Three Instant Observations From Illinois Basketball's 79-68 Win at Northwestern

Chicago's northern suburbs have been a strange stumbling block in recent years for Illinois, which had entered Wednesday's road matchup against Northwestern having lost of each of its past three at Welsh-Ryan Arena. The travel isn't bad, and the Wildcats haven' exactly been world-beaters lately, so what gives?

The 13th-ranked Illini (14-3, 5-1 Big Ten) didn't so much solve the problem as skirt it Wednesday in Evanston, carving out a lead and holding on for a 79-68 win – despite the Wildcats' best efforts to rag-doll the proceedings from the visitors' grasp down to the final minutes.

Illinois' dominance in the usual areas – rebounding and free throws – disappeared against Northwestern, and even a key category that stood out (defensive field-goal percentage) was a bit of a mirage. The Wildcats, who repeatedly worked the ball inside off the bounce and pass, let the Illini off the hook by blowing an inordinate amount of layups and dunks, allowing Illinois to pace the points in the paint by a wide margin (34-18). Six straight wins is nothing to sneeze at, but the Illini would do well to recognize an escape job when they see one – and start correcting their issues.

Here are three more observations from Illinois' win over Northwestern:

1. Keaton Wagler may be better than the hype

Wagler's ball-handling, footwork, all-angles finishing and shooting accuracy and range all speak for themselves. He entered Wednesday's game in Evanston averaging team highs of 15.7 points (on 46.2 percent field-goal shooting) and 3.8 assists, and his 22 points (on 8-for-17 shooting) were the difference against the Wildcats.

13 second-half points for the freshman!

📺: @BigTenNetwork pic.twitter.com/hBXakzVL9Z
— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) January 15, 2026

But it's impossible to quantify what Wagler's poise and timing have meant to the Illinin. Forget that he's an 18-year-old freshman. The moments this season when Wagler hasn't played like a seasoned All-Big Ten first teamer have been rare, and without him, the Illini are aren't just a different team – they're an undeniably lesser one.

2. Illinois has a nasty habit of settling

Apologists for the Illini offense will point to a second-half sequence in which Tomislav Ivisic and David Mirkovic sank back-to-back threes to help give Illinois a 38-33 halftime cushion. But that's willfully ignoring literally everything that came before it.

When Northwestern pulled ahead 27-25 with 4:17 to play in the half, Illinois had been shooting 2-for-16 (12.5 percent) on threes – nearly half of their total field-goal attempts up to that point. The Wildcats were switching, blitzing screen-and-rolls and on the balls of their feet defending every inch of the floor and every tick on the clock. Rather than lock horns and press their size and athleticism advantages, the Illini swung the ball around the perimeter, over-dribbled and didn't even attempt to strategically use the Wildcats' aggressiveness against them.

Back-to-back 3s for the good guys.

📺: @BigTenNetwork pic.twitter.com/d6uriQNCWh
— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) January 15, 2026

Without the benefit of Mirkovic clanking in his three, a 50-50 hook-and-hold call that swung Illinois' way and a late spurt by Kylan Boswell – who seemed to decide to finally grit his teeth and go – the visitors would have entered the break behind on the scoreboard and with zero momentum behind them. The Illini have gotten away with half-baked offense against lesser competition. It won't be good enough against the Big Ten's best.

3. Brandon Lee and Mihailo Petrovic are conspicuously absent

Illinois guard Brandon Lee — Nov 24, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Brandon Lee (1) drives to the b basket as U3 defends during the first half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Brad Underwood has squashed any second-guessing of his deep-rotation decisions, claiming that game situations are all that dictate who plays and who doesn't. In a vacuum, he's not wrong. But team's aren't built in a vacuum, and short-term choices – for better or worse – can effect long-term outcomes.

Wagler's emergence, as well as Boswell's facility as a secondary and backup ball-handler, have left very few opportunities to sprinkle Petrovic into the rotation, even sporadically. But Lee's energy, flexibility – he can theoretically play 1 through 3 – and suffocating on-ball defense are all things the Illini can use (and can make a little room for). Underwood may not want to force the issue with Petrovic (a very different player at the point than Wagler), but he'll regret not finding six minutes a game to cycle Lee in to terrorize opposing ball-handlers.