FSU Basketball looks to avoid 0-3 ACC start as NC State comes to Tallahassee

Florida State has put up two strong efforts against teams from North Carolina to start ACC play, but they were unable to come away with upset wins over UNC or Duke. They now get a third straight opportunity against a top ACC team from the Triangle Area, as NC State comes to Tallahassee on Saturday afternoon.

FSU has played with great energy and effort recently, but they need to actually get a win at some point, and this may be a tough one to win.

This game will be at 12 p.m. EST on the ACC Network, live from the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida.

Dec 6, 2025; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; NC State Wolfpack head coach Will Wade looks on before the first half of the game against UNC Asheville Bulldogs at Lenovo Center. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

NC State Wolfpack Breakdown (11-5 Overall, 2-1 ACC)

NC State is in its first year under head coach Will Wade, who is back in power conference basketball after a few years at McNeese State, which comes after he was let go by LSU for the infamous wiretap scandal back in the day, and that all seems so silly now, given the current state of NIL. He's a great basketball coach, and NC State has a very talented team this year, even if they've been a little lackluster record-wise.

Their five losses are all from teams inside the KenPom top 55: Virginia (17), Kansas (18), Auburn (38), Seton Hall (46), and Texas (51). The Texas loss may not be the most redeeming, but they have also been able to beat Ole Miss, VCU, and Boise State in non-conference play.

So, ACC play has been a little wake-up call for them. They controlled Wake Forest throughout the contest, were dominated by Virginia, and didn't exactly put away a bad Boston College team. They will have a chance to build some wins here against FSU and Georgia Tech, but it gets a lot harder after that.

This is a really good three-point shooting team, one of the best in the country. The five players who have started the most games are shooting a combined 43% from three-point range. But one of those players will be out this game, as they ruled out Tre Holloman due to an ankle injury, who was averaging 10.2 PPG while shooting 43.5% from deep.

NC State's starting lineup may be a little undersized, but they have some really balanced scoring. Even with Holloman out, they have four players averaging between 12.3 and 14.3 PPG.

It starts with Darrion Williams, who was a two-time All-Big 12 selection at Texas Tech. He's smooth and steady, leading the team in scoring while shooting an efficient 42.5% from three. He's one of the few players on this roster who take more twos than threes, though. He's not the greatest playmaker, and you want him to put the ball on the floor, but he can beat you in a variety of ways.

Quadir Copeland started his career at Syracuse and was solid, transferred to McNeese, and has now followed Will Wade, where he has become a legitimate star, averaging 13.8 PPG and 6.1 APG. He's got great size for the kind of playmaker he is at 6'6", which makes him a matchup nightmare.

Paul McNeil Jr. is a SHOOTER. 77% of his shots come from behind the arc, and he's making them at a 41.2% rate, shooting over 7 of them per game. You have to close out hard on him, or he will light you up.

Ven-Allen Lubin was at UNC last year and was mostly underwhelming, but he's fit in really well just down the street at NC State. He's back to how he looked at Vanderbilt his sophomore season, averaging 12.3 PPG and 6.8 RPG. He's still not a great interior presence on defense, but they have some great perimeter defenders who make it tough to get to the rim, which is why they're allowing teams to shoot so many threes (more about this later).

With Holloman out, Alyn Breed will step into the lineup, who isn't a very efficient scorer. Matt Able is a very capAble shooter (I'm sorry), former Seminole Jerry Deng is also not afraid to let it fly, and Musa Sagnia is a decent backup big who rebounds well.

NC State wins and loses games at the three-point line. They're shooting an incredible 38.9% from three as a team, while allowing teams to shoot 33.3% from deep. But only eight teams in the country are allowing a higher three-point rate than NC State. They can make it hard for offenses to drive against them, so teams are having to fire off threes late in the shot clock. FSU will try to work for early threes, but it may be a struggle to generate easy ones. NC State also does a great job controlling the turnovers, forcing them at a high rate, while not turning it over often on offense. That's a battle FSU would like to flip.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (7-8 Overall, 0-2 ACC)

Florida State gave Duke everything they could handle a week ago, but the key will be to carry over that kind of shooting. They shot 14/30 in that game, which is only the second time this year that they've shot better than 40% from deep in a game. For them to have any kind of success in ACC play, they have to be able to hit threes. They've made it known that's how they're going to play.

They're also going to need to force turnovers at a high rate. They forced Duke into a turnover rate of 21.5%, but they only forced UNC turnovers at an 11.5% rate. NC State has done a tremendous job taking care of the basketball this year, only having three games where they turn it over more than 20% of the time, and they're going to be without one of the players who has turned it over the most.

Robert McCray V and Chauncey Wiggins have to play at high levels, much like they did against Duke. They can't play how they did at UNC, where Wiggins tanked the first half, and McCray turned it over 7 times. The two best players have to lead the way, and those are the two best players.

The defensive effort will have to be better overall, though. Florida State has really struggled to defend without fouling this season, and it doesn't help that they don't have a center they can rely on. For as hard as Alex Steen plays, he's just not that talented, and he's only 6'8". This is a game where that could be negated, as NC State's Ven-Allen Lubin is also only 6'8".

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Robert McCray V
G: Martin Somerville
G: Lajae Jones
F: Chauncey Wiggins
F: Alex Steen

NC State

G: Alyn Breed
G: Paul McNeil
G: Quadir Copeland
F: Darrion Williams
F: Ven-Allen Lubin

3 Keys to the Game

Three-Point Differential

Teams have shot an ABSURD amount of threes against NC State, making them about 33.3% of the time. The teams that have shot well from deep have given them issues, though. 4 of their 5 losses have come from their opponents shooting better than 35% from deep against them, and of their two wins when teams hit that mark, one was just an 8-point win over a dreadful Boston College team.

On the flip side, NC State is a strong shooting team itself. They're shooting 38.9% from three this year, and their top three scorers are all hitting threes on at least a 40% clip. FSU's defense has to be ready to defend beyond the arc.

Control the Defensive Glass

NC State isn't a great rebounding team, but you can't allow them to get extra possessions. All five of their losses have come down with an offensive rebound rate of less than 25%. Ven-Allen Lubin and Musa Sagnia are their best offensive rebound threats.

Dominate the Turnovers

FSU can be a little lax with the ball, especially Robert McCray V. He has the ball in his hands a lot, so it's only natural that he turns it over sometimes. But it can't be too many. And if they can find a way to force at least a 20% turnover rate against NC State, that'll be a great way for them to give themselves a chance.

Game Prediction

NC State is favored by 5.5 points, with an over/under of 161.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

Noon games can be sleepers for road teams, and FSU is bound to pick someone off, but I do think NC State's style of play can nullify what FSU does best. Plus, my picking blowouts have led to FSU playing some teams close. I don't thinkg this will be a blowout, per se, but NC State should win this high-scoring affair.

NC State 90, Florida State 80

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