Week 4 FCS Football Preview & Predictions

As I've done over the past few years, I'll preview the biggest games of the weekend and give my official predictions. Let's keep this season going and preview the biggest Week 4 games from across the FCS landscape.

2026 Prediction Record: 52-13
2022-25 Prediction Record: 540-175 (75.5%)

No. 18 Northern Arizona at No. 1 Montana State

Kickoff: 9:30 pm CT (ESPN2)

Storylines to Watch: Montana State had one of the weirdest performances of the season, struggling against Central Connecticut State last weekend. The Bobcats are clearly a better team than what they put on the field last week, but will we see another sloppy performance against the Lumberjacks?

I'm betting that the Bobcats come out and try to make a statement, which is what happened last year. After a sluggish game against Mercyhurst, the Bobcats defeated their next three opponents by an average of 37.3 points per game. I also question whether Northern Arizona has the weapons to challenge the Bobcats.

Northern Arizona has not been very impressive this year despite a 3-1 record. They weren't overly impressive against Utah Tech last weekend, plus were outplayed by Incarnate Word two weeks ago, which gives me some concern about how they match up against this Montana State team. Will we see the Lumberjacks finally figure out their passing attack? There is no room for error against the Bobcats, which means Ty Pennington and this wide receiver room have to be dialed in on Saturday.

Matchup To Watch: Northern Arizona's Secondary vs. Montana State's Passing Attack

The Lumberjacks have struggled against the pass this year, giving up over 300 passing yards in three of their first four games, including over 430 yards against Incarnate Word. They have the 2nd-worst passing defense in the Big Sky, but there is one bright spot. Northern Arizona leads the Big Sky with 6 INTs and 6 forced fumbles, so they've been very opportunistic when the moments present themselves.

The issue is that Justin Lamson has been one of the most effective, efficient quarterbacks in the FCS. Lamson has been solid this season, completing 74.5% of his passes for 923 passing yards, 7 passing TDs, and only 1 INT. He's helped this Montana State offense lead the Big Sky in offensive efficiency.

The Bobcats also feature two extremely dangerous weapons in Taco Dowler and Dane Steel. The duo has combined for 41 receptions for 550 receiving yards and 5 receiving TDs. It's going to be a massive challenge for this Lumberjack secondary to keep both of them contained. Michael Beresford and Jahaad Fort are going to need to have massive games, while Deliyon Freeman is a name to watch at Nickel after posting an INT in each of the past two games.

X-Factors: Adam Jones (Montana State, RB) & Ty Pennington (Northern Arizona, QB)

Jones has been an X-factor since his breakout freshman season two years ago. He can do so many different things for this offense, including being a threat out of the backfield in the passing game. He had his best performance of the year last weekend, rushing for 122 yards and 2 TDs, while adding 92 receiving yards. We haven't seen this rushing attack be as explosive as we've seen over the past few seasons, but that could all change if Jones is able to find some open space this weekend.

Pennington entered the year as one of the top FCS prospects in the upcoming NFL Draft, but hasn't seemed to find his rhythm this season. He's only completing 58% of his passes for 808 yards, 5 TDs and 3 INTs. He's been held under 200 passing yards in all but one game, which was last week against Utah Tech. If the Lumberjacks are going to have a chance to pull off the upset in Bozeman, they are going to need a big performance from Pennington.

Prediction: Montana State (38-14)

No. 8 South Dakota at No. 11 Youngstown State

Kickoff: 1 pm CT (ESPN+)

Storylines to Watch: This is a critical game for Youngstown State's season. The Penguins are already 0-1 in conference play plus still have big games against Southern Illinois, North Dakota, and Illinois State remaining on the schedule.

A loss here could put the Penguins into some must-win situations later in the conference slate. Not many people expected Youngstown State to win last week, but a loss at home to a team with a redshirt freshman QB, no matter how good he is, would not be ideal for a team that entered the year with high expectations.

On the other side, this is another massive test for redshirt freshman quarterback Austyn Modrzewski. He showed some flashes against Boise State, but also made some mistakes down the stretch. He also led the Coyotes to a win on the road against Northern Colorado, but this will be his first road test in the MVFC. If he can deliver against the reigning Walter Payton Award winner, then it will further solidify his place among the best quarterbacks in FCS football.

Matchup To Watch: Youngstown State's Defense vs. South Dakota's Rushing Attack

There is an obvious flaw in this Youngstown State team, which could prevent the Penguins from making a real postseason run. If this defense cannot stop the run, there's no way they are going to be able to survive against most of the elite teams in FCS football. Last week, they were absolutely dominated at the line of scrimmage, giving up 308 rushing yards against the Jackrabbits.

Going into this weekend's game, the Penguins rank 7th in the MVFC in rushing defense, allowing 174.3 yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry. This matchup is going to determine who wins this game. The Coyotes are averaging 6.0 yards per carry this season, which is the 2nd-highest average in the MVFC.

South Dakota has a trio of dangerous playmakers in the backfield, starting with former All-American Charles Pierre Jr. He leads the team with 308 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs. The Penguins struggled with tackling last week, which could be problematic against Pierre, who ranked 5th in the MVFC with 43 forced missed tackles in 2024.

I expect to see a heavy dose of Charles Pierre Jr., but don't overlook Carson Fletcher or Keyondray Jones-Logan. Both of them are proven contributors and can be a threat for a big play when they get the carries. Youngstown State's linebackers and defensive line are going to have to find a way to be disruptive and create some negative plays to put this offense into uncomfortable situations.

X-Factor: Beau Brungard (Youngstown State, QB)

There may not be a bigger X-factor than Beau Brungard. He easily has the highest usage rate of any player in college football, which means he will have the biggest impact on how this offense performs on Saturday. He's been outstanding this year, throwing for 1,057 yards and 12 TDs, while adding 291 rushing yards and another 4 TDs.

Brungard found some success through the air last weekend, but his legs were completely neutralized due to SDSU's dominant front seven. Will the Coyotes be able to control the line of scrimmage in the same way? If Brungard is able to change the game with his legs, it will put a ton of pressure on South Dakota's offense to keep up in a shootout. The goal for the Coyotes will be to take something away from this offense while they control the pace of the game with their rushing attack on the other side of the ball.

Prediction: South Dakota (35-31)

No. 5 Montana at No. 10 UC Davis

Kickoff: 9 pm CT (ESPN+)

Storylines To Watch: It might be Week 4, but we still don't know much about either of these teams. Montana's biggest win came against Southern Utah, which just lost to a Pioneer League team, while UC Davis holds wins over two Pioneer League teams and Portland State. This will be the first true test of the season for both of these teams, both of whom have shown some potential flaws against overmatched opponents.

This game will give us a ton of answers for both teams. Was the slow start against Portland State a sign of things to come for UC Davis? Should there be real concern about Montana's defense? Is there something actually wrong with Montana's passing attack? I think we will get some outstanding data on all of these questions, along with being able to figure out if either of these teams is truly built for a postseason run this season.

Matchup To Watch: Can Montana Create Pressure On Treynor Cleeland?

My biggest concern in this matchup is Montana's defensive line, because the Grizzlies have struggled to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They were able to generate some pressure against Utah Tech and Drake, but posted zero sacks against Southern Utah and Oregon State. Now, the Griz will be without Jake Mason and Solomon Tuliaupupu, who is not with the team right now.

The only proven playmaker on the defensive line is Tyler King, who leads the Griz with 12 total pressures and a team-high 2 sacks this season. King is an outstanding talent, but he's going to need some help from the other guys along this defensive front. Whether it's Justin Eklund, Nui Tovey, or Cooper Buffington, the Griz need more overall production from this unit, especially this weekend.

This will easily be the biggest start of Treynor Cleeland's young career. He's played great since that slow first half against Portland State, completing 60.9% of his passes for 995 passing yards, 9 passing TDs, and 3 INTs. He's coming off his best performance of the season, throwing for 331 yards and 2 TDs against Stetson, but this Montana defense will be a much tougher test.

Cleeland hasn't played well under pressure, which is why this is the biggest key to this game. In his 34 dropbacks under pressure, Cleeland is only completing 44.8% of his passes for 98 yards and 1 INT. If the Grizzlies cannot generate pressure by rushing four, they are going to need to get creative with their blitz packages. Luckily, they have one of the best blitzing linebackers in FCS football in Peyton Wing.

Lastly, Montana's secondary has not been very good this season. The Grizzlies rank 11th in the Big Sky in passing defense, allowing nearly 300 yards per game. They have done a nice job limiting explosive plays, holding teams to 6.9 yards per attempt, but haven't forced many turnovers with only 1 INT. If Montana can make Cleeland uncomfortable, it'll go a long way in helping this secondary against a talented WR corps, headlined by Samuel Gbatu Jr., who leads the Big Sky with 468 receiving yards.

X-Factor: Zach Jones (UC Davis, WR) & Eli Gillman (Montana, RB)

The Aggies have the ultimate X-factor in this game with return specialist Zach Jones, who is one of the most dangerous weapons in FCS football. Last week, Jones had 2 punt returns for 140 yards and 2 TDs. For the season, he's averaging 32.6 yards per punt return and 27 yards per kickoff return. I'd love to see Jones be more involved offensively, but he's a true game-changer on special teams. Keep an eye on how Montana tries to neutralize him in the return game.

On the other side, we always have to highlight Eli Gillman, who has been the most consistent running back in FCS football over the past three years. He's already become the program's all-time leader in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, setting both records earlier this season. He leads the Griz with 409 rushing yards and 7 rushing TDs, averaging 6.1 yards per carry.

The Aggies have been excellent against the run this season, holding three of their four opponents to under 100 rushing yards. Will this success continue against the best running back in FCS football? It'll be a major matchup to watch, because the Aggies were not able to stop the run against elite teams last season. They look improved, but Gillman is going to offer the ultimate test on Saturday night.

Prediction: UC Davis (38-35)

Quick-Hit Week 4 Predictions:

No. 6 Lehigh 28, Penn 24

It looks like it will be Derek Morgan once again at quarterback as Hayden Johnson recovers from an injury. That makes this game very interesting since Penn looked dominant defensively in a win over Bucknell last weekend. The Quakers held Bucknell to 2.4 yards per play and only 124 total yards. We also saw some flashes from freshman quarterback Miles Teodecki, but will that continue against a stout Lehigh defense?

I think the Mountain Hawks are going to lean on Luke Yoder, who might be the Walter Payton Award favorite right now. I'm going to trust Lehigh's defense to get enough stops, while Yoder is able to keep the offense afloat in a low-scoring, competitive game.

No. 12 Tennessee Tech 38, Wofford 10

This could have been one of the biggest games of the weekend if it had been played two weeks ago. Unfortunately, Wofford's 41-7 loss to Chattanooga has completely changed the narrative entering this big SoCon matchup. I'm just not sure how Wofford is going to be able to score against this Tennessee Tech defense. The Terriers are only averaging 4.5 yards per play, which includes an abysmal 3.2 yards per carry.

Tennessee Tech is coming off a bye week and had its most dominant performance of the season against Samford two weeks ago. The only concern is whether the Golden Eagles can find consistent success on the ground, but I think Jax Leatherwood continues to improve and will keep this offense rolling. I don't think this is a good matchup for Wofford. Give me Tennessee Tech to win this one convincingly.

Colgate 21, No. 23 Villanova 17

Colgate has emerged as the biggest dark horse in the Patriot League race, jumping out to a 3-1 start, including two conference wins. On the other side, Villanova has been extremely underwhelming since a Week 0 loss to William & Mary. The Wildcats have struggled to run the ball, while Pat McQuaide has been inconsistent at best over the first four games.

I'm not sure how this Villanova offense is going to move the ball against an elite Colgate defense. The Raiders are holding opponents to 3.9 yards per carry, plus they have one of the best secondaries in the country, allowing 4.86 yards per pass attempt. They've also forced 8 INTs, while allowing only 1 passing TD. I'm going with Colgate in a low-scoring, defensive battle. I expect to see a heavy dose of running back Danny Shaban for the Raiders.

No. 20 West Florida 23, SEMO 20

The Argos suffered their first loss of the season last weekend, while SEMO has emerged as one of the contenders to win the OVC this year. The biggest question going into this game is the health of quarterback Ty'ray Davis, who left last week's game with an injury. He's been a massive part of UWF's offensive attack, leading the Argos in passing and rushing yards. If he's unable to go, UWF's rushing attack will need a big game to pull off the road win.

Even without Davis, I have some concerns about SEMO's offense, which hasn't been very efficient this season. Braylen Ragland has thrown for 902 yards and 2 TDs, but also has 5 INTs, which is an issue against a UWF defense that has thrived on forcing opponents into mistakes. I'm going to lean toward the Argos in a close game, because their defense is built to generate negative plays and win the turnover battle, which will be the key against this SEMO offense.

Other Notable Week 4 Predictions:

No. 13 Austin Peay 38, UT Martin 17

No. 14 Idaho State 31, Southern Utah 28

No. 15 Lamar 24, Nicholls 20

Abilene Christian 27, No. 25 Mercer 20

Furman 17, Richmond 14

Prairie View A&M 34, Grambling State 20

ETSU 45, Western Carolina 42

Elon 23, Maine 21

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