Do-or-Die: Three Keys for Illinois to Make a Deep NCAA Tournament Run

Illinois (21-12) will enter the NCAA Tournament as a 6 seed, a dark horse and, above all, a wild card. Drawing the winner of the Texas-Xavier play-in game in their first-round matchup, the Illini are set to begin their postseason trek Friday night in Milwaukee.

Here are three “do-or-dies” for the Illini – all must-haves in the NCAAs that will determine whether they settle for an early bounce or are one of the last contestants standing at the Big Dance:

Win the three-point line

In its 12 defeats this season, Illinois “lost” the battle beyond the arc – meaning, the Illini shot a worse percentage from three-point range than their opponents – in 10 of them. Through 33 games, it has become clear that the Illini can’t be counted on to consistently knock down the long ball. so it would be naive to assume they can shoot their way to a national championship. With 17 games of double-digit threes made, the Illini are capable of getting hot – but their longest such stretch is four games, and that was back in November.

B1G MAN 3

📺: @BigTenNetwork pic.twitter.com/qpTkRuuHpZ
— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) March 14, 2025

Instead, there's another way: guard the three-point line like Fort Knox. Sure, opponents can get into a rhythm from deep, but Illinois has already shown it has the capability to consistently lock down the arc, holding opponents to 27.2 percent from three through its first 13 games. When the Illini communicate, close out hard and recover quickly, they're very difficult to beat by outshooting them.

As long as Illinois can stay within the ballpark of its opponents from long range, whether both squads are in the low 20s or high 40s, it has enough advantages elsewhere to make up any slight percentage deficit.

Control the glass

After leading the country in rebounding margin for the majority of the season, the Illini lost big man Morez Johnson Jr. to a broken wrist – and consequently dropped the battle of the boards in four straight outings.

But even without Johnson, Illinois rebounded – pun absolutely intended – to dominate Michigan on the glass (plus-11) and control the boards against Purdue. And in the two games since Johnson's return, the Illini have enjoyed an average rebounding margin of plus-13.

The clean up crew came to Ann Arbor.

We secured 43 boards en route to knocking off No. 15 Michigan. pic.twitter.com/wNtLKAOBhY
— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) March 2, 2025

With a 1-6 record on the season when losing on the glass, Illinois must continue to control games in that area. And now, with Johnson healthy and rounding into shape, there’s no reason to expect the Illini won’t.

Limit turnovers

As is the case with any basketball team at any level, turnovers often translate to losses. The Illini are no different. Of their 12 losses, 11 saw them commit double-digit turnovers – with the majority coming from the hands of lead guard Kasparas Jakucionis.

Expecting Illinois to keep its turnover total in the single digits every game would be Ludacris (fun fact: the rapper and actor was born in Champaign!). But the team must eliminate the careless mistakes – what would be described in tennis as unforced errors – Illini fans have witnessed too often this season. Specifically, Jakucionis (3.6 turnovers per game) can win back a couple extra possessions per game for the Illini by simply playing within himself and avoiding over-dribbling.

Do-or-Die: Three Keys for Illinois to Make a Deep NCAA Tournament Run

Win the three-point line

Control the glass

Limit turnovers

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

Plotting Illinois Basketball's Path to a National Championship

Which Opponent Should Illinois Fans Want: Xavier or Texas?

Why The Athletic Has Illinois in the Sweet 16 – and Why the Ride Ends There