NoleGameday Staff Score Predictions: Florida State Seminoles at North Carolina State Wolfpack

Florida State (4-1, 2-1 ACC) hits the road for a battle with No. 14 North Carolina State (4-1, 0-1 ACC) following the team's first loss in 2022. The Seminoles and Wolfpack will both be looking to respond under the lights in Carter-Finley Stadium. FSU has won just two of its last six contests in a building where NC State has provided the 'Noles with plenty of frustration.

The Wolfpack return 10 of 11 starters on a defense that has given up more than 20 points just once this season. NC State is allowing 3.42 yards per carry and 94.4 rushing yards through five games, which ranks No. 15 in the country. Florida State will need to do what many haven't; run the ball with success and win on third down. The Seminoles have converted 48.4% of their third downs this season but NC State's defense is stalwart, only allowing a 28.6% success rate.

North Carolina State has struggled on offense with a lack of playmakers around quarterback Devin Leary outside of wide receiver Thayer Thomas. Florida State's defense will need to hold the Pack in check as much as possible while the offense tries to figure out the opposing side's 3-3-5. NCSU will be without starting cornerback Derek Pitts for the first half and starting safety Cyrus Fagan is questionable.

Our staff provides their analysis and predictions as the Seminoles take on the Wolfpack.

Dustin Lewis (@Dussttin)

Florida State's offense had its worst performance of the season last week and the defense was too exhausted by the fourth quarter to come up with a stop. It was disappointing but it also showed how much the Seminoles have been harmed by injuries on both sides of the ball. Players such as defensive tackle Fabien Lovett, offensive tackle Robert Scott, and linebacker Amari Gainer were unable to play a snap against Wake Forest, that doesn't even go into the number of 'Noles who are out for the year.

It will be up to the Seminoles defense to limit North Carolina State while FSU's offense tries to find a rhythm against the Pack. Quarterback Devin Leary has played up and down this season after losing three of his top playmakers from a season ago. Wide receiver Thomas Thayer (24 catches, 301 yards, 2 TDs) is back and running back Demi Sumo-Karngbaye is a tough runner (6 YPC, 3 TDs).

Quarterback Jordan Travis and FSU's trio of running backs will have their hands full against a defense that allows less than 100 yards on the ground per game. The Wolfpack have three capable linebackers and a few defensive linemen that the offensive line will need to stall after struggles up front last week.

In the end, I think North Carolina State's defense will be too much for Florida State. The Seminoles were too inconsistent on offense against Wake Forest for my liking.

Season record: 3-2

NC State 21, Florida State 17

Logan Robinson (@LogansTwitty)

Florida State hurt themselves plenty in its game last weekend against Wake Forest and Sam Hartman. Mistakes leading to penalties that ended up being almost 100 yards in total. Something uncharacteristic we've seen from this football team to start the season.

How will they respond? Is this team over that loss? Can Alex Atkins and his offensive line bounce back after a poor performance against an aggressive defense with NC State? There's a good chance this can happen but it will come down to leaders and who will step up on the road for the team. To me, two players need to have a big game on Saturday night. Jared Verse for pressure and Johnny Wilson on the passing attack, especially in the redzone. Wilson needs to be targeted once again at a high level and take advantage of his height over the Wolfpack's defensive back room.

This will be the first game for Jordan Travis against NC State in his career, something worth mentioning. I think that is going to be a game changer for FSU on offense as it's been quite successful while on the road this season.

Last week I went against my gut and picked FSU to win over Wake Forest and sadly was wrong. I'm going to go with my gut again but sadly it's going in the Wolfpack's favor.

Season record: 4-1

NC State 28, Florida State 24

Austin Veazey (@NolesVikesVeaz)

I said before the season in the podcast that I didn’t really believe the NC State hype, and I still really don’t. Their offense has performed well below what people expected, and it’s been their defense that has helped them win games. They’re holding teams to just over 3 years per rush, but also should’ve lost to East Carolina. It’s a weird bunch. I’m taking the ‘Noles to exorcise some demons in this one.

Season record: 3-2

Florida State 24, NC State 20

Charleston Bowles (@Cbowles01)

Despite my prediction, head coach Mike Norvell and the ‘Noles have the ingredients to pull off an upset. I’m expecting Florida State to match the physicality of the Wolfpack and hit a few big offensive plays throughout the game. However, the uncertainty at kicker is concerning and I’m not sure every redzone trip ends in points. Florida State’s secondary could prove me wrong, but I think redshirt junior quarterback Devin Leary and the Wolfpack offense have their way through the air.

Season record: 4-1

NC State 28, Florida State 23

John Jenkins (@_jmj4_)

Florida State looks to bounce back this week vs NC State. To be honest I liked the matchup vs the Wolfpack more than Wake Forest. I think Jordan Travis and company will be prepared after a strong week of practice and after a tough loss I think the Noles get it done this weekend.

Season record: 5-0

Florida State 27, NC State 21

Maddox Nebel (@MaddoxNebel)

in a pivotal game against the Wolfpack, the 'Noles will need to dial up the best pressure they can on defense to hinder NC State's offense.

Season record: 4-1

Florida State 24, NC State 21

Jon Conahan (@JonConahan)

The Seminoles might have had a disappointing loss to Wake Forest, but I think this team is different. I expect them to come out and look like the same team we saw dominate the first few weeks of the season against good opponents. Give me the Seminoles here winning this one.

Season record: 4-1

Florida State 28, NC State 17

Jacob Stevens (@Jacob_Stevens26)

Travis leads the 'Noles on a game winning drive.

Season record: 4-1

Florida State 27, NC State 24

Dillon Riera (@13d_riera)

Here we stand on the verge of another week of college football, and despite the Seminoles' recent loss at home, what a blessing it is to have college football in full swing. Now in the meat of their schedule, the 'Noles have yet another tough matchup against another ACC Atlantic rival in the hunt for a divisional title. This Saturday, Florida State will travel to Carter-Finley Stadium and face off against the #14 ranked NC State Wolfpack.

For the second time this season, Florida State will take the field against a ranked, ACC Atlantic opponent coming off of a loss to the Clemson Tigers. While that's not really a factor that provides NC State with a quantitative advantage (it's just a fun thing to point out), it does mean that the Seminoles will, no doubt, get the Wolfpack's best as NC State aims to remain in contention for the divisional title. The Seminoles are also looking to bounce back this week after suffering their first loss of the season against Wake Forest last weekend, and the 'Noles will have to do so against a Wolfpack team that has won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

NC State Head Coach David Doeren has returned the Wolfpack football program to prominence in the ACC and the team has become a force to be reckoned with year in and year out. Behind esteemed quarterback Devin Leary, the NC State offense has found success through the air averaging 251.8 passing yards per game, which ranks 58th in the nation. Leary has racked up 1,135 passing yards and 10 TDs this far into 2022, but, surprisingly, he has done so by finding success in the intermediate and short passing game. Disrupting Devin Leary will be a high priority for the Florida State defense, and the recent trend of pass rushing success from Jared Verse will need to continue on Saturday night. However, the Seminoles cannot have a one-track mind when it comes to rushing the quarterback because the NC State offense relies heavily on the screen game. The Wolfpack like to get their running backs involved in the pass game, which could cause fits for Defensive Coordinator Adam Fuller if not schemed properly. Once again, this approach is contingent on the Seminoles shutting down an NC State running attack that ranks 94th in the nation in rushing yards per game. Something FSU struggled to do against Wake Forest due, largely in part, to the injuries on the interior defensive line. The defense for Florida State will also have to show improvement on 3rd and 4th down against the Wolfpack after yielding 10 of 18 and 3 of 3, respectively, against the Demon Deacons in last week's matchup. If they're not disciplined and not adequately prepared, this is a skillful and experienced NC State offense that will find ways to methodically break down the FSU defense without having to rely on explosive plays.

While Devin Leary is a star in his own right and while the NC State offense is among the best in the league, it's the Wolfpack defense that is widely considered to be the best group on the team. NC State's defense ranks third in the ACC allowing just 94.4 rushing yards per game. Their success in run prevention is a direct result of their ability to clog the interior of the line and trust their speedy linebackers with containing the outside. FSU's offensive line, despite showing improvement year over year, is already short-staffed due to injury, which provides the NC State defense with a favorable matchup. However, the trio of running backs in the backfield for the Seminoles (Ward, Benson, and Toafili), combined with quarterback Jordan Travis' ability to run effectively, could stretch the Wolfpack defense out. If you factor in FSU's recent success passing the ball and the fact that the Wolfpack yield over 185 passing yards per game, then Mike Norvell's offense just might be diverse enough to keep NC State on their toes. Of course, the Seminoles must avoid the pitfalls their offense made in the first half of the Wake Forest game and find ways to extend drives, limit turnovers, and put points up on the board (yes, that includes making field goals). Wasted opportunities and empty drives are not going to get the job done against a quality NC State defense.

According to experts across the nation, this is NC State's game to lose. The spread currently sits at -3 in favor of the Wolfpack, and ESPN's FPI gives them a 60.5% win probability. Traveling into Carter-Finley has never been an easy task for Florida State; a task that becomes more daunting at prime time in front of a packed house and a national audience. This is a game that the Seminoles can win, but only if they play a clean game. After what we saw last week, there are holes on this Seminole team that need to be addressed, and I don't know if one week was enough time to do so. I think the 'Noles come out and play competitive football from the get go and push this game to the wire. Just like last week, there will be opportunities for FSU to make the necessary plays to win this game. However, it is my belief that empty drives by the Florida State offense early and miscues by the defense down the stretch will give the NC State Wolfpack just enough leverage to defend home field and send FSU packing with a loss.

Season record: 2-1

NC State 31, Florida State 24

CONSENSUS: Florida State (5-4)

Stick with NoleGameday for more coverage of Florida State football throughout the season.

What's next for the Florida State Seminoles? Join thousands for FREE to not miss out on any breaking news or recruiting latest by clicking this link or texting our number (850) 616-8661!

Follow NoleGameday on Twitter and Facebook