Three key matchups that will decide FSU football's rivalry game at Florida Gators

This year's contest between FSU and UF will almost entirely be motivated by hatred alone.

Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell walks down the field. The Miami Hurricanes lead the Florida State Seminoles 14-3 at the half on Saturday, Oct. 4, 2025. | Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It comes down to this: The Florida State Seminoles need to beat the rival Florida Gators in Gainesville in order to be eligible for the postseason.

The last two times FSU traveled to the Swamp, the 'Noles were in must-win situations.

In 2023, the Garnet and Gold escaped with a victory without quarterback Jordan Travis to remain undefeated. Similar to this current campaign, in '21 the 5-6 Florida State needed a win over the 5-6 Gators to make a bowl game, but they came up short. This year, UF is already ineligible for a bowl, making this game fueled almost entirely by hatred.

Many fans will be making the trek to Gainesville to see their Seminoles take on the rival Florida Gators. If you’re looking for the pivotal matchups – the game within the game on Saturday afternoon – NoleGameday has you covered.

1. Florida State Offense vs. The Hostile Environment

Nov 1, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback Tommy Castellanos (1) celebrates a touchdown with wide receiver Duce Robinson (0) during the second half against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

The last time the Florida State Seminoles won a true road game came against the Gators in 2023. It's a shocking losing streak that will (eventually) come to an end, but there's been no indication that the streak will snap against UF.

FSU has had some very bipolar road performances this season. The 'Noles put up 38 points and 514 total yards against Virginia, but the defense couldn't stop a nosebleed, giving up 46.

To make matters worse, the Swamp will be the most hostile environment the Seminoles will face all season.

If you've been following our three key matchups throughout this season, you know that "hostile environment" has been a staple in our road game analysis, and with the losing streak still intact, it's still relevant.

However, the Swamp is on another level.

I hate to beat a dead horse, but if the Seminoles cannot communicate, change plays, or remain focused despite 90,000 strong in Gainesville making their feelings known, then FSU won't have much success, they won't end the road losing streak, and they won't make a bowl game.

2. Florida State Front Seven vs. DJ Lagway

Florida quarterback DJ Lagway (2) escapes Tennessee during the first half of an NCAA football game against Tennessee at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, November 22, 2025. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun] | Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Last year, DJ Lagway made some spectacular plays as a true freshman against the Seminoles in Tallahassee. He went 14-22 with two touchdowns and an interception for 133 yards. The stats don't jump off the page, but Seminole fans remember him as the torture in between five turnovers.

However, Lagway has not had the best season so far for the Gators. 13 touchdowns and 13 interceptions and a 3-8 record have not boded well for the young QB, but a win against Florida State could sweeten the offseason just a bit more.

Lagway possesses an impressive frame with strength and athletic ability to extend plays, which makes defensive coordinators lose sleep at night.

His ceiling is incredibly high. We saw it against Texas as he went 21-28 for 298 yards and two touchdowns, but he's also shown at times to struggle against solid defenses, such as LSU.

Will FSU get Lagway's ceiling, floor, or in between?

If the Seminoles' front seven can't contain Lagway, then the FSU effort to get a win in the Swamp won't be easy.

3. Florida State Run Game vs. The Florida Run Defense

Nov 21, 2025; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback Tommy Castellanos (1) runs with the ball during the second half of the game against NC State Wolfpack at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

The Seminoles possess the 11th-best rushing offense in the country, while the Gators' run defense sits at the middle of the pack at 77th.

If the 'Noles want to quiet the crowd and establish any form of offense with the hostile environment in mind, the run game could be where FSU makes a dent in the UF defense.

Florida State really went after NC State's secondary last week, but only managed to put up 11 points.

Perhaps a change in strategy could bode well for the Seminoles on Saturday.

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