11-time national champion could be FSU football’s first CFB Playoff opponent

The No. 10 Florida State Seminoles 2-0 have had an explosive start to the 2025 season with a top 10, 37-17 win over Alabama and a school record-tying 77-3 victory over East Texas A&M. As the 'Noles recover during their bye week ahead of Kent State, buzz around the national media has started to hum about where FSU will wind up by season's end.

With the College Football Playoff set firmly in Florida State's sights, On3's Brett McMurphy has them projected to face a familiar foe in the first round come December. Alongside No. 12 USF (sorry, UF) at No. 5 Penn State, No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 6 Georgia, and No. 10 Utah at No. 7 Texas, McMurphy has the Seminoles ranked as the No. 8 team facing off against No. 9 Notre Dame at home.

The road for Florida State to make the playoffs will be no easy task. FSU will host No. 5 Miami in early October and has road games against Virginia, No. 12 Clemson, NC State, and Florida, with a potential sleeper in Virginia Tech.

A Playoff Berth Would Mark Florida State’s Second Of The CFP Era

Dec 7, 2013; Charlotte, NC, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback Jameis Winston (5) pretends to pass the ACC Championship trophy. The Seminoles defeated the Blue Devils 45-7 at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The last time Florida State reached the College Football Playoff was in 2014, the inaugural year of the four-team format following the BCS era. Coming off a national championship behind Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston, the ’Noles fell to Oregon 59-20 in the Rose Bowl and haven’t returned since, a drought extended in part by the controversial 2023 snub.

Now that there are 12 spots open in the new reformatted playoff, Florida State's chances have opened up, and with the team steamrolling ahead, it is likely that they'll find their way in. Although McMurphy has them falling short with a loss to the Fighting Irish.

Miami to the CFP Title Game

Aug 31, 2025; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck (11) rushes the ball against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Interestingly enough, McMurphy has Miami making a run to the national championship game to face projected No. 1 Ohio State, leapfrogging Texas and No. 2 LSU along the way. Bold considering Miami hasn’t won an ACC title since joining the conference in 2004. After a narrow 27-24 win over Notre Dame to open the season, there may be a spark in Coral Gables, but proving they can sustain it over a full schedule is another story.

For now, Florida State controls its own path. With a bye week to regroup and a pivotal stretch of ACC play ahead, the Seminoles have every opportunity to prove McMurphy’s projections right or wrong. If FSU keeps stacking wins, a return to the playoff for the first time in over a decade could be within reach.

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