FSU Basketball hopes to end two-game skid against Houston Cougars

Florida State is continuing its tough stretch of non-conference play on Saturday evening as it get ready to face the Houston Cougars in a semi-road game. The last two games have gone... poorly, to say the least, for the Seminoles. So can they play any better against their second opponent this year, who played in the 2025 Final Four?

Meanwhile, Houston has been great, but maybe not as strong as they may have expected. So, could they be gettable by a Florida State team that is due to have a strong shooting performance?

This game will be at 8 p.m. EST from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, on the Peacock network.

Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson reacts to a call as Auburn Tigers take on the Houston Cougars at Legacy Arena in Birmingham, Ala. on Sunday, Nov. 16, 2025. Houston Cougars lead Auburn Tigers 39-35 at halftime. | Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Houston Cougars Breakdown (7-1 Overall)

Houston is in year 12 under head coach Kelvin Sampson, who has led them to the last seven NCAA Tournaments, including two trips to the Final Four, including last year. At this point, you know exactly what you're getting out of his team: a tough and physical defense, a group that crashes the offensive glass, a trio of guards that take care of the ball, and a lot of smart players.

The defense is incredibly sound. On ball screens, they're blitzing almost every single one to force the ball-handler from getting downhill, and then they're able to recover back and not allow any easy shots. It's a lot of fun to watch, as their defenders are tagging and recovering as well as you'll ever see in college basketball.

And they will foul the absolute mess out of players. They don't mind sending their opposition to the free-throw line if it's a hard foul because they know that bumping and getting sent to the ground adds up to the toll on a player's body.

Houston will enter this game well-rested. They haven't played since November 26th in the Player's Era Tournament. So they're going to be ready to whoop-up on some people.

Their offense has never been anything to write home about. It's very methodical, as they really work to get the best shot. They were a Final Four team last year because they shot over 38% from three, but they don't have that kind of shooting this year.

This is the exact opposite of what FSU just played against Georgia, as Houston mainly relies on their starting five (82.3% of their points have been scored by their starting five), and they play SLOW. They're only averaging about 63.9 possessions per game, the 356th fastest in college basketball, and faster than they've played in recent years.

Their guard trio leads the way in scoring, starting with Emanuel Sharp, a fifth-year senior who is averaging 16.4 PPG, and he's their most prominent three-point shooter. He's shooting 36.7% from deep on 7.5 attempts per game, but he is a physical player when he goes downhill.

Nov 25, 2025; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Houston Cougars guard Kingston Flemings (4) goes for a layup in a 2025 Players Era Festival group play game against the Tennessee Volunteers during the first half at MGM Grand Garden Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images | Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Freshman Kingston Flemings is shooting exceptionally well from behind the arc, but he's not taking many as of right now. It's his ability to get downhill with his electric athleticism that has scouts drooling. The Athletic has him projected to go 7th overall in their most recent mock draft. He's lightning quick, and that could be a problem for an FSU defense that doesn't have a ton of athleticism. He's averaging 15.3 PPG and 5.0 APG so far.

Their third guard is no slouch either, as Milos Uzan is averaging 12.9 PPG. He was shooting nearly 43% last year on threes, but he's really struggling from deep this year, shooting just 28.3%. Part of it is that he's nearly doubled his attempts per game from behind the arc, and he hasn't adjusted to that uptick.

Another freshman has been key to this team, as Chris Cenac Jr. has been highly effective as their center, averaging 9.0 PPG and 7.8 RPG while showing the ability to space the floor and shoot threes at 6'11". He's another projected first-round pick on this roster, something FSU just doesn't have.

The last starter is Joseph Tuggle, who is averaging 8.1 PPG, 5.5 RPG (2.5 offensively), and a ridiculous 2.5 BPG. He definitely operates more on the interior; he's just four inches shorter than Cenac. His block rate of 13.3% is top-20 nationally among qualifying players.

No one else on the team averages even 4 PPG.

Houston's defense is only allowing teams to shoot 24.8% from three, 45.6% inside the arc, and they force turnovers at a 20.4% rate. They do send teams to the line a LOT, as their free-throw rate allowed of 40.8% is one of the higher marks nationally. They also just don't get to the line much on offense, just 22.5% of the time, which is nearly last across college basketball. That'll be tested against FSU's handsy defense. Very few of their shots are getting blocked, teams can't even shoot free throws well against them, and they crash the glass hard, bringing in 38.5% of offensive rebounds. That's a tough challenge.

Florida State Seminoles guard Robert McCray V (6) makes his way down the court. The Florida State Seminoles hosted the Georgia Bulldogs at the Tucker Civic Center for a men’s basketball game Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025. | Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (5-3 Overall)

The last two games have been shockingly bad, to say the least. Florida State has lost to Texas A&M and Georgia by a combined 70 points, shooting 17/71 from three, 32/73 on twos, and an appalling 17/35 from the free-throw line. They're not winning any games shooting like that, no matter who they're playing, but especially quality opponents like Texas A&M and Georgia. It won't get easier against Houston.

For those complaining about the defensive effort, I understand, but with the way they're playing, their defense starts with making shots on offense because it gives them a chance to set their defense. They haven't been able to do that much in the last few games. Now, yes, they need to be better on defense. The effort hasn't been good enough. Luke Loucks will be the first to tell you. But making shots will go a long way toward helping that. They also crash the glass on offense, so if they're not getting that offensive board, they're often having to play 2-on-1 on defense going back the other way.

And since they shoot so many threes, it's a lot of long rebounds that lead to easy transition chances. It's all glued together.

The team was never supposed to be great this year, in my opinion. I didn't think they'd be the worst team in the ACC like some were expecting, but I saw a .500 team, and nothing has made me change that thinking. This non-conference stretch was always going to be difficult. If they could've won one against the group of Florida, Texas A&M, Georgia, Houston, and Dayton, that would've been fine to me entering the season. And they can still beat Dayton. Houston may be a tough challenge, but who knows how the shots are falling.

This is a proof-of-concept year. Show the system you want to run this year, and start getting better horses in the stable next year. For those wanting them to make up for a disappointing football team, you have to have patience. This was never going to be an overnight rebuild. And I do mean rebuild.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Robert McCray V
G: Kobe MaGee
G: Lajae Jones
F: Chauncey Wiggins
F: Alex Steen

Houston

G: Kingston Flemings
G: Emanuel Sharp
G: Milos Uzan
F: Joseph Tugler
C: Chris Cenac Jr.

3 Keys to the Game

Shots Gotta Fall

To say Florida State hasn't been shooting the ball well recently would be understating it. Outside of the first two games of the season, they're only shooting 28.5% from three and 38.8% from the field. Take out the Florida game, and they're still at 28.9% from three, but they're only shooting 62.1% from the free-throw line.

They have too many talented shooters for that to continue to be the standard. I know Coach Loucks is upset with that, especially with the free-throw shooting. They're due for a big shooting performance eventually, no better time than the present.

But they'll have a big challenge against a Houston team that is only allowing teams to shoot 24.8% from three and 45.6% on twos. Sometimes, it's just as simple as making shots.

Can't Be Scared Inside

Houston has an intimidating frontcourt with Chris Cenac and Joseph Tugler, who are both great rebounders and shot blockers, and they play at the same time. And FSU has already been struggling to finish at the rim; this could be a bad matchup for them.

Alex Steen is going to have to show up in this performance on the glass, Robert McCray V is going to have to be ready for physicality as he drives, and Chauncey Wiggins has to rebound well. If they can get anything positive out of Shah Muhammad and Alier Maluk, that'd be great, too.

Can You Speed Houston Up?

If it were up to Houston, this would be a 60-possession game. Florida State wants to live with it in the 80s. So, is there any way they can they can even get this game into the 70s possession-wise?

It's only happened to Houston once this year, and that was an overtime win over Syracuse. Even Alabama could only get it to be a 76-possession game last year in overtime. But it has to be up-tempo enough for FSU to get out in transition.

Game Prediction

Houston is favored by 18.5 points with an over/under of 145.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

This is a really tough matchup for Florida State. I know Coach Loucks wanted a tough schedule, but this is a different beast. I don't think Houston is as good as they wanted to be, but that physicality is a bad matchup for FSU. Maybe FSU makes shots and proves me wrong, but this could be a long game for them.

Houston 71, Florida State 53

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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