ACC Tournament Preview: FSU Basketball vs. Syracuse Orange

Florida State tips off the ACC Tournament on Tuesday evening, hoping to be this year's NC State to send Leonard Hamilton out with a strong finish. The last time the ACC Tournament was in Charlotte, FSU advanced to the championship game before losing to Zion Williamson and Duke in 2019. How likely is it for that to happen this year?

Their journey starts against Syracuse, a team that the Seminoles beat 90-74 at home in early January. Let's take a look at what has changed between these teams in the last two months.

This game will be around 7 p.m. EST on the ACC Network, live from the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Syracuse Orange Breakdown (13-18 Overall, 7-13 ACC)

HERE is a link to my original preview from January.

The biggest change since then is the loss of star freshman Donnie Freeman, who had surgery on a lower leg injury in February and was ruled out for the season. They already weren't that talented of a team, and losing Freeman made it even harder to keep up in the ACC.

They've yet to beat a team that's currently in the KenPom top 90, and Florida State is 87th. They've also struggled away from home, with an average point differential of -8.2 in those games, only beating Cal and Boston College.

Part of the issue is they have no rim protection. Eddie Lampkin is a decent offensive player, especially as a passer out of the post and as a rebounder, but he is not a great interior presence, with just 15 blocks in 31 games. It also doesn't help that JJ Starling can be wildly inefficient despite him taking 15.6 shot attempts per game. They don't have a ton of shooting, as Chris Bell and Lucas Taylor are their only consistent three-point shooters, and they average a combined 6.7 3PA per game. It is worth noting that those two are shooting much better in ACC play than they did in non-conference.

The only thing that KenPom says Syracuse does well is defensive rebounding. They're 8-6 when they keep their opponent to a 25.5% offensive rebound rate or below. Florida State isn't an amazing offensive rebounding team, but they did come down with 27.3% of their misses in that game (FSU also didn't miss a lot of shots in that game, to begin with).

Syracuse is one of the worst teams in the ACC at forcing turnovers, not fouling, and turning the ball over. All of those fit well into FSU's strengths.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (17-14 Overall, 8-12 ACC)

It was incredible to see Florida State beat SMU on Saturday, giving Leonard Hamilton a win in his last game in the Tucker Center and his 200th official ACC regular season win. That puts him in rare company with Mike Krzyzewski, Dean Smith, and Roy Williams as the only coaches with 200+ ACC wins. To accomplish that in his final home game is a pretty storybook ending. But can they keep it going?

One could argue that Florida State's path is manageable, as they play Syracuse on Tuesday, and a win would give them a rematch against SMU on Wednesday. But you'd have to imagine SMU would have to be motivated to get a win back against the Seminoles. In Saturday's game, SMU had an offensive rebounding rate of 23.5% (third-lowest of the season) and 29.2% from three (one of just seven games this season they shot below 30%). Even despite that loss, they're still top-20 nationally in both three-point percentage and offensive rebounding. It may not be all that likely that FSU could hold them down again.

If FSU gets past them, they will play Clemson on Thursday, who beat the Seminoles in both matchups by a combined 46 points. It's not an easy road, but at least they wouldn't have to play Duke until a hypothetical ACC Championship matchup. Florida State would like to be this year's NC State, who had to win five games in five days last year. Let's see if they can beat Syracuse first.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Daquan Davis
G: Chandler Jackson
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin

Syracuse

G: Jaquan Carlos
G: JJ Starling
G: Lucas Taylor
F: Jyare Davis
F: Eddie Lampkin

Keys to the Game

Smart Shot Selection

Florida State carved Syracuse apart in the first meeting between the two, shooting 7/18 (38.9%) from three and 23/38 (60.5%) on two-pointers. They also got to the free-throw line a TON, shooting 31 free throws in that game. Syracuse isn't a good defensive team. If FSU's offense is patient and clinical enough, they should be able to generate whatever shot they want. Don't settle for good shots, work to get great ones.

Attack Eddie Lampkin

The Seminoles have had a lot of success against Lampkin, both this season with him at Syracuse and last season with him at Colorado. To put it kindly, this is a mismatch nightmare with him trying to defend Malique Ewin. Give Ewin the ball 12-15 feet away from the basket and let him go to work; Lampkin will get played off the floor quickly. And if Syracuse thinks Naheem McLeod will be a better matchup against his former team, good luck.

Keep Syracuse out of the Paint

Syracuse has been a decent offense this season, but if a team shuts off their driving lanes, it's hard for them to find success. FSU's perimeter defense needs to do a good job of containing the dribble, and if they can force 'Cuse into taking contested threes, that'll play right into what the 'Noles want.

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 3.5 points with an over/under of 151.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

Syracuse has been able to hang in games recently, even without winning them, losing by two to SMU, six to UNC, and six to Virginia Tech. But they've won just two games all season away from home this season: Cal and Boston College. I just don't think the Orange match up well with Florida State, so give the Seminoles advancing onto Day Two.

Florida State 81, Syracuse 74

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