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Georgia Football Gets Oklahoma Prediction From ESPN, but It Isn't Quite Right

A week ago the Worldwide Leader gave the Dawgs a 80.4% chance of winning the game.
Dean Legge|
Georgia Football RB Chauncey Bowens celebrates with QB Gunner Stockton.
Georgia Football RB Chauncey Bowens celebrates with QB Gunner Stockton. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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Georgia Bulldogs

ATHENS - Georgia Football got a prediction from ESPN for the Dawgs’ fight with the Oklahoma Sooners this Saturday.

The No. 2 Bulldogs took out Arkansas 45-17 a week ago while the Sooners struggled with New Mexico. The Oklahoma-Georgia Football game will be televised by ESPN at 3:30. A week ago the Worldwide Leader gave the Dawgs a 80.4% chance of winning the game.

This week the percentage chance jumped up to 83.4%. Oklahoma’s struggles over the last two weeks probably have more to do with the slight jump in the numbers than anything else. But ESPN’s predictor could be a little low based on data collected over during Kirby Smart’s time as head coach at Georgia.

Georgia Football coach Kirby Smart looks on during warmups.
Georgia Football coach Kirby Smart looks on during warmups. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Sooners come into the game as a two-touchdown underdog according to FanDuel. Over the last 11 seasons, Smart’s Bulldogs have played 22 games as favorites anywhere from 12 to 16.5 points. The Bulldogs are 24-3 in those game straight up - giving Georgia around a 85% chance to win the game should those numbers be taken into consideration - meaning ESPN’s model could be slightly low for the matchup.

In addition, Tuesday’s confirmation from Oklahoma coach Brent Venables that star defensive lineman David Stone very well could miss this weekend’s showdown Between the Hedges. It is unclear if ESPN’s model takes in-week injuries into consideration.

Stone left Monday’s practice in Norman with a knee injury, Venables confirmed.

"He ran his knee into a scout-team player during a jog-through, and it kind of popped out," Venables said Tuesday during a press conference. "We'll see where he's at. The X-rays were positive, I guess, in reporting the news, so that's all I'm doing — reporting the news. But he said his pain was about a two out of 10 right now, so we'll kind of go from there."

ESPN's prediction: Georgia Football vs. Oklahoma Sooners

According to FanDuel, UGA is a considerable favorite to win the game. The Bulldogs are listed as 14-point favorites over Oklahoma. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives Georgia an 83.4% chance to beat Oklahoma. That give the Sooners a 16.6% chance to topple the Bulldogs at home.

What about the rest of the season?

The games listed below are the percentages that ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives Georgia Football to win each of the remaining games on the schedule as of September 22, 2026.

83.4% - vs. Oklahoma
94.5% - vs. Vanderbilt
58.4% - at Alabama
86.5% - vs. Auburn
82.9% - vs. Florida
70.5% - at Ole Miss
91.3% - vs. Missouri
83.3% - at South Carolina
96.5% - vs. Georgia Tech

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Dean Legge
DEAN LEGGE

After two-plus decades of covering the Georgia Bulldogs and the SEC, Dean Legge is one of the definitive voices in Athens and beyond. Legge has authored two books - DAWGSTRUCTION and DOUBLE DAWGS - with each chronicling Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs' run to national titles in 2021 and 2022. Legge has been a Heisman Trophy voter since 2005 and a Biletnikoff Award voter since 2009. He’s covered SEC Championships, Peach Bowls, Orange Bowls, Sugar Bowls, the Rose Bowl Game, College Football Playoff National Championship Games, the NCAA Tournament, the College World Series as well as a slew of college football, basketball and baseball games. Legge graduated from Coker College in 1999 with a degree in Political Science. He played both tennis and basketball for the Cobras. After graduating, Legge completed his academic career at the University of Georgia where he earned a Master of Public Administration from the School of Public and International Affairs in 2001. In 2008, Legge was elected President of the Coker College Alumni Association. He served on the Board of Trustees at Coker from 2009 to 2017 and was a member of the Executive Committee, Student Services and Enrollment Committee and Athletic Committee in that time. Legge is a native of Tucker, Georgia.

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