ESPN's Advanced Computer Metric Predicts Final Score of Illinois at Indiana

It is well established at this point: ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has no love for No. 9 Illinois. The analytical tool was low on the Illini throughout the preseason and has hardly budged through three games, as Bret Bielema’s club ranks No. 23 in the country according to FPI.

Facing Indiana on the road in Week 4, Illinois is unsurprisingly viewed with skepticism by FPI. Toss in the fact that the metric is relatively high on the Hoosiers (No. 16, compared to their No. 19 spot in the AP poll), and suddenly the Illini are quite the underdogs – again, at least as far as FPI is concerned.

ESPN has a counterpart metric, however – SP+, created and maintained by Bill Connelly – that seems to view Illinois in a better light, at No. 16. Similar to FPI, though, SP+ is even higher on the Hoosiers, ranking them at No. 13.

And given that aforementioned home-field advantage for Indiana, it inherently has the upper hand over Illinois – and the numbers, once again, reflect that.

SP+ predicts Illinois at Indiana

Sep 13, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema and quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) during the second half against the Western Michigan Broncos at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Per a post on Connelly’s X account, SP+ predicts the Hoosiers to triumph over the Illini by a final score of 28-24. The metric also gives the home squad a 60 percent chance of prevailing, with the projected margin of victory set at 3.9 (hence the predicted four-point win for IU).

WEEK 4 SP+ PICKS

Indiana 28, Illinois 24
OU 28, Auburn 21
Utah 29, Texas Tech 26
TCU 34, SMU 27
Mizzou 32, SC 18
Miami 34, Florida 23
Memphis 31, Hogs 30
Rebels 37, Angry Wave 20
Nebraska 23, Michigan 22
Ducks 49, Beavers 8
Huskies 38, Cougs 19https://t.co/Ggw5EkA67w pic.twitter.com/mbUF7Jw4ho
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 14, 2025

Is Illinois being overlooked?

Aug 29, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) during an NCAA game against the Western Illinois Leathernecks at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Imageses | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

On the one hand, it’s a bit confusing. Numbers and metrics aside – and yes, there are a lot of them – Illinois is the better team, right? Well, according to the AP poll, yes. But first of all, the AP poll, in a word, lies. Second of all, matchups (and home field) matters.

Does that mean Indiana is the better team? Not necessarily. But the Hoosiers are really good – in all three phases. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza is a next-level talent with equally talented weapons (Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr., to name a few) at his disposal. Oh, and the defense just so happens to boast two preseason All-Americans (linebacker Aiden Fisher and cornerback D’Angelo Ponds). Did we mention IU coach Curt Cignetti is one of the best in the biz?

Fortunately for the Illini, they, too, are loaded across the board. Quarterback Luke Altmyer and a talented running back trio on offense, a dynamic defense led by edge rusher Gabe Jacas and great coaching.

Luke Altmyer does it all for @IlliniFootball.

📺: FS1 pic.twitter.com/tNPg7NWNzD
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) September 14, 2025

On paper, Illinois and Indiana couldn’t really be better matched, making this contest practically a coin flip … on a neutral field and with all else being equal. But there's bad news for Bielema’s crew: Saturday’s game will take place in Bloomington, and Illini defensive back Xavier Scott will likely sit this one out. Metrics or no metrics, those are going to be tough obstacles for Illinois to hurdle.