ESPN's Metric Has Unexpected Prediction for Illinois' Big Ten Opener at Ohio State

The Illini would seemingly be heavily favored against the Buckeyes, but that's not the reality – at least per ESPN's analytics

Dec 6, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood yells to his team against the Tennessee Volunteersduring the first half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Playing on the road in the Big Ten is one of the most unenviable tasks in college basketball. The power of a stadium loaded with tens of thousands of alums, locals and students attempting to will their team to victory is shockingly effective.

And the conference has some of the toughest venues in the sport: Purdue’s Mackey Arena, Michigan State’s Breslin Center, Illinois’ State Farm Center. Ohio State’s Value City Arena? Doesn't exactly register high on the list.

ESPN's analytics with unexpected prediction for Illinois-Ohio State

Dec 14, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts during the first half against the Tennessee Volunteers at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

But this season may be different, at least if the prediction of ESPN’s analytics are to be believed. Despite the Illini sitting at 13th in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index rankings and the Buckeyes slotting at No. 26, it appears as though Tuesday night’s outing between the pair of programs is a toss-up. 

ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Illinois a 50.5 percent chance of winning on the road, while Ohio State has a 49.5 percent chance of staving off the visitors. Essentially, it’s a coin flip of a game – again, at least according to ESPN’s analytics.

To clear up any uncertainty, we’re not saying Ohio State isn’t an intimidating location for visiting teams. The Buckeyes faithful may channel much of their efforts towards the football team, but they certainly show up for their hoops squad.

Nevertheless, Value City Arena is no Mackey. But Tuesday will be the first true road test for Illinois this year. (The UConn matchup in New York City was close, but not quite.) That means it will be the very first time Keaton Wagler, David Mirkovic and Mihailo Petrovic play an official road game in their college careers – and it will also be the first taste of Big Ten action for Andrej Stojakovic and Zvonimir Ivisic.

With all that mind, the prediction may not exactly be outlandish – but it is a surprise. The Illini are better offensively, defensively and on the glass – or at least they should be. But history has proven strange things can happen to Big Ten visitors.

Conference games show the real character of a team, offering a glimpse into what a club is truly made of. We know that Illinois has the talent and ability to walk into Columbus and cruise past Ohio State. But can the Illini actually do it? Are they mature and consistent enough yet to go on the road and control a game from opening tip to final buzzer?

We’ll find out on Tuesday night. But one could safely say there’s a better than 50 percent chance the answer to those questions will be a resounding “yes."