EA Sports' 'College Football 26' Simulation Predicts Illinois vs. USC

Illinois will host USC on Saturday in Champaign (11 a.m. CT, FOX) looking to wipe away the sting of last week’s embarrassing loss at Indiana. The last time a ranked Illinois team welcomed the Trojans to town was on the basketball court – when a shorthanded Illini squad fell victim to a shocking USC upset. This time, an Illinois loss wouldn’t be considered an upset – oddsmakers and ESPN’s FPI both have the Trojans as considerable favorites – but a win in Memorial Stadium would still be a big step for Lincoln Riley’s program.

Homecoming Week, Same Mission: 1-0 pic.twitter.com/p8FDBuaewL
— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) September 22, 2025

To get a sneak peek at how the matchup might play out, we fired up the trusty Xbox for another simulation. So far, our season-long sim has been right on the money, projecting Illinois to sit at 3-1 (with a loss to Indiana) heading into this matchup with an unbeaten USC. In that version, the Illini bounced back in a big way. Now, with both sides dealing with key injuries, how does the rematch unfold in the updated sim? Keep reading to find out.

Week 5 simulation: No. 21 USC at No. 23 Illinois

First quarter

Both teams opened with quick three-and-outs before Illinois found its rhythm on the ground, gashing a vulnerable USC defense. Aidan Laughery capped the drive with a 3-yard touchdown run. The Trojans answered right back, with quarterback Jayden Maiava spreading the ball around against a thin Illini secondary before finishing the drive with a touchdown pass. Illinois was on the move again as the quarter expired.

End of first: Illinois 7, USC 7

Second quarter

Sep 6, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini linebacker Gabe Jacas (17) swats the ball from Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) during the second quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer wasted no time in the second, delivering a dagger on fourth down with a deep strike to receiver Collin Dixon for the go-ahead touchdown. The Illini defense then flipped momentum, as linebacker Gabe Jacas forced a strip sack that set up a short Laughery touchdown run. USC responded with a bruising march capped by a Waymond Jordan score, but Altmyer stayed hot, this time finding receiver Justin Bowick in the red zone for another Illinois touchdown. A quick Trojan three-and-out gave Illinois time for a textbook two-minute drill, with kicker David Olano drilling a field goal at the horn.

End of second: Illinois 31, USC 14

Third quarter

The Trojans came out of the locker room sharp, mixing the run and pass before Maiava hit Makai Lemon for a short touchdown to cut the deficit to 10. But the Illini offense couldn’t be slowed. Laughery continued to punish the USC front, punching in another score to stretch the lead. As the third quarter wound down, USC was driving deep into Illinois territory, looking for life.

End of third: Illinois 38, USC 21

Fourth quarter

Sep 13, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) runs into the end zone during the second half against the Western Michigan Broncos at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Illinois firmed up to start the fourth, as USC’s drive stalled in the red zone and the Trojans settled for a field goal. The Illini offense sputtered with a three-and-out, and USC tacked on another field goal to creep closer. But a long kickoff return set up Illinois with prime field position, and Altmyer cashed in with a rushing touchdown that all but sealed the game. The Trojans added a late score to cut the margin, but it wasn’t enough to stop the Illini from securing a potentially season-saving win.

Final: Illinois 45, USC 34

Illinois on SI take

Illinois fans are holding out hope that the defense will bounce back, but that feels like a tall order this week. The secondary is banged up, and USC's high-powered offense could turn this game into a shootout in a hurry.

The good news for the Illini is that the Trojans’ defense isn’t nearly as stingy as the one they just faced in Bloomington. That should give Altmyer and the offense room to operate – and plenty of chances to put points on the board. At this stage, Illinois simply needs a win by any means necessary. If that means trading touchdowns all night, you can bet Bret Bielema won’t complain.