FSU Basketball seeking first ACC win of season as they hit road to face Syracuse

Florida State is off to a bad start in ACC play. After hard-fought losses against North Carolina and Duke, they were absolutely obliterated by NC State at home over the weekend. Any sign of progress went out the window in that game, and they need to get a win. Badly.

To avoid an 0-4 start to conference play, they will have to go on the road to beat Syracuse. FSU has actually won the last three games they've played up there, but that were different teams and a different coaching staff. So either FSU continues its road winning streak against 'Cuse, or they lose a fourth straight ACC game to start the Luke Loucks era.

This game will be at 9 p.m. EST on the ACC Network from the JMA Dome in Syracuse, New York.

Jan 10, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Syracuse Orange forward Kiyan Anthony (7) handles the ball against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the second half at the Petersen Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Syracuse Orange Breakdown (11-5 Overall, 2-1 ACC)

Syracuse is in year three under head coach Adrian "Red" Autry, and he's under a lot of pressure this year. He has yet to make the NCAA Tournament in his time, and when you're at a program like Syracuse, that's not acceptable. He has arguably his most talented team this year, but they're still not performing at the level they need to be, as they lost to Hofstra in non-conference play. If they fail to make the Tournament this year, it's going to be solely on Coach Autry. There is too much money in this roster for them not to be successful.

And this team is..... okay. It didn't help that Donnie Freeman has only played 7 games this year. He missed the losses against Syracuse, Kansas, Iowa State, and Hofstra, but they were able to beat Tennessee. That's something, at least. Even with Freeman, though, who is averaging 19.7 PPG, they still barely beat Monmouth, and they didn't exactly light Pitt or Georgia Tech on fire.

After Freeman, the Orange just have a lot of players averaging between 6.9 and 11.1 PPG: 7 of them, to be exact. It "starts" with JJ Starling, who is back for his final season, and he's not that much better than he was in his freshman year. He's still just not that efficient of a scorer, and he's a below-average playmaker. He's also fallen off a cliff this year with his free throws, shooting just 51.4% from the line.

Former Georgia Tech guard Naithan George has taken over the point guard responsibilities, but he hasn't been quite as strong as he was at GT last year. He has still been good, averaging 10.4 PPG and 5.1 APG, but his shooting has taken a small step back.

True freshman Kiyan Anthony, son of NBA and Syracuse legend Carmelo, has been strong off the bench, averaging 10.1 PPG. He's not that great of a shooter yet, or he hasn't been this season, but he is a talented scorer around the basket. The inability to shoot from three and the free-throw line has been a surprise, as those were supposed to be strengths.

William Kyle III has been a beast down low, averaging 9.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and an ACC-leading 2.9 BPG. He didn't see meaningful playing time for UCLA last year, and he wasn't anywhere near this kind of shot-blocking threat at South Dakota State to start his career, so he'd come out of nowhere for them this year.

Nate Kingz is averaging 9.6 PPG and is a solid rebounder for his size, but he was expected to be a better shooting presence than he's been. He was a 44.6% shooter from deep at Oregon State last year, but he's only shooting 31.2% this year. If you take out his 3/4 performance from deep against Stonehill a few weeks ago, he's made just 4 of his last 16 from three.

Tyler Betsey has taken a small step forward after an underwhelming freshman season at Cincinnati, averaging 7.8 PPG and 3.0 RPG while shooting 36.9% from three.

And true freshman Sadiq White gives them some more versatility in the frontcourt, averaging 6.9 PPG.

Syracuse wins games with their defense, as they hold teams to shoot 30.6% from three, 44.7% on twos, they're one of the best shot-blocking teams in the country, and they force a lot of turnovers.

However, the offense can be really rough at times. They're horrible at shooting free throws, shooting just 62.9% from the line as a team. They also don't really rebound the ball well.

Jan 10, 2026; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles guard Cam Miles (2) loses the ball as North Carolina State Wolfpack guard Terrance Arceneaux (21) looks on during the second half at Donald L. Tucker Center. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (7-9 Overall, 0-3 ACC)

It's hard to describe just how ugly Saturday's loss to NC State was. Florida State ended up losing that game by 44. From what I can tell, it's the biggest loss they've suffered since they lost 103-55 to UNC way back in January of 1998. I wasn't even a year old then, for reference. This is the kind of loss that doesn't happen often for FSU, or really any power conference team. And it was a surprising result given how well the played against UNC and especially Duke.

The defense has let them down a few times this year. Three of the seven games where they've allowed the most points in the KenPom era (since the 1996-97 season) have come this season. It's the first year under Luke Loucks, he didn't come in with a lot of resources, and the roster isn't the greatest, but that's still not a great look. They'd like to turn defense into offense, and when both sides were playing as poorly as they were on Saturday, ugly results are going to happen. Let's just hope it doesn't get any uglier than we saw Saturday.

This is an engine that runs off Robert McCray V, and he wasn't great in the first half, and then fouled out early in the second. It's safe to say that the performance wasn't nearly good enough. FSU also has to be a lot better on the glass, which can be asking for a lot considering their personnel. They just don't have a big team, so anyone with a size advantage can really get after them. Syracuse isn't a great rebounding team, so this is a good chance to contend on the glass.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Robert McCray V
G: Martin Somerville
G: Lajae Jones
F: Chauncey Wiggins
F: Alex Steen

Syracuse

G: Naithan George
G: JJ Starling
G: Nate Kingz
F: Donnie Freeman
F: William Kyle III

3 Keys to the Game

Challenge the Shot-Blockers With Confidence

Syracuse has a dominant interior defense, despite not having any towering presences. They're blocking shots at a wild 17% rate, one of the best marks in the country, and teams are only shooting 44.7% inside the arc against them. William Kyle is their best shot blocker, but you can't ignore Donnie Freeman coming from the weakside, Sadiq White, or Ibrahim Souare.

FSU has had some issues scoring inside, especially if Robert McCray V doesn't have it going. They can't be afraid of these shot blockers, attacking them with confidence.

Force Syracuse to Settle for 3s

Syracuse is a poor three-point shooting team and they don't take a ton of them. Donnie Freeman has shot well in the games he's played this year, but you'd still prefer him to shoot from distance rather than attack the rim. Nate Kingz and Tyler Betsey have been firing away from three, but I wouldn't classify either one as a sniper, per se. Kingz shot the ball well at Oregon State last year, but hasn't this year.

In games in which Syracuse has shot threes on more than 40% of their field goal attempts, they're just 1-4 on the season, and that one win just came in their most recent game against Pitt. Just keep 'Cuse out of the paint, and the 'Noles should give themselves a chance.

Make Your 3s

I might as well just copy and paste that into every preview, because the team's ability to shoot threes directly impacts their ability to win games. Against NC State, they were just 5/23 from deep against the Wolfpack, which is easily their lowest output in both threes made and attempted on the season. It's no accident that they were able to go 14/30 from three against Duke and make that a game, then they come right back and not hit the broadside of a barn against NC State and they get demolished.

Game Prediction

Syracuse is favored by 8.5 points with an over/under of 159.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

I have a strange feeling Florida State is going to win this game. Teams don't shoot that well or even that many threes against Syracuse, and FSU's interior defense isn't the best, but I think FSU's shooting is going to show up for this game. And when that happens, watch out.

Florida State 91, Syracuse 88

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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