Game Preview: FSU Basketball at Stanford Cardinal

The Seminoles could use a bounce-back win after their disappointing loss on Wednesday.
Jan 22, 2025; Stanford, California, USA; Stanford Cardinal forward Maxime Raynaud (42) and guard Jaylen Blakes (21) celebrate against the Miami (FL) Hurricanes in the second half at Maples Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images
Jan 22, 2025; Stanford, California, USA; Stanford Cardinal forward Maxime Raynaud (42) and guard Jaylen Blakes (21) celebrate against the Miami (FL) Hurricanes in the second half at Maples Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images / Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

Florida State closes off a two-game West Coast trip on Saturday against the Stanford Cardinal. FSU's first game didn't go as planned, dropping to Cal on Wednesday night. Can they at least leave California with a split?

This will be a tough challenge. Stanford has the best player in the conference (in my opinion) and has vastly outperformed my expectations for them entering the season. And teams generally haven't done well when traveling to either coast in the ACC.

FSU and Stanford will tip off at 7 p.m. EST/4 p.m. PST in the Stanford Maples Pavilion on the ACC Network.

READ MORE: FSU Basketball Suffers Disappointing Road Loss to Cal, 77-68

Stanford Cardinal Breakdown (13-6 Overall, 5-3 ACC)

It's Stanford's first season in the ACC and the first season under new head coach Kyle Smith, who came over from Washington State. He's a great X's and O's coach who is getting the most out of this roster that doesn't have a lot of on-paper talent. Even the team's best player, who might be the best player in the ACC, was a non-factor to start his college career but has blossomed into a dominant force.

Stanford is coming off a dominant 88-51 win over Miami, but Miami also stinks, so it's hard to take too much away from that game. The bigger statement was Stanford going into the Dean Dome and knocking off UNC last weekend, getting a buzzer-beater from former Duke Blue Devil Jaylen Blakes. They had a lot of success using a baseline out-of-bounds play where they'd send a player across the basketball to clear out the defense, then have someone fill in behind for an open mid-range shot. That'll be much more difficult to do against an FSU inbounds defense that never plays man-to-man.

Leading the way is Maxime Raynaud (pronounced "ray-no"), a 7'1" center from France, who is leading the conference in scoring and rebounding, all while shooting 36.4% from deep on over five 3PA per game, averaging 21.2 PPG, 11.6 RPG, and 2.2 StocksPG. He's only had three games this season with fewer than 10 rebounds and has yet to score fewer than 14 points in a game. If you're expecting anyone to slow him down, good luck with that. He'd be my vote for ACC Player of the Year, and it's not even close (yes, I know Cooper Flagg exists). Raynaud is a former teammate of Victor Wembanyama, and they still train together in the offseason.

Jaylen Blakes is their second-leading scorer and the leading playmaker at 14.7 PPG and 5.3 APG. He spent three seasons at Duke and hardly saw any playing time, but has emerged as a key piece to a sneaky Stanford team. If I'm Florida State, though, I'm letting him take as many shots as he wants in an effort to keep the ball out of Raynaud's or any shooter's hands, as long as they're not fouling him. Blakes does have one of the higher free throw rates in the country.

Oziyah Sellers is the only other player averaging double-figures, scoring 13.9 PPG. The USC transfer is the team's best three-point shooter at over 40% on high volume, but he's plenty capable of getting inside and scoring there.

Ryan Agarwal wants to be a shooter, getting 61.4% of his shots from behind the arc, but he's only making 28.1% of them right now. He is coming off a 3/6 performance from deep against Miami, so he may have some confidence again, as he entered that game having made just 4 of his last 27 attempts from deep. He does provide high-quality secondary rebounding, bringing in over five per game.

No one else really scares me as a scorer. Chisom Okpara and Benny Gealer will have their moments (especially Gealer as a shooter), and Donavin Young and Aidann Cammann are decent rebounders, but they wouldn't be my primary focus. Those top four players account for 73.4% of the team's total field goals attempted and 71.4% of the team's three-pointers made.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (13-6 Overall, 4-4 ACC)

Wednesday's loss to Cal was disappointing on many fronts, and it was probably FSU's worst showing of the season. The defensive effort was lacking, the three-point shooting was non-existent, they couldn't get a rebound, silly passes were being thrown, and the two best players dealt with foul trouble. That's a recipe for disaster.

Getting Chandler Jackson back would be big for his defensive abilities and his steadiness on offense in the paint. He missed the last game with an upper leg injury, but it doesn't seem to be too serious of an injury. Justin Thomas just hasn't done much on offense the last few games and is better suited in a minor bench role.

Florida State basically just needs to play the opposite of how they played on Wednesday to win on Saturday. I could see their switching causing issues for Stanford, but I think it's more likely Raynaud just picks them apart. Here's to hoping I'm wrong.

READ MORE: FSU Releases Information Regarding Season Opener Against Alabama

Projected Starters

Stanford

G: Jaylen Blakes
G: Oziyah Sellers
G: Ryan Agarwal
F: Donavin Young
F: Maxime Raynaud

Florida State

G: Daquan Davis
G: Justin Thomas
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin

3 Keys to the Game

Do Whatever it Takes to Keep Maxime Raynaud From Getting the Ball

Maxime Raynaud is the best player in the ACC. I doubt he'll win ACC Player of the Year at the end of the year because the ACC media LOVES to vote for the traditional schools, but he's leading the conference in scoring and rebounding. Cal Poly was able to upset Stanford early in the season in large part because they kept Raynaud off the glass. Pitt followed a similar formula, and that led to similar success. He only has three games with fewer than 10 rebounds, two of those have been losses.

I'd be okay with showing Raynaud two defenders every time down the floor and forcing Jaylen Blakes to be their primary scorer. Blakes may be the team's second-leading scorer on the season, but the team doesn't do as well when the offense isn't running through Raynaud. Florida State's natural scheme of switching everything will keep Raynaud from getting open pick-and-pop threes, but he's going to find a way to score. Make it as hard as possible. And please rebound, Florida State.

Foul Trouble for Malique Ewin and Jamir Watkins

Florida State's offense is pretty simple: give Jamir Watkins and Malique Ewin the ball and profit. But it's hard to give them the ball when they deal with trouble like they did on Wednesday night at Cal. In ACC play, Watkins is averaging 3.3 fouls per game, and Ewin isn't far behind at 2.9. FSU needs these two in the lineup as much as possible, but they're hurting themselves with silly fouls.

Three-Point Shooting

Stanford isn't an amazing three-point shooting team, just around 33.8% on the season, which is about average nationally. They're 8-0 when they shoot above that and 5-6 when they shoot below it. Players like Ryan Agarwal, Oziyah Sellers, and Jaylen Blakes will have to be held in check from deep.

But Florida State's shooting also has to show up. They shot just 3/15 from deep at Cal on Wednesday; that can't happen again in this game if they want to win this game.

Game Prediction

KenPom expects Stanford to win by a score of 76-73.

I don't love this matchup for Florida State. Maxime Raynaud seems like the type of player who will abuse the Seminoles and get whatever shot he wants as a seven-foot stretch big and glass cleaner. FSU needs to show some urgency and effort, something they didn't have against Cal, I just don't know if it will matter.

Stanford 81, Florida State 74


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Austin Veazey
AUSTIN VEAZEY

Lead basketball writer; Former FSU Men's Basketball Manager from 2016-2019