2023 NCAA Tournament Preview: South Regional Breakdown
To get you ready for the start of the NCAA Tournament – whether you want to win your bracket pool or just can’t get enough March Madness talk – we’re diving deep into each region of the bracket.
The No. 1 overall seed in Alabama headlines a south region that is full of firepower…and Virginia. Bama, Arizona, Baylor, Creighton, NC State, Utah State, Missouri, and on and on. If you like buckets, be locked into the south.
Biggest Storyline
The clear off-the-court storyline that has to be pointed out is Alabama and its handling of a January shooting that left a 23-year-old woman dead and its star player, Brandon Miller, without punishment after driving a loaded gun to the scene. If you’re sick of hearing this brought up every time, you better hope Bama gets knocked off early, because it’s going to be a constant talking point.
On the court, it’s going to be who can make a stop. Six of the top 20 teams in KenPom’s offensive efficiency metric are in this region. Six! Three (Baylor, Arizona, and Missouri) are in the top 10. Again, there will be lots of points, but which defense can show up? Bama and San Diego State are the only two teams with a top-10 team in terms of defensive efficiency.
Best First-Round Matchup
No. 6 Creighton vs No. 11 NC State
When Creighton is fully healthy, it is better than a six seed. Three of its losses came without rim protector Ryan Kalkbrenner. And the Blue Jays have only lost four times since the middle of January. They will face an NC State team that barely made it in but can score in bunches thanks to talented guards in Terquavion Smith, Jarkel Joiner, and Casey Morsell. There are a lot of athletes that will be on the court together in this one.
Upset Pick(s)
No. 12 Charleston vs No. 5 San Diego State
No. 10 Utah State vs No. 7 Missouri
Let’s start with Utah State. If looking at the computers, this isn’t actually an upset. Utah State is 18th in KenPom and projected to beat Missouri by four. The Aggies have one of the best offenses in the country and shoot 38.5% from three as a team, led by Steven Ashworth’s 44% shooting from deep.
Whereas Utah State has the computers behind it, Charleston has the resume. The Cougars win. Charleston is on a 10-game winning streak and has only lost three times all year, two of those being to top-100 KenPom teams. The Cougars play at a super fast pace and take a ton of threes. That’s how you can get a win – if they’re falling – in a single-elimination tournament.
Cinderella Pick (double-digit seed to make the Sweet 16 or further)
No. 12 Charleston or No. 13 Furman
We’ve already talked about Charleston. This could also be 13-seed Furman, who has the best two-point offense in the country going up against a Virginia team that is good defensively but not its typical great defensive team. Furman struggles on the defensive end, the question is if Virginia can take advantage of that. I could see one or both of these teams winning in the first round and then that means one is guaranteed to advance to the second weekend.
Dark Horse Pick (five seed or higher than could win the region)
No. 6 Creighton
This is a better team masquerading as a six seed. If you go to barttorvik.com and look at the best teams since the middle of January (I did Monday, January 16), Creighton ranks 12th, in between Marquette and Baylor. It has everything you need: a good point guard (Ryan Nembhard), a shooter (Baylor Scheierman), and a really good big man (Kalkbrenner). There’s no reason this team can’t make a run.
If this is too much like cheating for you, then I’m going with the Utah State Aggies. These guys can score.
Regional Final Prediction
No. 1 Alabama vs No. 6 Creighton
Alabama really doesn’t look like it will have much of a test until the Elite 8. Maryland and West Virginia could certainly challenge the Tide, but neither has been consistent for 40 minutes much this year. And we’ve mentioned the likelihood that Bama faces a double-digit seed in the Sweet 16.
On the other side, this could easily be Arizona, but one or two No. 2 seeds always fall before we expect them to, and since I just got done talking about how Creighton is playing like a top-three seed, I’m going with the Blue Jays. I don’t trust Baylor’s defense enough to win four straight, even though it has incredible guards.
