NCAA Tournament Bracketology: Where Gonzaga's resume stacks up

The Bulldogs have strong computer numbers, but their strength of record is currently a blemish on their NCAA Tournament resume

Gonzaga head coach Mark Few. | Photo by Erik Smith, Myk Crawford

With the exception of the media and coaches polls, most college basketball analytic websites have Gonzaga slotted somewhere near the top of their respective rankings.

The Bulldogs (16-7, 7-3 WCC) haven't been featured in the last three editions of the Associated Press Top 25 poll, however, they're still hovering around the top 10 of notable sorting tools like ESPN BPI, KenPom and the NET due in large part to their efficiency ratings and collection of notable wins in nonconference play.

Once again the Zags rank among the top five teams in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom, which they've done every season since 2018-19, while boasting the second-highest scoring offense in the country at 88.2 points per game (Alabama is No. 1 at 90.2). Led by the nation's leader in assists, Ryan Nembhard, Gonzaga tops the country in assists per game (19.7) and assist-to-turnover ratio (2.0). The Bulldogs are also fifth in field goal percentage (50.0%) and sixth in free throw percentage (79.5%).

Gonzaga's defensive numbers have dipped considerably since nonleague play, though the Bulldogs still sit among the top 50 teams in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom.

Most teams that have a top-five offense coupled with a top-50 defense are usually in the conversation for at least a 5-seed, if not better, with regard to their NCAA Tournament aspirations. But after dropping a third game in West Coast Conference play, the Zags' postseason outlook is trending in the opposite direction.

Following last Saturday's 62-58 loss to Saint Mary's, Gonzaga was dropped down to the 9-seed line in the latest projections from ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi. Similarly, CBS Sports' Jerry Palm had the Zags on the 10-seed line in his updated field. Per Torvik, the Bulldogs are on a course for an 8-seed with a 94.8% chance of earning an at-large bid based on resume projections.

While some in the national media are ready to sound the alarms, the computers don't appear to be as skeptical of the Bulldogs — except when it comes to their resume. The NCAA's primary sorting tool to evaluate teams, the NET, plays a key role in establishing a team's at-large resume through the use of a quadrant system to determine the quality of wins and losses. Gonzaga, ranked No. 13 overall in the NET, is just 2-6 in the first quadrant, which the NET defines as home games against opponents ranked No. 1-30, neutral games against teams ranked No. 1-50 and away games against teams ranked No. 1-75.

Quad 1 and quad 2 wins are valuable to improving a team's NET ranking, as opposed to quad 3 and quad 4 victories. Conversely, quad 3 and quad 4 losses can stand out as a blemish on a team's resume. Gonzaga is 3-1 in quad 2 games and a combined 11-0 against all other teams outside the first two quadrants, however, its lack of high-quality wins to this point in the season isn't helping its postseason case.

The Zags rank No. 52 in the country in strength of record and No. 49 in wins above bubble, a new metric to the NET this season that judges a team's wins and losses based on how a bubble team would fare against that same schedule. In Torvik's wins above bubble feature, Gonzaga is No. 50 in the country.

The Bulldogs still have a handful of opportunities to collect high-quality wins during the final month of the regular season, including two quad 2 games (vs. San Francisco, at Washington State) plus three straight quad 1 contests down the stretch against Saint Mary's, at Santa Clara and against San Francisco at the Chase Center.

Gonzaga's pair of quad 1 victories came in a 38-point blowout over Baylor on opening night, followed later by a road win at San Diego State. The Zags' trio of quad 2 wins came against Indiana, Arizona State and Oregon State.

MORE GONZAGA NEWS & ANALYSIS

• College basketball analyst: ‘It’s time to sound some alarms with Gonzaga’

• WCC basketball power rankings: Big week looms for Gonzaga, San Francisco

• What Gonzaga's Graham Ike, Ryan Nembhard said after loss vs. Saint Mary's

• What Gonzaga's Mark Few said after loss vs. Saint Mary's

• Saint Mary's Gaels 62, Gonzaga Bulldogs 58: Live score recap, highlights

• Gonzaga's Mark Few on Saint Mary's coach Randy Bennett: 'He's built a heck of a program down there'

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