FSU Basketball set for final non-conference game of 2025 against familiar opponent

The non-conference game of Luke Loucks' first season as head coach is here, and they're hoping to get themselves back above .500 after a five-game losing streak. They beat the worst team in college basketball on Friday, and now get a game against a familiar opponent.

The Jacksonville Dolphins are up next on the docket for what will be the 67th meeting all time between the programs, and there is some familiarity here. Starting point guard Robert McCray V was at JU the last two years, and assistant coach Michael Fly had been at JU for that time, too.

This game will be at 7 p.m. EST on Monday from the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida, on ACCNX.

Dec 19, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles guard Lajae Jones (10) drives to the net past Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils guard Delkedric Jones (2) during the first half at Donald L. Tucker Center. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Jacksonville Dolphins Breakdown (5-7 Overall)

JU is in its fifth season under head coach Jordan Mincy, who was previously an assistant at Florida under Mike White. He'll probably try to get some information out of his old boss, who is now the head coach at Georgia.

This is another very bad team that FSU is about to go up against. JU isn't as bad as Mississippi Valley State was, but they did just give Charlie Ward his first win against a Division 1 opponent at Florida A&M on Wednesday.

This is also a much different roster construction. MVSU had Michael James, who was a real bucket getter, while JU's highest-leading scorer is only averaging 10.7 PPG. Take out the two games against non-D1 teams, and their leading scorer, Chris Arias, is down to 10.2 PPG.

Arias is very easily their most dangerous three-point shooter, as 75 of his 110 shot attempts this year have been from behind the arc, and he's making them at a 38.7% rate. But he doesn't even start that often.

They only have one other scorer averaging double figures, and that's Jaylen Jones at 10.3 PPG. He's started 11 of the 12 games they've played, but actually has a negative assist-to-turnover ratio.

This is just a balanced team, as they have five other players averaging at least 6.5 PPG. Hayden Wood and Enrico Borio are each taking more threes than twos, Evan Sterck is leading the team in assists, and basically every meaningful rotation player is between 2 and 5 rebounds per game. Chris Lockett, their third-leading scorer, is taking a handful of threes but isn't making them.

Statistically, JU isn't good at anything. They're okay at defensive rebounding, and that's about it. Some of their base stats are propped up by their two wins over non-D1 teams, so KenPom helps paint a clearer picture of that, and it's not pretty.

Nov 3, 2025; Coral Gables, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Dolphins head coach Jordan Mincy watches from the sideline against the Miami Hurricanes during the second half at Watsco Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (6-6 Overall)

Non-conference play hasn't gone the way FSU maybe anticipated, as five straight losses are hard to swallow. They have a chance to close it out on a high note before Christmas, but they need to shoot the ball much better. They shot the ball well in the first half against Mississippi Valley State on Friday, but that shooting went out the window in the second half, and they ended up 13/40 from three.

The shooting will have to improve in ACC play, but they have to be better at generating open shots. FSU actually runs some really quality sets, but they don't always have the athleticism to get around the screens or get downhill efficiently, and that makes shots tougher than they need to be.

I'd expect Robert McCray to want to make a statement in this game. Even if he has no hard feelings toward his old team, there's something about playing a former team that gets someone going. Does he try to set the assist record again? Maybe go for the steals record? I think scoring 25 or so is likely what he'll aim for, but JU will also want to stop their former star from dominating them.

This is going to be a battle of tempos. Florida State wants to play really fast, while JU would prefer to slow things down. Whoever has better luck establishing their rhythm is going to have more success.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Robert McCray V
G: Martin Somerville
G: Kobe MaGee
G: LaJae Jones
F: Alex Steen

Jacksonville

G: Evan Sterck
G: Jaylen Jones
G: Hayden Wood
F: Enrico Borio
F: Donovan Rivers

Keys to the Game

Defend Without Fouling

A lot of these keys are going to sound similar to the last game because a lot of the same things ring true. JU only has three wins against D1 teams this year, so you can't make extra mistakes that'll give them life on offense.

One of those is fouling. JU doesn't get to the free-throw line a ton, only averaging a free-throw rate of 28.7%, one of the worst marks in the country. But if that number climbs to the 40% range, which is where FSU's defense is at right now, things could get a little uncomfortable.

Speed Things Up

JU wants to play slowly. They're only averaging about 66.2 possessions per game, while Florida State is averaging over 75. FSU wants to make JU uncomfortable, and the best way to do that is to speed them up to force turnovers.

Jacksonville hasn't been great at protecting the ball this year, having a turnover rate of 20.6%, and FSU is still one of the best at forcing turnovers. That will probably be the biggest area of focus heading into the game.

Focus, Pedal to the Metal

It's the last game before Christmas break, and they won't play against until December 30th after this game. It'd be human for a lot of people to be thinking about spending time with their families, or even looking ahead to the UNC game next week.

But they have to stay dialed in for this game. The first half on Friday against MVSU was encouraging, but they let off the gas too soon. Make up for it in this game.

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 24.5 points with an over/under of 156.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

I want to see FSU play with a little more passion than they showed in the second half on Friday night against Mississippi Valley State. And with it being the last game before Christmas, I've seen how these can go. But I think Robert McCray V sets the standard early, and FSU rolls.

Florida State 91, Jacksonville 62

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