Analytics Predict Iowa's First B1G Loss is Coming

The Iowa Hawkeyes stellar 16-2 (7-0) record will be put to the test with arguably their toughest game against Maryland.

The Terrapins come into this game with a great record in their own right, 17-3 (5-3), though they've been trending in the wrong direction.

That said, ESPN Analytics isn't phased. Hours before tipoff, they give the Hawkeyes just a 35.2% chance to come out on top.

Even though Maryland has lost two of their last three, it's worth noting those are both to ranked opponents. Coming off their worst loss of the season, this is a team looking for revenge and they get to do so against a Top 10 team on their home court.

Iowa Given 35.2% Chance To Win

On the move. ✈️ pic.twitter.com/2s3z46pERJ
— Iowa Women's Basketball (@IowaWBB) January 21, 2026

Entering the Baylor, Iowa State, and UConn games, it would've been understandable why Iowa was the underdog. Other than those trio of ranked opponents, there doesn't seem to be a time where they were this at risk of coming home without a win.

This game being at the XFINITY Center changes everything. Had this been a home game for Iowa, there's no way ESPN Analytics would have them as the overwhelming underdog.

Having just watched Maryland lose by 30 points to the No. 3 team in the nation, many may wonder why that hasn't impact this game more. The answer is simple, Iowa lost to UConn in similar fashion.

While UConn and UCLA might not be the exact same team, they're the No. 1 and No. 3 ranked teams for a reason. There's levels to this, and those two stand far above the rest.

Iowa Winning Would Be An Upset?

No surprise on our top play of the week 😏@pancheros x #Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/WZ35NLKHtX
— Iowa Women's Basketball (@IowaWBB) January 21, 2026

In no world should the No. 10 team defeating the No. 15 team be considered an upset, but here we are. Hawkeyes fans wouldn't tell you this is an upset, they would tell you this is yet another game where they should get the job done.

Second year head coach Jan Jensen knows the future is bright with Addie Deal, and Hannah Stuelke is coming off an AP Player of the Week award. It's not just the AP taking notice, but Stuelke has the entire world looking her way.

Maryland has five players currently averaging double digits which tells the entire story. This is one of the deepest teams in the B1G, and they're looking to make a statement as ranked wins have seemingly eluded them this season. That said, their best win was against No. 16 Kentucky on November 26, a team that has now risen the ranks to No. 11.

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