What An FSU Football Upset Over SMU Would Mean For The Season

College football is a wild sport, but what would an upset in their ACC opener on Labor Day mean for the Seminoles’ season?

With LSU’s 51-10 dismantling of Clemson Saturday, and Miami’s dominant performance over Stanford, the race for the top of the ACC continues.

Although the Florida State Seminoles were not preseason conference contenders, the outcome of their matchup against the SMU Mustangs will have significant implications regarding where both teams stand.

Florida State was picked to finish 11th in the ACC preseason media poll, while SMU was projected to finish second, and the betting line is extremely close for Monday night's matchup, with DraftKings expecting a three-point swing in favor of the Mustangs.

A Step in the Right Direction

Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell watches the replay. The Florida State Seminoles defeated the New Mexico State Aggies 34-17 at Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday, Aug. 29, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

A victory at home over SMU would mark a step in the right direction for a program coming off of back-to-back losing seasons.

Optimism has been hard to come by in Tallahassee, and beating one of the ACC’s projected contenders would give Seminole fans a much-needed break from the negativity surrounding the program.

Beating SMU would show that Florida State can compete with a team expected to challenge for ACC supremacy.

A win could also set up a meeting between two undefeated programs when the Seminoles travel to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama on Sept. 19.

Florida State has already had a chance to establish itself in its Week 0 victory over New Mexico State, and a win over the Mustangs would show FSU's ability to correct the mistakes shown against the Aggies and give the team something tangible to build on as they enter their first bye week.

An Early Foothold in the ACC Race

Florida State Seminoles running back Samuel Singleton Jr. (3) is tackled from behind. The Florida State Seminoles defeated the New Mexico State Aggies 34-17 at Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday, Aug. 29, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Taking down SMU could give Florida State an early opportunity to challenge its own preseason expectations.

FSU fans have already seen a hot start falter, given last year's season, and one victory won't place the Seminoles in ACC contention, but it would change the picture and make early struggles easier to dismiss.

It would also hand SMU an immediate conference loss while giving Florida State a valuable win to build its run in the ACC.

Some Breathing Room for Mike Norvell

Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell watches his team as they try to score. The Florida State Seminoles defeated the New Mexico State Aggies 34-17 at Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday, Aug. 29, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

After two consecutive losing seasons, every game carries weight, and an upset would show proof that his recent overhaul has Florida State moving towards the standards Florida State fans have come to expect.

A loss would bring the same offseason questions surrounding his tenure in Garnet and Gold to the surface. A win would allow Florida State to head into its bye week with renewed belief, an early conference victory, and an opportunity to make even more noise at Alabama.

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