ESPN FPI Predicts Illinois vs. Oregon: Tighter Than Expected?

It has been a weird football season in Champaign. With the departure of notable stars on both sides of the ball this offseason, the expectation was a slight step back for the program.

But the excitement sparked by transfer quarterback Katin Houser and new defensive coordinator Bobby Hauck was enough to warrant hopes for an 8-4 or 7-5 season – which, for those Illini fans with a goldfish’s memory, would still be a successful season for the program.

Through six games, though, both Houser – who had previously held up his end of the bargain – and Hauck are out, with the former breaking his hand and the latter exiting the program in unexpected fashion.

So do the Illini still have a chance of salvaging this season? And can that momentum built from a road win at Michigan State carry into a home meeting with Oregon (4-2, 2-1 Big Ten) on Saturday (2 p.m. CT, BTN)?

ESPN’s Football Power Index predicts Illinois vs. Oregon

Oct 26, 2024; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning and Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema meet after a game at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Unsurprisingly, ESPN’s FPI says no. The Illini have just a 23.0 percent chance of taking down the Ducks on Saturday. Interestingly, though, that number has actually increased since the start of the year (from 15.0 percent), despite Illinois’ disheartening first half of the 2026 campaign.

Oregon football’s 2026 struggles

The reason: Oregon has also met unexpected stumbles this year. The Ducks snuck past Boise State in their opener before falling at Oklahoma State.

Then, after cruising in its final non-conference game (84-0 over Portland State), Oregon beat USC by two touchdowns on the road. Finally, the Ducks were back – but without their star quarterback Dante Moore, who suffered a concussion in the game.

Dylan Raiola, the lauded transfer from Nebraska, answered the bell, though. He went 19-of-25 and threw for 289 yards and two scores against the Trojans.

Since then, however, Raiola has been a mess. We’re talking a "House Hoarders"-level mess. We’ll let the box score explain: Raiola went 6-for-19 for 43 yards and two interceptions (QBR of 2.7), along with a fumble in a loss against UCLA.

He then went 11-for-18 for 59 yards and one touchdown – which notably was a go-ahead score that won Oregon the game – against Nebraska. His Ducks teammates on offense (who have committed six non-Raiola turnovers in the past two games) have hardly helped.

Oregon’s offense, especially without Moore, has been a dud. But the Ducks are in luck, because their offense will meet its match against the bumbling Illini defense. That side of the ball should be quite the watch on Saturday.

Is ESPN’s assessment of Illinois-Oregon fair?

Oct 3, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema before a game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Gies Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

All things considered, does Illinois really have less than a one-in-four chance of knocking off Oregon? It's hard to imagine it being much better than that. Freshman quarterback Michael Clayton II, who was superb in his snaps at Michigan State, gives the Illini a shot. And there isn’t an offensive coordinator Illinois would rather have in Clayton’s corner than mastermind Barry Lunney Jr.

But Oregon’s defense, unlike its offense, is rock solid. It, too, has failed to meet the sky-high expectations set for the 2026 campaign, but the Ducks' D has performed much closer to its standard. No reason to be against a proven, veteran defense the likes of Oregon's against a true freshman quarterback making his first start.

So in a game in which Illinois’ best hope may be its defense, a 23.0 percent chance of winning almpost seems high for the Illini. Still, crazier things have happened. And the unknowns surrounding Clayton could make this one more interesting than expected.

Add us as a preferred source on Google