Film Study: Why Iowa Will Upset Florida in NCAA Tournament

Taking down the No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament isn't going to be easy, but no head coach has as much tournament success as Ben McCollum.

The Iowa Hawkeyes are in good shape with him at the helm, as proven when they picked up their first tournament win in five years against Clemson.

Things didn't come easy for the Hawkeyes in that one, but it's not like they will in their second-round matchup either.

Florida is coming off a 114-point masterclass, though Prairie View A&M is nowhere near the level that Iowa is playing at. If the Hawkeyes that took down Nebraska show up in Tampa, the Gators could be in trouble.

Iowa Will Limit Their Turnovers

Marching On! pic.twitter.com/H4qI9EVWUT
— Iowa Men’s Basketball (@IowaHoops) March 21, 2026

Iowa's defense forced just one turnover against the Tigers while they turned the ball over eight times themselves. Clemson turned those eight turnovers into 11 points, but it's not like those 11 were good enough to get the job done.

Shockingly, the Knights only had seven turnovers against the Gators. Florida is known for its explosive offense, but the defense is something that has still gotten the Gators to this point.

Points off turnovers will play a huge factor in this game, so it's extremely important that Iowa protects the ball and doesn't let the No. 1 seed rattle them early.

The Hawkeyes Will Be Much Better From Three

Mar 20, 2026; Tampa, FL, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes guard Bennett Stirtz (14) shoots while defended by Clemson Tigers guard Dillon Hunter (2) in the second half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Florida went 10-for-22 against A&M while Iowa made just seven of its 25 attempts against Clemson. Stirtz was quite cold all night, and that's something that likely won't happen again.

Kael Combs also added a pair of threes as the junior guard stepped up big time in the first round. Iowa knows it needs more than just Stirtz to be involved, especially since Florida will do everything in its power to make sure the future first-round draft pick doesn't take over this game.

Cooper Koch was just 1-for-3 in the first round, but if the Gators let him heat up, they'll be in trouble. The same could be said for a guy like Alvaro Folgueiras, who provides a massive spark off the bench, even if he was just 1-5 against Clemson.

McCollum Doesn't Lose in March

Sunshine + Recovery 🔑🔋 pic.twitter.com/clN54m3nT4
— Iowa Men’s Basketball (@IowaHoops) March 21, 2026

Iowa finally has a head coach who has extensive experience winning when it matters. This is a guy who has four Division II titles and led No. 11 Drake to a first-round victory last year against No. 6 Missouri.

This is far from the same situation, but this is when McCollum is at his best, and that'll be proven at the Benchmark International Arena.

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