Game Preview: FSU Basketball vs. Winthrop Eagles

Florida State returns home after picking up a win over Tulane in the Orange Bowl Classic on Saturday, looking to establish a new winning streak. They were able to pick up that win despite missing three starters and another key bench piece, though hopefully, they should be back for this game.

Winthrop will be the Seminoles' final non-conference opponent of the regular season. These two have played three times since 2016, all wins for the Seminoles, though Winthrop did make it close in the 2019-20 season.

This game will be at 7 p.m. EST on ACCNX/ESPN+, live from the Donald L Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida.

Winthrop Eagles Breakdown (9-3)

Winthrop is in their fourth season under coach Mark Prosser, who took over for Pat Kelsey, now the head coach at Louisville. They had a good first season under Prosser, going 23-9, but have mostly struggled since then. This year has been their best since that 2021-22 season, even if their win total is propped up by three non-Division I teams. They've yet to beat any team inside the KenPom top 215, though they did keep up with a below-average Virginia Tech team and were pretty competitive with Louisville.

There is really only one thing you need to know about Winthrop: they shoot a TON of free throws. They lead the country in free throw attempts per game at 31.5, are second in free throw rate, and attack the offensive glass at a high rate to get more free throws. While they're only making them at a 66% clip, you can't afford for a worse team to hang around by continually getting to the line.

Those free-throw numbers have been boosted from a few games with 40+ attempts, including an overtime game against Georgia Southern when they shot a ridiculous 49 free throws.

Winthrop's top four scorers are all averaging more than four free throw attempts per game. Their frontcourt of Kelton Talford (15.3 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 6.8 FTA, 1.4 SPG) and K.J. Doucet (14.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 5.8 FTA) lead the way for them, but guard Kasen Harrison (13.9 PPG, 3.2 APG, 2.9 RPG, 4.8 FTA) isn't far behind. Harrison is one of only two main rotation players shooting over 67% from the charity stripe, as he's at 80.4%.

They haven't shot well from three this season until their last two games against Coastal Carolina and Bob Jones University, but Doucet and Nick Johnson are the only two players shooting above 33.3% from deep. I'd expect FSU to try and limit things in the paint first.

Winthrop's defense has played well to make up for their lackluster offense, forcing a turnover rate north of 20% and blocking a fair amount of shots. They don't have a lot of size, something FSU may hope to exploit.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (8-3)

The Seminoles broke their two-game losing streak on Tuesday thanks to Jamir Watkins being too tough to handle for Tulane. He's shot an absurd 40 free throws in his last two games, making 35 of them. He seems to be out of that strange shooting slump he was in to start the season, as he was shooting 64.3% from the line in his first nine games.

Watkins is second in the country in free throws attempted, third in free throws made, first in fouls drawn per 40 minutes, 12th in free-throw rate, and 28th in usage rate. We all expected him to be used heavily when it was announced he was returning to Tallahassee, but the way he's done it has been interesting. Teams are making it difficult for him to finish at the basket, but he's getting to the free-throw line at will.

FSU played without Chandler Jackson, Taylor Bol Bowen, Bostyn Holt, and Alier Maluk on Saturday, but they all looked dressed out and participated in the pre-game shootaround. I'd imagine they're playing in this one.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Chandler Jackson
G: Bostyn Holt
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin

Winthrop

G: Kasen Harrison
G: Paul Jones III
G: Nick Johnson
F: KJ Doucet
F: Kelton Talford

Keys to the Game

DO. NOT. FOUL.

Winthrop is second in all of Division I basketball in free throw rate, and they lead the country in free throw attempts per game at 31.5. That is their main source of offense, with nearly 27% of their points coming from the line. They're one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country, have a lot of their shots blocked, have one of the lowest assist rates, and turn it over at a high rate. FSU's interior defense has to be stellar in this game, and they have to do it without fouling, something they've struggled with this year.

Especially You, Malique Ewin

Ewin has fouled out in two straight games now, something that was a small concern for him at the JUCO level. He's still getting used to the physicality of the high-major basketball, and though Winthrop isn't a high-major team, it's still good practice. As long as he's on the floor, Winthrop doesn't have anyone who can keep up with him. The challenge will be to stay out there.

Will Florida State Continue to Live at the Line?

Jamir Watkins carried FSU to the finish line on Saturday by shooting an absurd 23 free throws. That's raised the team's free throw rate to 11th in the country as of Monday afternoon. I'd like for FSU to show more signs of life on offense and make shots, especially from the perimeter. Getting to the free throw line is great, but you're not always guaranteed to get the benefit of the whistle, especially once they get into ACC play on Saturday. Use this game to find other sources of offense.

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 11.5 points with an over/under of 159.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

Winthrop could be able to take advantage of FSU's fouling issues and make this closer than anticipated. They've played two ACC teams on the road this season already, losing to Virginia Tech by six and Louisville by 15. This game will fall somewhere in the middle, but I'm already anticipating this to not be a pleasing game to watch with all of the fouls and free throws.

Florida State 79, Winthrop 68

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