Mike Norvell to Be Fired? Kalshi Prediction Market Trending Up

The Florida State Seminoles are ready to chop Mike Norvell out of Tallahassee, and Kalshi’s college football market leans toward an exit. Following Week 0, Mike Norvell has a 60% price of being out as FSU’s head coach by February.

Norvell’s price of being out at Florida State saw a 5% jump following the Seminoles 34-17 win over New Mexico State. Kalshi settles the market on whether Mike Norvell is still with the team by February 1, 2027. A $10 trade on Norvell being out profits $6.20.

Will Mike Norvell be fired/resign before February? - Kalshi

Yes 60%
No 43%

Ready for a change

It’s safe to say that the Tallahassee fanbase has wanted to cut ties with Norvell since he finished 2-10 in 2024. Since the 2024 season, the Seminoles are a combined 7-16 overall and 3-13 in ACC play.

His massive contract prevents an immediate firing. Florida State extended Norvell’s contract for eight years and $84 million following the Noles 2023 ACC Championship run. With his current contract in place, a buyout right now would cost roughly $51 million. That cost drops to $42.5 million at the end of the 2026 season.

A rough 2026 incoming?

Calls for Norvell's firing echoed louder than ever early in 2026 following FSU’s win over New Mexico State. The Seminoles went into Week 0 as a 31.5-point favorite and walked away with a 34-17 win, though some would argue that they lost on the line of scrimmage.

Transfer QB Ashton Daniels saw 12 pressures and one sack, forcing him to a less-than-efficient 17/27 performance for 202 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. New Mexico State torched Florida State’s secondary for 272 pass yards and two touchdowns.

Looking ahead, Florida State has a top-20 hardest schedule in the country and the toughest schedule in the ACC. It has four top-25 games against SMU, Alabama, Louisville, and Miami. Three of them are on the road. The Seminoles will also play three Friday night games where they’ve struggled in recent seasons, losing their last three.

Florida State’s next outing is against No. 19 SMU at home on Labor Day.

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