback change, paired with an extremely desperate team with a lot of talent. I'm still going to lean toward Northern Arizona, which has won eight straight games in the Walkup Skydome, dating back to 2023. Ty Pennington's playmaking ability is going to be the difference, but UIW is going to give the Lumberjacks everything they want and more.

Prediction: Northern Arizona (38-35)

No. 11 Villanova at No. 21 Monmouth

Kickoff: Noon CT (FloSports)

The race for the autobid in the CAA is going to be chaotic once again, making this a huge matchup for both teams. We still have a lot of unanswered questions about Villanova with only one FCS game, which was a win over Colgate. Monmouth sits at 2-1 overall with wins over Colgate and Fordham, along with a competitive loss to Charlotte.

When breaking down a Monmouth game, the conversation always has to start with the explosive offense led by quarterback Derek Robertson. Robertson is off to an incredible start, completing 72.5% of his passes for 1,265 yards, 14 touchdowns, and five interceptions. The Hawks already have two wide receivers over 300 yards, including Josh Derry (357), who also leads the team with six touchdowns. More impressively, Robertson has connected with six different players for a touchdown.

There's no secret the recipe for Villanova will be to force turnovers and limit possessions for this Monmouth offense. The Wildcats are expected to have one of the better defensive units in the CAA, but there's still a lot left to prove with limited film against FCS opponents. The Wildcats have an experienced linebacker core, led by Shane Hartzell, who has a team-high 15 tackles. Turner Inge and redshirt freshman Omari Bursey have also played well for the Wildcats. This weekend will be a huge test for Freshman All-American cornerback Zahmir Dawud and Lehigh transfer Jordan Adderley.

On the other side, Monmouth's defense has continued to allow a ton of explosive plays. The Hawks are allowing 508.3 yards and 36.3 points per game, giving Villanova's offense a chance to make this game very interesting. The Wildcats are still working on building chemistry as new quarterback Pat McQuaide finds his rhythm. He's completed 58.1% of his passes for 326 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.

My biggest question is the run game, which has been solid but not special this season. If the Wildcats are going to win, they have to find success on the ground. It allows them to not only keep Monmouth's offense on the sidelines, but takes the pressure off McQuaide to get into a shootout with Robertson. All eyes should be on David Avit and Isaiah Ragland, who have combined for 137 yards and one score. Even with Monmouth's defensive inconsistency, the Hawks are holding opponents to only 3.0 yards per carry.

I'm going to take Monmouth at home here. I think their offensive attack is going to give Villanova problems, while I don't trust the Wildcats to win a shootout with their current collection of offensive weapons, particularly at wide receiver. Give me Monmouth in a one-score game, where the defense makes a key stop late to secure the win.

Prediction: Monmouth (35-28)

Other Week 4 Predictions:

No. 3 Tarleton State 45, Chattanooga 13

No. 5 Montana 35, Indiana State 17

No. 9 UC Davis 38, Southern Utah 31

No. 15 South Dakota 28, Drake 14

No. 22 West Georgia 27, Eastern Kentucky 17

Dartmouth 24, No. 25 New Hampshire 21

ETSU 31, Elon 24

Youngstown State 35, Towson 24

North Carolina Central 38, North Carolina A&T 10

Howard 24, Hampton 17

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