NCAA Tournament Midwest Region picks: Can Gonzaga reach the Sweet 16 again?

The Bulldogs seek their 10th straight trip to the Sweet 16 as the No. 8 seed in the Midwest Region

Cole Forsman | Mar 18, 2025

Gonzaga men's basketball team. / Photo by Erik Smith, Myk Crawford

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Gonzaga Bulldogs

Some of the best matchups and storylines to follow during the 2025 NCAA Tournament could come from the 16-team pod in the Midwest Region.

Two teams looking to advance to the Sweet 16 and extend their respective streaks of making it to the second weekend — Gonzaga and Houston — could potentially square off in a marquee matchup in the second round. The 8-seeded Bulldogs have made it to the last nine Sweet 16s, tied for the longest such streak since 1985, while the 1-seeded Cougars are seeking their sixth consecutive appearance in the Sweet 16.

On the other side of the bracket, No. 2 seed Tennessee has set itself up for the program's first Final Four berth after making the Elite Eight last season. No. 3 seed Kentucky, meanwhile, looks to wash away last season's painful loss to 14-seed Oakland in the first round.

Here's a look and a prediction for each of the matchups in the Midwest Region .

Midwest Region first-round predictions: Wichita, Kansas (Thursday)

1-seed Houston (30-4) vs. 16-seed SIU Edwardsville (22-11), 11 a.m. PT on TBS

SIU Edwardsville, which joined the Division-I ranks in 2008, is one of the four first-time NCAA Tournament participants in this year's field. Brian Barone's Cougars took home the Ohio Valley Conference tournament championship for the first time in program history, led by the league's player of the year, Ray'Sean Taylor (19.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.8 apg). But Kelvin Sampson's Cougars, on the other hand, are on a quest for a fifth consecutive appearance in the Sweet 16, and it likely won't cease in what would be a stunning first-round upset from Intrust Bank Arena.

Houston advances to face the winner of Gonzaga/Georgia in the round of 32.

Prediction: No. 1 Houston 82, No. 16 SIU Edwardsville 60

8-seed Gonzaga (25-8) vs. 9-seed Georgia (20-12), 1:35 p.m. PT on TBS

One of the more intriguing first-round matchups in the entire field is between a veteran Gonzaga squad and a talented Georgia team that finished 10th place in a loaded SEC.

Mike White's Bulldogs went 8-10 in league play, though also consider that they had the toughest conference schedule of any SEC team according to KenPom. Boasting one of the tallest teams in the tournament based on average height, Georgia ranks top 20 in the country in offensive rebound rate and has managed to keep its opponents off the boards on the other end as well, yielding just 20.9 defensive rebounds on average (No. 8 in the country).

The SEC's Bulldogs are led by Asa Newell, a 6-foot-11, 220-pound freshman who puts up 15.3 points and grabs 6.8 rebounds per game. Keeping him off the glass will be paramount for the Zags if they're to advance to the second round. Gonzaga is 1-7 when it loses the rebounding battle this season, but after coming away victorious over Saint Mary's despite being outrebounded by 15 in the West Coast Conference tournament finale, there's reason to believe the Zags can find more than one way to pull out a win in crunch time.

Steered by one of the game's steadiest point guards in Ryan Nembhard, the Bulldogs survive and advance to take on Houston in the round of 32.

Prediction: No. 8 Gonzaga 79, No. 9 Georgia 72

Midwest Region first-round predictions: Providence, Rhode Island (Thursday)

5-seed Clemson (27-6) vs. 12-seed McNeese (27-6), 12:15 p.m. PT on truTV

Will Wade's Cowboys roll through the Southland Conference once again, sweeping the regular season and conference tournament titles to clinch the program's second consecutive appearance in the NCAA Tournament? McNeese is riding the nation's fourth-longest active win streak (11) and has won 19 of its last 20 since dropping five games in nonleague play, three of which came against NCAA Tournament teams.

The Cowboys continue to rise in the mid-major ranks under Wade and embrace a physical style of play on the defensive end of the floor, though their lack of size upfront could prove to be their undoing when they have to block out Clemson's 6-foot-11 Viktor Lakhin, a senior from Russia who ranks top 10 in the ACC in offensive and defensive rebounding rate.

The Tigers were one of the top defensive units in the ACC thanks to the duo of Chase Hunter and Jaeden Zackery, as Clemson averages 7.5 steals and allows 65.7 points per game. Looking to bounce back from a rough second half against Louisville in the ACC tournament championship, Clemson advances past the first round for the third time under head coach Brad Brownell.

Prediction: No. 5 Clemson 73, No. 12 McNeese 65

4-seed Purdue (22-11) vs. 13-seed High Point (29-5), 9:40 a.m. PT on truTV

Led by All-American point guard Braden Smith (16.1 ppg, 8.7 apg, 4.6 rpg), the Boilermakers rank No. 7 in the country in offensive efficiency while shooting 49.0% from the field and 38.5% from 3-point range. Junior forward Trey Kaufman-Renn has taken on a great responsibility as the team's leading scorer, putting up 20.2 points per game (up from 6.4 points his sophomore year) while shooting 59.9% from the field and 42.9% from 3-point range.

Even without two-time National Player of the Year Zach Edey, now in the NBA with the Memphis Grizzlies, Purdue has too much talent across the board to be going home in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. High Point has won its last 14 games and put up solid efficiency margins on offense this season, though the Panthers' first experience in the NCAA Tournament in school history will likely be short-lived.

Prediction: No. 4 Purdue 77, No. 13 High Point 66

Midwest Region first-round predictions: Milwaukee (Friday)

6-seed Illinois (21-12) vs. 11-seed Texas/Xavier winner, 6:45 p.m. PT on CBS

Brad Underwood and the Fighting Illini return to the NCAA Tournament for the fifth season in a row after checking in at No. 17 in the final edition of the NCAA's NET rankings heading into Selection Sunday. Illinois won 15 games combined in the first two quadrants and had only two losses outside of quadrant 1, which was enough to warrant a No. 6 seed from the selection committee.

The Fighting Illini will await the winner of Wednesday's First Four contest between 11-seeded Texas and Xavier, though whether it's the Musketeers or Longhorns in the first round, Underwood's squad has the advantage. Illinois went 14-4 against teams ranked outside the top 40 of KenPom this season (Xavier and Texas are No. 43 and No. 44, respectfully) and features quite the freshman talent in Lithuanian forward Kasparas Jakucionis (15.0 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 4.6 apg).

Prediction: No. 6 Illinois advances

3-seed Kentucky (22-11) vs. 14-seed Troy (23-10), 4:10 p.m. PT on CBS

The Trojans' journey to their first NCAA Tournament appearance under head coach Scott Cross has been quite the story to follow. Troy, picked to finish third in the Sun Belt Conference preseason poll, rattled off six straight wins to capture the league's automatic bid, capped off by a win over Arkansas State, which was picked to win the league, in a 94-81 victory from the conference tournament championship.

The last time Kentucky was put on the No. 3-seed line is still fresh in the minds of every Wildcats fan, but unlike last season's squad led by John Calipari, Mark Pope's 2024-25 squad won't fall victim to a No. 14-seed in the first round. Kentucky has already proven it can beat some of the other top teams in the country and should take care of business against Troy.

Prediction: No. 3 Kentucky 84, No. 14 Troy 72

Midwest Region first-round predictions: Lexington, Kentucky (Thursday)

7-seed UCLA (22-10) vs. 10-seed Utah State (26-7), 6:25 p.m. PT on TNT

After missing out on the tournament last season, the Bruins are more experienced and just as tough-minded on the defensive end of the floor as they have been under head coach Mick Cronin. UCLA is on pace to finish top 20 in defensive efficiency for the third time in the last four seasons, allowing 65.7 points and forcing 15.2 turnovers per game. Tyler Bilodeau (13.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg) leads the way offensively for the Bruins.

The Aggies, conversely, enter the tournament ranked No. 17 in offensive efficiency and No. 12 in 2-point field goal percentage (57.7%). An upset over the Bruins would likely require a big game from fifth-year guard Ian Martinez (16.8 ppg). Utah State went 7-1 when he scored more than 20 points this season.

Prediction: No. 10 Utah State 78, No. 7 UCLA 74

2-seed Tennessee (27-7) vs. 15-seed Wofford (19-15), 3:50 p.m. PT on TNT

Tennessee might be the most talented and balanced group in the Midwest Region outside of No. 1 seed Houston. The Volunteers, ranked No. 18 in the nation in offensive efficiency and No. 3 in defensive efficiency, are No. 5 in the NET with a combined record of 16-7 between the first two quadrants, including none outside of quad 1. In addition to taking down Auburn, Alabama and Florida in SEC play, Rick Barnes' group went 13-0 in nonleague play, highlighted by wins over tournament teams Baylor, Illinois and Louisville.

Wofford was a fun storyline to monitor as the No. 6 seed in the Southern Conference tournament that wound up winning three games in a row to clinch the automatic bid, but the Vols will move on in convincing fashion.

Prediction: No. 2 Tennessee 81, No. 15 Wofford 63